Parmandur
Book-Friend
The initial rush seems to be over...
Pathfinder 2E Release Day Second Edition Amazon Sales Rank
The initial rush seems to be over...
It's interesting to see the numbers since this post. Years ago, when I'd talk to game store owners, they'd mention trends with hardcover books like the PF2 is seeing now: big initial bump then a dramatic drop a month or two out. I wonder if Mona thinks this is bad since he said he saw the book in the top 15 or even top 10 Fantasy games for years. It didn't make a month. Maybe it will grow in days and weeks to come? If it doesn't, I wonder if Paizo can financially support their publishing schedule.
Parmandur
Book-Friend
I don't really forsee a massive surge, but it can sell steadily for years.
Same, although the questuon for me is whether it's sustainable and are the sales at the level it needs. I'm seeing some similarities to TSR at the end of 2nd ed. While Paizo does not have the crazy number of campaigns like TSR did, I wonder if the sales are enough to support what they are publishing.
Parmandur
Book-Friend
Well, maybe, maybe not: Amazon isn't the whole story, and they are a small independently owned company, so they need less.
Kind of startling to check and see that PF2 sales have now slipped further down again from this morning, though...
I'm not sure how much I'd obsess over Amazon Fantasy Gaming rankings. Gaslands Refueled is up at #15 and Realms of Runeterra pre-sell is up at #2.
As far as all the others books - the Bestiary, Lost Omens Guide, etc... they're all behind the Fallout Cookbook lauched over a year ago, so we're likely talking it's lucky if they are selling copies in the teens per day.
I suspect Paizo is selling a few dozen CRBs a day in order to stay in the Top 100 and they probably net $25 for each of those sold. All in, they're probably netting $1000 a day selling through Amazon for all products, which is a respectable $30K/month. They are probably getting $ via BN + all the FLGS added together.
Paizo's an interesting company that will likely be around for decades. I think you first need to think about it at it's core like a virtual FLGS selling non-Pathfinder product. You can buy minis, board games, comics, Warhammer, CCGs, checkers, etc from them. Their "core principals" (Lisa, Vic, Jeff) and their warehouse and support staff could probably survive at break-even without them ever printing another Pathfinder or Starfinder book.
Then you just need to think about Pathfinder/Starfinder being break-even and self-sustaining. When you get down to it, they can survive off just Bulmahn and Jacobs cranking out rules and setting books a few times a year. Their organized play staff work inexpensively and I most adventures are volunteers writing them. At $5 a pop and all digital in-house fulfillment, they can sell two scenarios a month at 1000 downloads and PFS and SFS are each bringing in $10,000/month each to cover those developers. All-in, both Pathfinder and Starfinder could net $1M a year and have room for a few supporting staff and survive off just 1-2 rulebooks and a few setting books a year and only a few thousand AP subscribers/purchasers.
Remember they've shed a ton of veteran staff and cost since 1E - Reynolds, Brock, Sutter, Schneider, Frasier, Price, Radney-MacFarland...
As far as all the others books - the Bestiary, Lost Omens Guide, etc... they're all behind the Fallout Cookbook lauched over a year ago, so we're likely talking it's lucky if they are selling copies in the teens per day.
I suspect Paizo is selling a few dozen CRBs a day in order to stay in the Top 100 and they probably net $25 for each of those sold. All in, they're probably netting $1000 a day selling through Amazon for all products, which is a respectable $30K/month. They are probably getting $ via BN + all the FLGS added together.
Paizo's an interesting company that will likely be around for decades. I think you first need to think about it at it's core like a virtual FLGS selling non-Pathfinder product. You can buy minis, board games, comics, Warhammer, CCGs, checkers, etc from them. Their "core principals" (Lisa, Vic, Jeff) and their warehouse and support staff could probably survive at break-even without them ever printing another Pathfinder or Starfinder book.
Then you just need to think about Pathfinder/Starfinder being break-even and self-sustaining. When you get down to it, they can survive off just Bulmahn and Jacobs cranking out rules and setting books a few times a year. Their organized play staff work inexpensively and I most adventures are volunteers writing them. At $5 a pop and all digital in-house fulfillment, they can sell two scenarios a month at 1000 downloads and PFS and SFS are each bringing in $10,000/month each to cover those developers. All-in, both Pathfinder and Starfinder could net $1M a year and have room for a few supporting staff and survive off just 1-2 rulebooks and a few setting books a year and only a few thousand AP subscribers/purchasers.
Remember they've shed a ton of veteran staff and cost since 1E - Reynolds, Brock, Sutter, Schneider, Frasier, Price, Radney-MacFarland...
I would think if Paizo consolidates it definitely has the chops to be around for decades as a solid second-tier company, rather than follow the White Wolf model of huge popularity followed by collapse. Their tight focus on a single setting Golarion seemed to work well for them, though Starfinder is a bit of a departure from that, but still nominally the same universe. Compared to say '90s TSR - and most games companies - they have effective management & business skills from Lisa Stevens. They can certainly make mistakes though (Goblinworks).
