D&D (2024) Is the 5E player base going to split?

[Reynard]

Nobody has to buy any D&D product. I don't begrudge them making a reasonable profit. If I get 6 people together, the hours of entertainment we'll get out of the investment is well worth the cost. Everyone will, of course, have to make the judgement call for themselves.

If you want to talk about overpriced niche products, the "mini" from WizKids for Demogorgon makes sense. A new boxed set for $60 just isn't in that category for me.

I know everyone has different means and so values their entrtainment dollars differently, but I tend to go with the movie model: if I go see a movie, I get about an hour's entertainment for US$5. If a movie is bad, I am disappointed and if it is good, I am happy. So generally that is how I value entertainment overall. If I buy a video game for $60, I expect to get 12 enjoyable hours out of it. If I buy a console for $600, I expect to get an additional 120 hours out of it (good thing I bought Skyrim, then). Similarly, I expect that a $60 D&D book should bring me 12 hours of enjoyment, between reading it and using it in play. If I buy that book twice because I want to use it on Fantasy grounds (which happens a lot) I expect that much more enjoyment.

By an large, D&D is the best return on investment I have ever seen in entertainment dollars.

 

[Micah Sweet]

I don't see a split happening. There could be some tables that require building characters using the 2014 PHB, but for the most part, new players will just buy the 2024 PHB, make a character, and then play in a game, whether a homebrew or an existing AP or SG, none the wiser that there is a difference. Just like most won't really be aware if a DM is using a MToF or VGtM monster or a MotM one now. And it won't matter since the core ruleset remains the same.

The one caveat here would be if PHB2024 completely get's rid of Short Rest classes and/or bonus actions (which I don't think they will, even if those rules are de-emphasized in to character builds), but even then, using the specific beats general rule paradigm, older characters should still be compatible with new adventures and settings.

Compatibility isn't the issue (I've admitted defeat on that). You could be fine with the new WotC and still not want to pay to replace your core books, or ask your players to buy new PHs.

 

[edosan]

I don't think it's going to be that big of a deal except for the people that have already decided they hate everything 5e.

(The fact of the matter we don't know anything about what the new book are going to have - Perkins said they're wanting them to by backward compatible and he's know what's going on better than any of us here)

 

[LordEntrails]

Again, people aren't going to happily pay more for a product just because it makes sense for the price to go up. I'm talking about actual consumers, not "the market". Games aren't gasoline; you don't have to buy them to keep living your normal life.

People will pay more. You and I might not. But people will.

As proof I will present to you the original price of just $15 USD for the 1st edition AD&D PHB.

 

[Micah Sweet]

I don't think it's going to be that big of a deal except for the people that have already decided they hate everything 5e.

(The fact of the matter we don't know anything about what the new book are going to have - Perkins said they're wanting them to by backward compatible and he's know what's going on better than any of us here)

Nah, just a lot if their post-2016 content, and even then its more the philosophy behind it.

 

[JThursby]

Do you think that "5.5" is going to split the 5E player base such that there are 2 camps of 5E players -- 5.0 and 5.5? I know that some people felt that way about 4E essentials, and some folks stuck with 3.0 rather than go to 3.5.

I expect a majority of players to move to 5.5, and small but not insignificant minorities that stick with the old rules and those that change games altogether. If nothing else it will be the time for other publishers to have their work discovered, and many of them deserve more recognition.

I think where ex-5e players are going to go is going to be shaped by how they prefer to engage with the medium. For me personally, I've only been running 5e as an obligation for a while now. My game of choice to just have fun has been Pathfinder 2nd Edition. I can see that game's player base growing a lot during the transition period from 5 to 5.5 with players that like strong character customization and good adventure writing. The OSR scene is also something to keep an eye on - there is a significant chunk of new players that find the elements of old school jank that 5e has kept to be charming and want more of it. There's also those that just want collaborative storytelling, so games like Dungeon World should also expected to see a bump in popularity. Games that don't really cater to anything a typical D&D 5e player wants, like Call of Cthulhu or Shadowrun, I don't really see harvesting that many new players.

 

[payn]

I can't help but appreciate the irony of the intentionally heavily marketed and voluminously produced "collector's editions", beings, as I am, a veteran of the 90s Foil Cover era of comics.

I know right? I just got suckered into the off-world tier of Bladerunner KS for a collectors copy. I never used to buy them because I didnt want to use them and couldn't afford two. Though, now with PDFs, I can get the collector to decorate my shelf.

 

[Jer]

I think there might be a limit to how much a parent will likely spend for their kid to play one video game...and around $60 is it.

Except that $60 back in 1986 was over double what it is today.

It's very weird that it's the absolute dollar amount that is some kind of limit and not the purchasing power of that dollar amount. $60 today is 4 people going to the movies. $60 back in 1986 would have paid for around 15 people to go to the movies. Have parents gotten cheaper about paying for their kids entertainment?

 

[Micah Sweet]

Except that $60 back in 1986 was over double what it is today.

It's very weird that it's the absolute dollar amount that is some kind of limit and not the purchasing power of that dollar amount. $60 today is 4 people going to the movies. $60 back in 1986 would have paid for around 15 people to go to the movies. Have parents gotten cheaper about paying for their kids entertainment?

Maybe. Maybe they just remember how much they were able to get out of their parents for video games. Or maybe everything else costs more and they have less available for luxuries.

 

[Guest 7034872]

So what I am curious about is how folks feel. Do you think that "5.5" is going to split the 5E player base such that there are 2 camps of 5E players -- 5.0 and 5.5? I know that some people felt that way about 4E essentials, and some folks stuck with 3.0 rather than go to 3.5.

Bereft as I am of a working crystal ball I cannot lay much on my own predictions here, right? Okay.

My guess is that it won't be so much a split as a lag in people adopting the new books. As folks set in their ways often do, we'll grouse and insist the 5e books are largely fine as they are and didn't need all these changes, but as more and more people take up the new system, most of us crusty old curmudgeons will come around to the new books and settle in to using them. There will, of course, be a few who insist on sticking with the prior system (that always happens, too), but I expect by and large it won't be a big deal.

It isn't fifth edition that so many people have fallen in love with over the past four or five years; it's D&D.