D&D and the rising pandemic

[Enevhar Aldarion]

A hundred years ago everybody was too busy fighting WWI or staying out of it.

And, unfortunately, one of the big spreaders of the flu were all the soldiers returning home from the war.

 

[Bitbrain]

I feel like H1N1 was more like part 1 of the story about the boy who cried wolf

I lost 20 pounds over four days from that disease some years back. It was not a joking matter for me.

 

[WayOfTheFourElements]

I'm going with the philosophy of business as usual. As far as I can see, the economic damage due to panic will be worse than the biological damage from virus itself. Those worried should take precautions, but everything else seems counterproductive in the long term. Biological damage will hit us now, but the economic damage could have last effects. Therefore, it is my duty not to avoid any of my usual activities, despite the potential personal risk.

 

[Zardnaar]

I'm going with the philosophy of business as usual. As far as I can see, the economic damage due to panic will be worse than the biological damage from virus itself. Those worried should take precautions, but everything else seems counterproductive in the long term. Biological damage will hit us now, but the economic damage could have last effects. Therefore, it is my duty not to avoid any of my usual activities, despite the potential personal risk.

Gina be a recession worldwide. Maybe depression. Gonna hit us hard tourism is 2nd biggest earner.

 

[NotAYakk]

A very interesting (and terrifying for someone who lives in the UK) article. Thanks for posting. I think this excerpt is the most important part:

​

• Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
• Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.​

Washington State has 4 independent deaths (counting the one nursing home as one event) and 270 detected; they are missing 90%+ of their cases.

UK appears to be on top of it actually. 1.6% death rate to infected is a sign they may be near saturation testing. The 6 deaths*80 multiplier is 480, and they have 324 positive tests; that is the right ballpark. 99% of tested are negative, which also looks like "saturation tests" and not just testing people who show up extremely sick and/or are travel-related to hot spots.

France has 33 deaths and 1800 detected cases. They are missing 90% of their infected.
Spain has 35 deaths and 1700 detected cases. They are missing 90% of their infected.

Germany has 2 deaths and 1100 detected cases. Looks good so far.

California has 2 deaths and 160 cases. Suspicious.

NY+NJ has 1 death and 180 cases. Also Suspicious.

So expect things to get bad in France, Spain and Washington State next. France and Spain if they shut down everything today will still have a bad time. Washington State could be either side of the edge.

I'm going with the philosophy of business as usual. As far as I can see, the economic damage due to panic will be worse than the biological damage from virus itself. Those worried should take precautions, but everything else seems counterproductive in the long term. Biological damage will hit us now, but the economic damage could have last effects. Therefore, it is my duty not to avoid any of my usual activities, despite the potential personal risk.

By failing to social distance you can be killing people.

"Mild" cases include lung scarring, 6+ months of rehab, etc.

If it turns out that economic damage is more than biological, it is because people did change their behaviour. This disease is on track for 4-6% death rate among infected and 50% of population infected by christmas without measures.

With measures, 1% death rate, and less than 1% of the population infected.

Read what is going on in Italien hospitals. Look at satallite pictures of Iran. Read the description of "mild" case (does not need O2 mask?!)

 

[WayOfTheFourElements]

Washington State has 4 independent deaths (counting the one nursing home as one event) and 270 detected; they are missing 90%+ of their cases.

UK appears to be on top of it actually. 1.6% death rate to infected is a sign they may be near saturation testing. The 6 deaths*80 multiplier is 480, and they have 324 positive tests; that is the right ballpark. 99% of tested are negative, which also looks like "saturation tests" and not just testing people who show up extremely sick and/or are travel-related to hot spots.

France has 33 deaths and 1800 detected cases. They are missing 90% of their infected.
Spain has 35 deaths and 1700 detected cases. They are missing 90% of their infected.

Germany has 2 deaths and 1100 detected cases. Looks good so far.

California has 2 deaths and 160 cases. Suspicious.

NY+NJ has 1 death and 180 cases. Also Suspicious.

So expect things to get bad in France, Spain and Washington State next. France and Spain if they shut down everything today will still have a bad time. Washington State could be either side of the edge.

By failing to social distance you can be killing people.

"Mild" cases include lung scarring, 6+ months of rehab, etc.

If it turns out that economic damage is more than biological, it is because people did change their behaviour. This disease is on track for 4-6% death rate among infected and 50% of population infected by christmas without measures.

With measures, 1% death rate, and less than 1% of the population infected.

Read what is going on in Italien hospitals. Look at satallite pictures of Iran. Read the description of "mild" case (does not need O2 mask?!)

I am aware of and agree with 100% of the facts stated above.

Nevertheless, I am more concerned with the potential economic damage inflicted by those policies, such as social distancing, quarantine, travel bans, lack of patronage to small and developing businesses. Will what the long term economic effects be? How many deaths we result from food, water, medicine shortages due to disrupted supply lines?

 

[NotAYakk]

We can keep food, water and medicine supply lines running with social distancing. Especially in any industrialized or industrializing nation.

You going to a restaurant, or whatever, isn't going to interfere with that.

The government can juice the economy with cash when we get through this.

And yes, lots of restaurants and tourist businesses and travel businesses are going to have problems, and we are in for a recession. The length of the recession is going to vary with how effectively we shut down COVID-19. If you don't social distance and obey rules, you'll contribute to making the shut down less effective.

To put it another way, the 1918 influenza pandemic hit during a world war. It caused lots of damage. There was social distancing, shutting down gatherings, etc. But food kept flowing and the war kept fighting; the parts of the economy that needed to run kept running.

 

[WayOfTheFourElements]

We can keep food, water and medicine supply lines running with social distancing. Especially in any industrialized or industrializing nation.

You going to a restaurant, or whatever, isn't going to interfere with that.

The government can juice the economy with cash when we get through this.

And yes, lots of restaurants and tourist businesses and travel businesses are going to have problems, and we are in for a recession. The length of the recession is going to vary with how effectively we shut down COVID-19. If you don't social distance and obey rules, you'll contribute to making the shut down less effective.

To put it another way, the 1918 influenza pandemic hit during a world war. It caused lots of damage. There was social distancing, shutting down gatherings, etc. But food kept flowing and the war kept fighting; the parts of the economy that needed to run kept running.

Which assumes one has money to buy food after losing one's job at the hotel, restaurant, etc. Perhaps in countries like the US things will be fine. For those of us who don't live in such wealthy countries, we have to make tough decisions. I know dozens of people already let go from their jobs because of the virus and are now wondering how to feed their children, especially now that our government has devaluated the currency to pay for the government response.

 

[jasper]

I am in a holding pattern currently. I am supporting a local con. Yesterday was told around 5 the con was in the pattern. After shopping for sanitizer, biscuit cutters, and crowd watching; I visited my contact. The city council is going put more information at 1000 Hrs local.
I was throwing a pulled pork sandwiches dinner for the dms after the con closed on Saturday. So my weekend dinner plans are in a holding pattern too.
Should we start a CON CANCELLED thread?

 

[Son of the Serpent]

The first thing that always pops into my head whenever there is a major crisis like corona is:

Now lets have a look at the stock market and see whats currently uncharacteristically floundering but wont stay that way.

Ive made a lot of money investing in fear. Its delicious.

So if you are stumped about things to do while you are locked up in your home, try spending your new found free time perusing stocks. Its what i do.

Ill be investing in more than a few things in the coming months and year but to give an example to start you guys off if you are wondering where to start looking, several oil companies have gotten a bee in their bonnet lately. Maybe you wanna check that out? Corona will affect that.