AbdulAlhazred
Legend
But you are comparing Apples to Oranges, because in no case is the 5e wizard going to still face the same DC 15 at level 10 or 20 that he faced at level 1, just not going to happen. That is because there are other vastly more proficient PCs around for that check who will just take it and make it trivial. This won't happen in 4e (well, it MAY, but then said PCs had to actually invest build resources).I'm not clear as to your point here -- neither system is attempting to model this, except by the fact that proficiency is on or off. In 4e, the top guy gets better at his ability at the same rate as the bottom guy -- +1 per 2 levels.
Sure. But, that 4e character faces a constant treadmill of increasing DCs, so their actual chance of success is the same as the 5e character, who doesn't just add numbers to their sheet to keep up with the rising DCs. A 4e character, your wizard, at 1st level, with a 0 stat and no proficiency in athletics, faces a DC 8 for an easy athletics challenge. That's a 65% chance of success! The same 5e wizard faces a DC 10, for a 55% chance of success. Now zoom to 20th. No build resources are put into either. The 4e wizard has picked up +10 for half level, the 5e character has not improved. They both now face an easy task. The 4e character's DC is 18, meaning they have a 65% chance of success. The 5e character's DC is 10, which has a 55% chance of success. Wait, neither actually improved!
But, let's look at a medium DC. At 1st, the 4e character faces a DC 12, for a 45% chance of success, and the 5e character faces a 15, for a 30% chance of success. At 20th, the 4e character faces a DC 25, and has a 30% chance of success. The 5e character faces a DC 15, for the same 30% chance of success. Huh. 4e lost a step.
Now, hard. DC 19 vs 20 at 1st, so a 5% difference with advantage to 4e. At 20th, the 5e character still only has a 5% chance of success, but the 4e character cannot succeed at all with a +10 vs a DC of 34.
This is the straight skill system. It's not like 4e characters actually improve at the things that they are actually doing. Sure, they improve against things they're not doing anymore, but, they're not doing those things. In play, the difference is not present, it's only in some white room conception where level 20 characters are doing level 1 stuff.
It is also not a good comparison in another way. There are TONS of ways in which 4e PCs can and often do get bonuses to skill checks due to things they acquire (IE feats, PP, ED, items, ASI, etc.). ANY character can easily improve whichever skills they want, to any reasonable degree, and probably will make some limited improvements in many of them.
So, level 30 4e PCs will run into some situations where they have 'fallen off the track' on a few things, it happens. OTOH many things they will be roughly as likely to succeed at the 30th level equivalents of as they were long ago at level 1, and some they will be vastly better at. This is of course ignoring the whole thematic dimension of this, they are now climbing the Ice Walls of Hell, not some amateur rock climb 3 miles from home.
And that last point is one that I think goes badly for 5e, because it actively discourages that sort of challenge scaling. It works against "the world is a wondrous place" by actually punishing you for going to the wondrous and dangerous parts. 4e punishes you a BIT, but much less, and makes your comrades better than they were before to make up for it.