So, "flatten the curve" is a good way to get people to start with the right thing.
The thing is, it won't work, if your goal is to get herd immunity (30-70% infected and recovered). If you kept the infection rate below what the US health care system can handle, we are talking about an epidemic spread out over 10 years.
But the steps involving "flatten the curve" are still needed. We need to (a) buy time, (b) get the number of cases under control. Get R0 under 1.0 and the number of new cases starts shrinking instead of growing, and social distancing can do that.
China and SK seem to have succeeded. This weekend we find out if Italy did - there is a delay between measures and results of tests when you are only testing people sick enough to go to the hospital. (SK started testing everyone, and China did it after they got numbers under control, but Italy is not doing it now).
On Thursday Italy had 2400 new cases. On Friday 2600 new cases. This is an increase, but not a steep one. If Saturday and Sunday it stays in the 2500 range or lower, it means that Italy has probably brought R0 under 1.0, and continuing the same measures will result in the number of cases in Italy starting to drop.
If not, it means that Italian measures are probably not strict enough to control this.
(R0 is the number of people an infected person infects)
Exponential growth is SCARY. Exponential growth and the 2-3 week delay in mortality after infection is why Italy went from "this is bad" to that utter disaster that is going on now in an eyeblink, and is why France, Spain, USA and UK are in deep naughty word but don't know it yet.
Get R0 under 1.0 and exponential growth starts working for us -- the epidemic shrinks exponentially.
Get R0 under 1.0 and wait 4 weeks and the pressure on the health care system starts to relax.
Speaking of which, China has arrived in Europe with 30 tonnes of supplies -- 1000 respirators and millions of masks -- and some experienced doctors, and is deploying in Spain and Italy. <3 <3 <3 <3 <3
With R0 under 1.0, and time, Italy can get its numbers down. And then it can restart case tracking (while keeping R0 down) and mass testing (everyone with a sniffle to start).
That is where China and SK are right now.
Once you get your internal epidemic under control, you raise the border. Quarantine for all people from outside of a green zone, with Covid 19 negative test to let you in. Possibly exceptions for people with special licenses who both restrict contact and get regular tests (truckers moving goods and similar).
And you start spreading the green zone. We start exporting containment help to the red zone, like China is exporting it to Europe. There are maybe two Green Zones on the entire planet right now. Taiwan and Israel.
I won't do the math on how many people die if we go this way. It is really depressing. But the other ways are worse.
This is not "just" a flu. This is spanish-flu pandemic territory. We can give up, and accept a ~5% mortality rate. But we have learned things since 1918, and we can fight this mofo, and we can win.
Sentiment understood and agreed with, but rules is rules- no profanity.
