D&D and the rising pandemic

[WayOfTheFourElements]

The first thing that always pops into my head whenever there is a major crisis like corona is:

Now lets have a look at the stock market and see whats currently uncharacteristically floundering but wont stay that way.

Ive made a lot of money investing in fear. Its delicious.

So if you are stumped about things to do while you are locked up in your home, try spending your new found free time perusing stocks. Its what i do.

Yup. I've been shuffling around my investments as well. My new pharmacy stocks are kicking ass.

 

[Son of the Serpent]

Yup. I've been shuffling around my investments as well. My new pharmacy stocks are kicking ass.

Good man!

 

[FrogReaver]

Washington State has 4 independent deaths (counting the one nursing home as one event) and 270 detected; they are missing 90%+ of their cases.

UK appears to be on top of it actually. 1.6% death rate to infected is a sign they may be near saturation testing. The 6 deaths*80 multiplier is 480, and they have 324 positive tests; that is the right ballpark. 99% of tested are negative, which also looks like "saturation tests" and not just testing people who show up extremely sick and/or are travel-related to hot spots.

France has 33 deaths and 1800 detected cases. They are missing 90% of their infected.
Spain has 35 deaths and 1700 detected cases. They are missing 90% of their infected.

Germany has 2 deaths and 1100 detected cases. Looks good so far.

California has 2 deaths and 160 cases. Suspicious.

NY+NJ has 1 death and 180 cases. Also Suspicious.

So expect things to get bad in France, Spain and Washington State next. France and Spain if they shut down everything today will still have a bad time. Washington State could be either side of the edge.

By failing to social distance you can be killing people.

"Mild" cases include lung scarring, 6+ months of rehab, etc.

If it turns out that economic damage is more than biological, it is because people did change their behaviour. This disease is on track for 4-6% death rate among infected and 50% of population infected by christmas without measures.

With measures, 1% death rate, and less than 1% of the population infected.

Read what is going on in Italien hospitals. Look at satallite pictures of Iran. Read the description of "mild" case (does not need O2 mask?!)

4-6% death rate. No mild cases LOL. Pure Sensationalism

 

[NotAYakk]

4-6% death rate. No mild cases LOL. Pure Sensationalism

The death rate in areas where the health care system is overwealmed by the number of cases is consistently 4% or higher.

Go ahead, find me one.

Death rates where it isn't overwealmed? In the ballpark of 1%.

There are mild cases. But "mild" includes "anyone who doesn't need Oxygen to survive". It also includes someone completely asymptomatic.

Mild: Doesn't need O2 suppliment. ~85% of cases.
Moderate: Doesn't need respirator or more. ~10% of cases.
Severe: Needs a respirator. ~5% of cases.

Italy stats:

Italy: COVID cases by region 2024 | Statista

As of April 2024, Sicily's COVID cases are one of the highest among the Italian southern regions. Lombardy remains the region with the highest figure.

www.statista.com

^ cases by region

Italy: COVID deaths by region 2024 | Statista

As of April 2024, Sicily's COVID deaths are the highest among the Italian southern regions. Lombardy remains the region with the highest figure overall.

www.statista.com

^ deaths by region

DIVIDE.

Some regions are approaching 10%.

Look in Wuhan. It had a high rate there, and low in the rest of China. A big difference? Hospitals overwealmed.

Many (NOT most, many) people who get this survive with intensive medical intervention. Without that intervention, they die; we don't put people on Respirators for fun. Hospital capacity for this intervention isn't high - the US has something like 60k beds, most of them in use, and can probably cobble together a few more using gear used for surgery.

If you have 30k beds assigned to this, * 20 is 600k -- with more than 600k sick, you lose the ability to use those beds for new patients. And these beds don't teleport and neither do patients; so any one area with too many sick runs out.

They are letting people drown in their own lungs in Italy because they ran out of equipment to save them, and they have to pick which person lives and which dies, and there are 20 more people who need that equipment in the ambulances outside.

 

[Son of the Serpent]

^
Person above this post is not a sheep

 

[FrogReaver]

The death rate in areas where the health care system is overwealmed by the number of cases is consistently 4% or higher.

Go ahead, find me one.

Death rates where it isn't overwealmed? In the ballpark of 1%.

There are mild cases. But "mild" includes "anyone who doesn't need Oxygen to survive". It also includes someone completely asymptomatic.

Mild: Doesn't need O2 suppliment. ~85% of cases.
Moderate: Doesn't need respirator or more. ~10% of cases.
Severe: Needs a respirator. ~5% of cases.

Italy stats:

Italy: COVID cases by region 2024 | Statista

As of April 2024, Sicily's COVID cases are one of the highest among the Italian southern regions. Lombardy remains the region with the highest figure.

www.statista.com

^ cases by region

Italy: COVID deaths by region 2024 | Statista

As of April 2024, Sicily's COVID deaths are the highest among the Italian southern regions. Lombardy remains the region with the highest figure overall.

www.statista.com

^ deaths by region

DIVIDE.

Some regions are approaching 10%.

Look in Wuhan. It had a high rate there, and low in the rest of China. A big difference? Hospitals overwealmed.

Many (NOT most, many) people who get this survive with intensive medical intervention. Without that intervention, they die; we don't put people on Respirators for fun. Hospital capacity for this intervention isn't high - the US has something like 60k beds, most of them in use, and can probably cobble together a few more using gear used for surgery.

If you have 30k beds assigned to this, * 20 is 600k -- with more than 600k sick, you lose the ability to use those beds for new patients. And these beds don't teleport and neither do patients; so any one area with too many sick runs out.

They are letting people drown in their own lungs in Italy because they ran out of equipment to save them, and they have to pick which person lives and which dies, and there are 20 more people who need that equipment in the ambulances outside.

Your numbers are wrong

People with it and mild symptoms are far under reported

 

[Acolyte of Zothique]

Wasn't Wuhans first case Dec 1, 2019? So whenever they started seeing a downswing is probably a decent indicator, but IDK how quickly they realized what was going on and what they did to try and stop it. Id imagine population density probably affects it too. Only time will tell.

First reported case of COVID 19 appeared on November 17. This was many weeks before the Chinese authorities started reporting cases. This is from the South China Morning Post reporting on unpublished Chinese government data. The Chinese authorities kept things quiet for quite a while...

 

[Umbran]

First reported case of COVID 19 appeared on November 17. This was many weeks before the Chinese authorities started reporting cases. This is from the South China Morning Post reporting on unpublished Chinese government data. The Chinese authorities kept things quiet for quite a while...

Well, the very first case... was just one guy sick. It is only after a bunch of cases come up that they can see a trend, and figure out what's going on.

 

[Umbran]

Person abive this post is not a sheep

Mod Note:

Please be aware, there is going to be ZERO patience for shenanigans in this thread. Just don't.

 

[Umbran]

Biological damage will hit us now, but the economic damage could have last effects.

Last I checked, dying is a "lasting effect". It lasts a long, long time.