D&D 5E Nobody Is Playing High Level Characters

According to stats from D&D Beyond, above 5th level characters start to drop off sharply, and above 10th level, the figures are very low. The exception is level 20, which looks like it's probably people creating experimental 20th-level builds.

Some of them say 0%; this isn't strictly accurate, but levels 16-19 are used by an insignificant number of players. Interestingly, there are more 3rd-5th level characters than there are 1st-2nd level.

D&D Beyond has said before that under 10% of games make it past 10th level, but these figures show the break point as being bit lower than that. DDB used over 30 million characters to compile these stats.

 

[Mistwell]

3) Assume WoTC wants to corner the market on a supplement targeting players in the 10-20 level character range and selectively released misleading statistics to their third party competitors.

Edit: oh, I meant "partners."

Your theory fails the occam's razor test though as several people have already named more likely reasons and you have no evidence supporting your theory over theirs.

 

[Tiggerunner]

Your theory fails the occam's razor test though as several people have already named more likely reasons and you have no evidence supporting your theory over theirs.

Hanlon's Razor, and my theory didn't disagree with any of the reasons people brought up.

Don't cite the deep magic to me, witch.

Hanlon's razor - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Tony Vargas]

The survey would have given WotC the shape of the distribution. From there, we... Assume that WotC could look at that distribution, and get basically the right idea.

The right basic idea is, obviously "our soon-to-be-customers don't play high level." Which had been a truism for some time.
It's the assertion that truism wasn't the result of the slow advancement, lack of challenge or ever-worsening balance, as you left the sweet spot, that I didn't find compelling.

WotC got rid of the vast exp targets after name level, and came out with an epic-level handbook, so there must've been something in their data to suggest some interest in such things.
OTOH, they contracted the sweet spot and made class balance the worst it'd ever be, spurring the community to come up with E6.

So, while we might infer what unrealesed data might have suggested based on the actions taken in response to it, it might be a mistake to assume infallibility on their part, when trying to do so, much as it might simplify the exercise.

 

[Mistwell]

Hanlon's Razor, and my theory didn't disagree with any of the reasons people brought up.

Don't cite the deep magic to me, witch.

Hanlon's razor - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Yes but that doesn't make it a good theory. "Aliens used mind control to make WOTC/DMS Guild publish a false set of data for the nefarious purpose of not educating RPG players on how to slay high level monsters which come dangerously close to being similar to the aliens who are planning to invade earth" is also a theory which doesn't disagree with the reasons people brought up - but which is not a good or likely theory. So the likelihood of the theory remains a meaningful element here in evaluating the data. I just don't see why yours is in even the top ten of likelihood.

 

[Tiggerunner]

Yes but that doesn't make it a good theory. "Aliens used mind control to make WOTC/DMS Guild publish a false set of data for the nefarious purpose of not educating RPG players on how to slay high level monsters which come dangerously close to being similar to the aliens who are planning to invade earth" is also a theory which doesn't disagree with the reasons people brought up - but which is not a good or likely theory. So the likelihood of the theory remains a meaningful element here in evaluating the data. I just don't see why yours is in even the top ten of likelihood.

Except in this case, the aliens appeared.

 

[Maxperson]

Except in this case, the aliens appeared.

I'm interested in seeing hard evidence of this.

 

[Tiggerunner]

I'm interested in seeing hard evidence of this.

Go back and re-read when I first envoked Hanlon's Razor, and why I said I changed my mind concerning rejecting it during this very forum discussion.

 

[Mistwell]

Except in this case, the aliens appeared.

Do they look like Mind Flayers? Githyanki? Beholders?

 

[Maxperson]

Go back and re-read when I first envoked Hanlon's Razor, and why I said I changed my mind concerning rejecting it during this very forum discussion.

I don't have the time or patience to dig for it. Would you link it?

 

[tetrasodium]

The right basic idea is, obviously "our soon-to-be-customers don't play high level." Which had been a truism for some time.
It's the assertion that truism wasn't the result of the slow advancement, lack of challenge or ever-worsening balance, as you left the sweet spot, that I didn't find compelling.

WotC got rid of the vast exp targets after name level, and came out with an epic-level handbook, so there must've been something in their data to suggest some interest in such things.
OTOH, they contracted the sweet spot and made class balance the worst it'd ever be, spurring the community to come up with E6.

So, while we might infer what unrealesed data might have suggested based on the actions taken in response to it, it might be a mistake to assume infallibility on their part, when trying to do so, much as it might simplify the exercise.

e6?