D&D and the rising pandemic

[Celebrim]

It's not even a floor because we don't know how many people with the virus aren't in this ratio. If 5 times the people have it than are confirmed as having it (presumably most of those cases would be milder) then you have a much lower mortality rate.

Right. But again, SK's extensive testing proves that can't be what is happening, however hopeful and reassuring it might be to believe that is what is happening. Likewise, the size of outbreaks can be predicted to within constraints that, while those constraints may seem large (often give or take an order of magnitude), nonetheless do constrain the base number greatly because very small changes in the base number yield massive changes in the outcome of exponential functions over time.

Underlying math here:


EDIT: One other thing I should have said is that the reverse of your argument is possible as well. People who make the argument you are making here tend to assume rather unreasonably that we have accurately documented the deaths, but not accurately documented the cases. And while that might seem reasonable, it's not really true except in cases when you are testing extensively. In the US for example, we almost certainly haven't documented all of our deaths. Small numbers of unconnected deaths which aren't tested will just hide in the 'flu season' numbers. There are in fact an anomalously large number of deaths in the US over the last few months which tested negative for influenza. It's highly likely that these will eventually be connected to coronavirus, and indeed I know of at least one case where that actually happened and a death was 'back dated' after it was traced to a cluster and tested.

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

The final line of that video pithily sums up how social attitude impacts an epidemic:

"So if people are sufficiently worried, then there's a lot less to worry about. But if no one is worried, that's when you should worry."

 

[Zardnaar]

So is toilet paper really sold out in USA and Europe? Or is it localized?

 

[Umbran]

Then I am correct.

Insofar as (at the time this was written) the folks we had been referring to had shown their reasoning, and you hadn't? Not really.

And, yes, though you deny it, the experts have been showing their work, and putting forth their reasoning. The papers are out there - I linked to one earlier i this thread, I believe. I sat in on a web conference with a professor from Northeastern discussing the matters just on Friday.

I am sorry they don't have time to sit down with you, personally. These are very busy times for them, and they only have so much time to communicate with laymen. If you're not going to go look for the information, yes it may look to you like there may be gaps, but if you aren't yourself an expert, then that very probably an issue of your understanding, not their work.

 

[Fenris-77]

Not being an expert epidemiologist isn't something I worry about a lot personally. I'm quite happy to have them tell me what they know. I'll fact check, but I know I'm not an expert. When that same dude wants to know to optimize a 40K tournament army, or teach English to a class of ESL 5th graders, then he can come talk to me.

 

[Uller]

So is toilet paper really sold out in USA and Europe? Or is it localized?

I live in Central Pennsylvania. It is sold out here.

 

[Fenris-77]

I live in Central Pennsylvania. It is sold out here.

Just try to remember which is your poo hand, you'll be fine.

 

[Zardnaar]

I live in Central Pennsylvania. It is sold out here.

I have friends in Houston and sold out.

 

[FrogReaver]

So is toilet paper really sold out in USA and Europe? Or is it localized?

My area was low as of Friday. Though we had our first confirmed case mid week.

 

[FrogReaver]

Insofar as (at the time this was written) the folks we had been referring to had shown their reasoning, and you hadn't? Not really.

And, yes, though you deny it, the experts have been showing their work, and putting forth their reasoning. The papers are out there - I linked to one earlier i this thread, I believe. I sat in on a web conference with a professor from Northeastern discussing the matters just on Friday.

I am sorry they don't have time to sit down with you, personally. These are very busy times for them, and they only have so much time to communicate with laymen. If you're not going to go look for the information, yes it may look to you like there may be gaps, but if you aren't yourself an expert, then that very probably an issue of your understanding, not their work.

They never addressed my objection - and as it stands when you stop trying to put people into anti-science camps you actually get dialog as @Celebrim gave above that does align with my point and brings up an additional one for consideration.