Campbell
Relaxed Intensity
I think it was always going to be tough sell. They have made a game that is a lot of fun to play and I think once people get campaigns off the ground and word spreads there will be slow growth. Based on what I am seeing in various places online they actually have succeeded in getting a newer crowd into the game, but it remains a tough sell for Pathfinder players.
Some of it comes mostly down to lack of initial options. Many Pathfinder games are wedded to things that do not exist yet. I expect the Lost Omens stuff will help some folks jump on. However, I think there is a critical mass of Pathfinder players waiting for Advanced Player's Guide next August before they make their decisions. There are many players who just want more stuff before they are willing to dive in.
I expect to see some jumps in Core Rulebook sales in January with the Gamemastery Guide and again in August with the Advanced Player's Guide which will feature many of the ancestries and classes many fans consider central to the Pathfinder experience. The developers have said they really consider Pathfinder 2 a 4 Core Rulebook game. It would have probably been helpful if they could have released them closer together, but they wanted to do a dedicated play test for the classes coming in the Advanced Player's Guide which is going to take some time.
Still there are some cultural problems that are going to need to be overcome. Pathfinder 2 puts more power back into the hands of the GM. In several parts of the core rulebook they explicitly define things that are up to GM judgement and there is some consternation about this online and within my Pathfinder Society group. Rarity is something of a hotbed as well. GMs seem to be embracing this edition much quicker than players from what I have seen.
I think they do not really have much choice. They need to make it work. I do not think they are in a terrible place at the moment. It is a boutique game with some individual consumers that spend much more money than what a typical Dungeons and Dragons player spends. I personally will probably spend around $500 in the next year on the game. I have only ever spent $150 in 5 years of Fifth Edition.
They definitely do need to grow their customer base, but they needed to do that anyway. First Edition was hemorrhaging under the weight of Dungeons and Dragons. They need a current game that has a strong niche in order to stay relevant. I think they have it, but it's going to be a challenge to build up from the ground level and try to bring some more of their veteran players along.
I will have to track it down, but they did some independent acceptance testing with players who had never played a table top roleplaying game. They found that play group had a much easier time understanding the game and building characters then veterans did. I leave it to the reader to determine if that is a positive indicator or not.
Some of it comes mostly down to lack of initial options. Many Pathfinder games are wedded to things that do not exist yet. I expect the Lost Omens stuff will help some folks jump on. However, I think there is a critical mass of Pathfinder players waiting for Advanced Player's Guide next August before they make their decisions. There are many players who just want more stuff before they are willing to dive in.
I expect to see some jumps in Core Rulebook sales in January with the Gamemastery Guide and again in August with the Advanced Player's Guide which will feature many of the ancestries and classes many fans consider central to the Pathfinder experience. The developers have said they really consider Pathfinder 2 a 4 Core Rulebook game. It would have probably been helpful if they could have released them closer together, but they wanted to do a dedicated play test for the classes coming in the Advanced Player's Guide which is going to take some time.
Still there are some cultural problems that are going to need to be overcome. Pathfinder 2 puts more power back into the hands of the GM. In several parts of the core rulebook they explicitly define things that are up to GM judgement and there is some consternation about this online and within my Pathfinder Society group. Rarity is something of a hotbed as well. GMs seem to be embracing this edition much quicker than players from what I have seen.
I think they do not really have much choice. They need to make it work. I do not think they are in a terrible place at the moment. It is a boutique game with some individual consumers that spend much more money than what a typical Dungeons and Dragons player spends. I personally will probably spend around $500 in the next year on the game. I have only ever spent $150 in 5 years of Fifth Edition.
They definitely do need to grow their customer base, but they needed to do that anyway. First Edition was hemorrhaging under the weight of Dungeons and Dragons. They need a current game that has a strong niche in order to stay relevant. I think they have it, but it's going to be a challenge to build up from the ground level and try to bring some more of their veteran players along.
I will have to track it down, but they did some independent acceptance testing with players who had never played a table top roleplaying game. They found that play group had a much easier time understanding the game and building characters then veterans did. I leave it to the reader to determine if that is a positive indicator or not.
It will be tough. I'm in reach of 3 metro regions with a combined population of 21M where there used to be a thriving PFS community with over 500 players each month on a Saturday gameday. Now the stores aren't even interested in hosting and there's probably only 16 unique players playing both SFS+PFS2E in a given month. And those 16 loyalists are more interested in/playing more SFS than PFS2E.
It's a competitive market to try to make noise as a secondary fantasy TTRPG and I'd think quality would be pretty critical for that next slot. Paizo's quality really has dropped a lot in the past few years. The CRB desperately needed another week of editing ~ the degree of typos and grammar issues is pretty crazy.
The game is really Bulmahn's and the setting is really Jacob's more than anything else. Unlike say Monte Cook Games (where the owner is Monte himself, so you have the principal pouring his soul into something he majority owns), it will be hard for Paizo to retain them without significant ownership stakes. Ultimately the second place fantasy TTRPG in today's world will be the labor of love of a talented veteran who also owns the brand he's working for.
