Pathfinder 2E Release Day Second Edition Amazon Sales Rank

[darjr]

Yes, I do!

Go to this website, and in the "ASIN" blank enter the number: 1640781684. That'll give you the daily Amazon rank of the PF2 core rulebook for the last two years. (It'll also give you the lowest FBA price each day, and the lowest price with shipping each day.)

Here's the full graph:
View attachment 132561
For reference: the graph starts in April 2019, the low point on the left is July 2019 (release date), and the upward bump in in the middle starts in March 2020 (onset of the pandemic).

I found an old camel camel camel graph of pathfinder 1 sales rank going back to 2010

from this thread D&D 5E - Amazon: D&D at the start of 2018

 

[gss000]

I will say Roll20 and Amazon really might not be reliable metrics for this, over on the sub no one mentions roll20 when we're asked for VTT recommendations, and similarly a lot of people are probably buying direct from Paizo depending on Amazon price shenanigans, the demand for pdfs, and such. I get that they seem like the reliable metrics on the face of it, but Roll20 took hits from that whole controversy, Paizo's market is probably doing a little more research on which VTT they're using too since the product is aimed a little more at power users while still being accessible.

There's a lot of speculation here based on your over reliance of the subreddit as your source of information. As someone who has to look at survey data for a living, relying on message boards is very problematic. It's a piece of information, like any social media site, but it can't be used reliably by itself. A poster is generally more enthusiastic about a topic than a lot of members of the the public in that they voluntarily register and share their opinions. It's useful to see this positive indicator, but can't be used as the sole indicator of a system's health. I'd make an argument if that was the only data point we have. However, that's why you can't disregard Roll20 or Amazon sales rank, which with estimators out there can give you a part of the sales numbers.

I agree with you that using Roll20 user statistics by itself as a strong indicator of Pathfinder interest or lack thereof is problematic, especially if people are leaving for other VTT. But, we have to look at why people are leaving. Is it because people are leaving en masse? Nope, else you wouldn't see subscriber numbers up this quarter. Probably it's because of the lack of Roll20's support. I think Pathfinder is in a death spiral on that Roll20 where lack of support leads to lower number of games as as people leave, which leads to less support, etc. I don't think the death spiral is a knock on the game itself, but I'm not encouraged when I wonder why Roll20 didn't put the resources in from the beginning. Maybe someone better in the know can explain.

If anything I would use the growth of the subreddit to better capture the growth of interest in the system. Their growth has only really accelerated, which to me is pretty convincing evidence that the game as a whole is growing pretty aggressively-- more users are looking for resources and discussion on the game, regardless of what they're playing on, or where they're buying their books. Even though thats only a fraction of the market, I think it probably speaks to the greater volume of players that they represent a fraction of.

To me, this looks like a cherry picked stat to fit your conclusion of growth. It's a good sign for the strength of the game, but it's only one good sign. I've not yet seen signs of greater volumes of players elsewhere on other roleplaying message boards. What I'd expect if there were overall good signs of growth is message boards beyond Redditt and the Paizo's board where there is robust Pathfinder 2e discussions. I'd also expect more YouTube streams and podcasts of campaigns or discussions. I'm not seeing that either when I look for it, which could just be because of the fact they aren't getting a lot of hits.

I do expect when a game like 5e is over 6 years old you are going to see people leave it to play other games. This churn is part of a games lifecycles. If a game is healthy it gains new players faster than it loses them. That people are leaving 5E and going to Pathfinder 2e is again a good thing, but is it enough? There was that recent high profile Taking 20 "I'm leaving Pathfinder" vid from someone who initially rated Pathfinder 2E better than 5E. Is that an indication of people leaving the game faster than people coming in? Way too early to tell there, but the positive subreddit stat should be taken with a big grain of salt.

I'd actually argue the drop in Amazon sales might have more to do with that massive humble bundle deal they did a little while back, it literally cleaned out their entire stock of Core Rulebooks, it might have front loaded a lot of the interest and channeled it away from Amazon.

That explains a dip for a period back in July 2020 and a bit afterward, but why would it still be a factor seven months later? I don't think so. The current sales rank levels in the 11,000s - and one day this week as low as the 15,000s, which I think was a short blip and not a long-term bottom - is coming at a time when there is plenty of supply on Amazon and has been for a while. I agree the humble bundle probably front loaded for a time, but not now and that argument is no longer valid. I'm even less encouraged for Pathfinder 2e's future when I see that old camel camel camel that shows 2e's current trend is already looking like 1e's trend in late 2017, and that game had a constant several years of high Amazon sales.

I have no doubt that Paizo overall health, even as I remember how many of the signs people point to as reasons for Paizo's health could have been said of TSR before the WOTC acquisition. I actually hope the game does well for the next few years. My philosophy is that whatever keeps people gaming is good, and the industry needs multiple strong games. However, sixteen months after it's release, I'm not seeing enough indications of a game with long legs. With new data, I'd be happy to change that position.

 

[Teemu]

I think the reason why Roll20 didn’t give PF2 a strong initial push was 5e. They have a limited amount of resources to convert books into Roll20 modules and compendium additions, and Paizo produces a lot of content. But 5e has a much bigger audience, so 5e Roll20 modules and books are much more profitable. Further, a sizeable portion of Paizo’s fanbase gets their products through the subscription service, which means that particular segment of consumers would have to pay more for the same product on Roll20. Roll20 actually stopped converting a PF1 AP about midway through due to lack of sales! This was around PF2 release, maybe shortly before.

