I have explained why it matters. There is NO reasonable explanation for it other than a "This is what these classes get."
You've reiterated that sentence many times, but repeated statement of your opinion does not an explanation make. It's fine if the answer is that there is no mechanical problem with the higher ceiling per se, and that it's just that you don't like the in-fiction connotations. It's, like, your opinion, man. I just want to be clear on the distinction.
I disagree. Due to the nature of rolling, if the ceiling is potentially higher, the floor is raised as well (at least in RAW).
Like I said to Mycroft, if all you can manipulate is the modifier then you wind up moving the floor along with the ceiling and vice versa. But we're not limited to manipulating the modifier. My earlier proposal was explicitly designed to decouple the two.
Bounded accuracy is ALL about the ceiling and keeping numbers under control.
You might be using "ceiling" differently than I am. If what you mean by ceiling is "success rate", then I agree. But to keep the success rate from getting too high, you need to keep the lowest possible rolls (what I mean by "the floor") from getting too close to DCs, or at least keep a reasonable amount of probability below the DCs that are encountered. In combat, bounded accuracy refers to limiting attack bonuses so that you don't wind up with 2s becoming hits -- at least not too often (that is, keeping the floor on rolls below most ACs) -- and limiting ACs so that you don't wind up with 19s becoming misses (that is, keeping the ceiling from falling below the AC).
Bounded accuracy has nothing to do with keeping the highest rolls from getting too high if you roll a natural 20.
If 30 is supposed to be the theoretical cap, we are getting in the realm of numbers beyond that. At +17 RAW, the average roll is 27 (approaching nearly impossible). I could go the other direction with passive perception; 20th level, WIS 20, expertise, observant = passive perception score: 32. So, "nearly impossible" is automatic.
But again, this is a question of the floor, not the ceiling. At +17, the real issue is that the floor is 18, not that the ceiling is 37. It doesn't matter at all -- not a tiny bit -- whether the ceiling is 37 or 31, unless you're encountering creatures with perception bonuses of +12 or more, since only then can they wind up with a roll between those values. And in terms of rolling stealth vs
passive perception it doesn't matter at all unless you were to encounter a creature with passive perception of 32, which ain't happening. But even if it did, so what? You now have a 6 in 400 chance of sneaking past that creature instead of a 0 in 400 chance. Game breaking?
We care about 2 for all the reasons myself and others have mentioned.
Nobody has given any mechanical reasons, though. You have an instinctive simulationist aversion to it, which is fine, but purely simulationist aversions are best fixed by changing the fluff, not the crunch, IMO.
LOL, in case you never noticed, this is what I wrote upthread we are currently doing. Expertise is +2, +3 at 7th, +4 at 14th. The other rogue player accepted this at least, over advantage, but no one really felt adding more skills or expertise selections was necessary.
I did notice; that's where I got the idea. I'm just suggesting that since doing that weakens expertise without changing any other classes, that the rogue should be compensated for it. And granting more expertise picks is a really easy way to do that without stripping away their skill-monkey identity: trade some depth for some breadth (instead of trading skill-monkey goodies for combat goodies). If you come up with some "tricks" instead, that seems fine too, but the devil's in the details.