D&D and the rising pandemic

[Umbran]

A major difference is that our technology is so far advanced now that we have far more resources than they did at that time.

Well, even with those resources, we still have food security issues without a major economic dislocation, so I don't see as we can just say, "resources!" and expect the problem can't exist.

People are worried, for example, about how they're going to be able to afford their homes. Well, the homes are there.

Yes, folks are worried about being able to pay their rents and mortgages. In a recession or depression, that's an issue. What gets done about it is a political question, and beyond the scope of these boards.

 

[NotAYakk]

I think NYC is going to be bad.

They just started social distancing a few days ago, and their Covid-19 death curve is doubling in less than 3 days. That is a lot of points, and it isn't as if you go "well, we just started noticing that Covid-19 was causing these deaths", so testing of deaths shouldn't get more reliable in that short of a window.

Deaths are a 20-ish day trailing indicator. If we give them 6 doublings from now before their social distancing kicks in, they hit 64 * 150 which is about 10,000 deaths ... assuming their hospitals can handle the surge in cases, which isn't likely.

Then social distancing slows the spread, but the death rate stays flatish, so 1000s per day.

Then 2x to 3x that due to lack of ICUs.

Graph source: Coronavirus Deaths by U.S. State and Country Over Time: Daily Tracking

 

[Zardnaar]

Hmm... To be completely honest, I kinda wish I was trapped in New Zealand instead of rural west Texas.

My next door neighbour is English and there's a few Aussie and US expats here.

They could have gone home but they're sticking it out here.

 

[Oofta]

My next door neighbour is English and there's a few Aussie and US expats here.

They could have gone home but they're sticking it out here.

At this point, I don't blame them.

 

[Zardnaar]

I think NYC is going to be bad.

View attachment 120174
They just started social distancing a few days ago, and their Covid-19 death curve is doubling in less than 3 days. That is a lot of points, and it isn't as if you go "well, we just started noticing that Covid-19 was causing these deaths", so testing of deaths shouldn't get more reliable in that short of a window.

Deaths are a 20-ish day trailing indicator. If we give them 6 doublings from now before their social distancing kicks in, they hit 64 * 150 which is about 10,000 deaths ... assuming their hospitals can handle the surge in cases, which isn't likely.

Then social distancing slows the spread, but the death rate stays flatish, so 1000s per day.

Then 2x to 3x that due to lack of ICUs.

Graph source: Coronavirus Deaths by U.S. State and Country Over Time: Daily Tracking

I read they're gonna run out if medical supplies in ten days. That was two days ago.

They need 60 000 ventilator FEMA gave them 400.

There's no more to be bought, there's a 6 week backlog and/or stuff is stuck in China.
And everyone wants that stuff now.


One could run some calculations but they don't have the data. No one has really had to do this since 1945 and Truman being president.

The calculation is how to kill the least amount of people.

 

[Zardnaar]

At this point, I don't blame them.

Nope it's not gonna be great here but it's looking very rosy by comparison.

 

[Todd Roybark]

Well, a bit of reading tells me that the Great Depression can be blamed for about 7 million deaths by starvation and malnutrition.

Umbran, would you, kindly, share your sources to support this figure?

No accredited paper, (I have seen), supports that figure. I’m not an expert, however.

I imagine, if there was credible evidence, Howard Zinn, would have had some mention of it, in one of the versions of a People’s History of the United States, for example.

I will, happily, update my view of history, if there is a factual basis for this statement.

Most people in the world, are not directly invested in Stock Markets, and only 55% of Americans are, based off a Gallup 2019 poll. Greater numbers of death and increased misery, for stock prices is not a trade, I am willing to make.

My 72 year old mother, has more inherent value in human terms, then the share price of Disney stocks.

If the Forgotten Realms’ god, Waukeen demanded that people work during a plague, guaranteeing, increased death and spread of the disease, while also mandating no change to the predominant economic mode; is that the actions of a ‘Good’ alignment?

 

[ad_hoc]

One important piece of data that I think people are missing from looking at the USA's death count is the comparison to the number of recovered cases.

Deaths are low because the USA is behind many other countries.

There are currently 634 deaths but only 361 recoveries.

Compare that to Italy, the hardest hit country with 6 820 deaths and 8 326 recoveries.

Or perhaps Canada, a country demographically and geographically that has a lot in common with the USA with 25 deaths and 112 recoveries.

Germany is a big outlier here and an example of a country with great healthcare (perhaps the best in the world) with 33 000 cases, 156 deaths, and an amazing 3 133 recoveries.

The bad is just starting.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,423,321 Cases and 2,703,987 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[Zardnaar]

Umbran, would you, kindly, share your sources to support this figure?

No accredited paper, (I have seen), supports that figure. I’m not an expert, however.

I imagine, if there was credible evidence, Howard Zinn, would have had some mention of it, in one of the versions of a People’s History of the United States, for example.

I will, happily, update my view of history, if there is a factual basis for this statement.

Most people in the world, are not directly invested in Stock Markets, and only 55% of Americans are, based off a Gallup 2019 poll. Greater numbers of death and increased misery for stock prices is not a trade, I am willing to make.

My 72 year mother, has more inherent value in human terms, than the share price of Disney stocks.

If the Forgotten Realms’ god, Waukeen demanded that people work during a plague, guaranteeing, increased death and spread of the disease, while also mandating no change to the predominant economic mode; is that the actions of a ‘Good’ alignment?

Deaths from pandemic 1million
Deaths from economic disruption 2 million

Pick one.

Reality is gonna puncture a few ideologies. Your options are bad, worse and awful pick one. It's not going to be obvious what option is bad, worse and awful either.

The war years was the last time decisions like this were made.

For example war years. Defeating Nazis and Japan ASAP good yes? Vital supplies disrupted normal cargo and people in places like Persia and Bengal went hungary.

IDK what your media is telling you overseas our PM invoked the war years, point blank said it's gonna be rough and had a picture of our PM from the great depression and start of WW2 over her shoulder.

We're basically on wartime footing here, supermarkets started rationing stuff here last week.

 

[Todd Roybark]

Deaths from economic disruption 2 million

Going back to work is not going to stop economic disruption. Restaurant wholesellers in California, are converting to markets, as the demand by restaurants is decreasing due to closures, but people need to eat, and the produce is going to spoil.

Direct Payments to residents, debt forgiveness, etc, etc are all viable options in an economy like the United States. Free vegetables is viable in California, the Los Angeles Unified School district is currently running the largest foodbank in the United States.

What is lacking is political will and imagination. If we are not willing to try new models, then failure is guaranteed. Someone on Easter Island, had to chop down the last large tree. Somehow, people ignored that the trees were diminishing.

Doing the same old, same old is insane.