I think Roll20 isn’t doing Abomination Vaults right now because their PF2 team is focused on the new Otari adventure, and probably Bestiary 3. Paizo just pumps out too much material for it all to be worth converting ASAP on Roll20. 5e books do so much better saleswise, plus Roll20 has also been producing versions of many smaller games.

Foundry is different since it’s basically fans creating mods that convert PDFs and so on. Their business model is not the same as Roll20’s. Foundry doesn’t have a licensed marketplace, it relies on legally available SRDs like what PF2 has (the whole rule set for free), or illegal/legally questionable tools for games like 5e.

 

[willrali]

I think the reason why Roll20 didn’t give PF2 a strong initial push was 5e. They have a limited amount of resources to convert books into Roll20 modules and compendium additions, and Paizo produces a lot of content. But 5e has a much bigger audience, so 5e Roll20 modules and books are much more profitable. Further, a sizeable portion of Paizo’s fanbase gets their products through the subscription service, which means that particular segment of consumers would have to pay more for the same product on Roll20. Roll20 actually stopped converting a PF1 AP about midway through due to lack of sales! This was around PF2 release, maybe shortly before.

I think Roll20 isn’t doing Abomination Vaults right now because their PF2 team is focused on the new Otari adventure, and probably Bestiary 3. Paizo just pumps out too much material for it all to be worth converting ASAP on Roll20. 5e books do so much better saleswise, plus Roll20 has also been producing versions of many smaller games.

Foundry is different since it’s basically fans creating mods that convert PDFs and so on. Their business model is not the same as Roll20’s. Foundry doesn’t have a licensed marketplace, it relies on legally available SRDs like what PF2 has (the whole rule set for free), or illegal/legally questionable tools for games like 5e.

I’d agree with this. Roll20 has ‘5e and everything else.’ Pf2 is in the ‘everything else’ and has to share resources with dozens of small games.

I wouldn’t say that Pf2 is shrinking based on the Amazon numbers and Roll20, but there’s no way I’d say it’s growing right now. It has an engaged fan base (me included). That’s a start.

If they want more players then Paizo needs a hook to reach the category of 5e players open to something new. Maybe a nice dnd-beyond website to help people create and manage their characters, and automate the numbers?

 

[The-Magic-Sword]

While I don't think message boards are of statistical signfigance, I don't think thats data we have in the first place. I'd argue its likely the best data we have.

The Amazon sales rank depends specifically on sales through Amazon when Amazon most definetly doesnt carry the pdfs, which probably have massive volume, and doesnt reflect subscriber number, or the inventory-clearing sales surge from the humble bundle either.

Meanwhile roll 20 while strong for other game systems is recommended against heavily in the Pathfinder community, which from an information sciences perspective means Google searches looking (functionally) for consumer review material are turning up the Foundry recommendation.

I agree with you about churn as a possibility, but thats also fraught since pf2e very much has a specific market niche relative to 5e that would correlate to poaching certain demographics.

Similarly, online discussion has changed dramatically over the last few years as Discord has come to be a center for that kind of engagement, rather than traditional forums.

 

[Parmandur]

The Amazon sales rank depends specifically on sales through Amazon when Amazon most definetly doesnt carry the pdfs, which probably have massive volume

Citation needed.

The fact that Paizo did a Humble Bundle to clear the first printing at all is what I'd consider a troubling sign.

 

[fearsomepirate]

While I don't think message boards are of statistical signfigance, I don't think thats data we have in the first place. I'd argue its likely the best data we have.

Message boards are often anti-data. I've seen at least a couple companies immolate themselves by mistaking the 0.01% of users who post on message boards as representative of their player base.

 

[The-Magic-Sword]

Citation needed.

The fact that Paizo did a Humble Bundle to clear the first printing at all is what I'd consider a troubling sign.

Citation not needed, statements from Paizo pertaining to pdf volume are publically available through the forums.

Demand for PDFs so severely outstrips demand for print that Paizo was afraid they wouldnt be able to sell the print product at the prices they would like to, if a seperate pdf subscription option existed, as the prices at time of writing were based on a discount they got from their printers for doing such large orders.

Notably, this was years ago, the overall demand for digital books has only increased. Both within and without the RPG category, so its unquestionable that a large portion of their sales are pdf, absent material sales figures to the contrary. Nevermind sales through their own web store front and actual subscriptions.

 

[The-Magic-Sword]

Message boards are often anti-data. I've seen at least a couple companies immolate themselves by mistaking the 0.01% of users who post on message boards as representative of their player base.

Using your message boards (which are made up of power-users whose tastes won't match more cadual players, and who might develop hive minded tendencies) to determine the wants, needs, and opinions of the playerbase, and using the overall growth of communities that center your game as an indicator of growing interest in your game as a whole are two very different propositions.

Its also one of a few things giving us information that things are going well, as Paizo is still hiring, and the release schedule shows no signs of slowing down beyond them having gotten the core of the game out in a crunch and transitioning to the pace theyve been talking about since day one.

 

[darjr]

Citation not needed, statements from Paizo pertaining to pdf volume are publically available through the forums.

Demand for PDFs so severely outstrips demand for print that Paizo was afraid they wouldnt be able to sell the print product at the prices they would like to, if a seperate pdf subscription option existed, as the prices at time of writing were based on a discount they got from their printers for doing such large orders.

Notably, this was years ago, the overall demand for digital books has only increased. Both within and without the RPG category, so its unquestionable that a large portion of their sales are pdf, absent material sales figures to the contrary. Nevermind sales through their own web store front and actual subscriptions.

Not that easy. Cite please.