D&D (2024) Is the 5E player base going to split?

[Parmandur]

Yes. Why, I can't fathom but lots of people seem to like it. My point was that given how big that KS was I wonder if PbtA IS the Vampire of 2020s.

I'd say it is the Vampire of the Teens, but still going pretty strong. Fandom also seems to be trying to make Cortex Plus a thing, based on how many ads for the Dragon Prince game I've been seeing.

I haven't seen any actual mechanical changes that look to be solving the combat focus problem that a lot of younger story first players have discovered the system.

Mechanical differences aren't necessarily what is called for. The social influences I saw hoping mad in 2020 talking about leaving D&D for Quest RPG are back playing 5E, and happy with the changes WotC made in Tasha's and Mosnters of the Multiverse, and the change of design emphasis seen in Witchlight and Strixhaven.

 

[Parmandur]

I'm not calling for a new edition, per se, but I'm happy to buy it if and when it arrives.

Just as there are going to be players who are pushed away by change, there are also going to be customers who are pushed away by stagnation. It's like going to a fashion show in 2022 and complaining that the clothes from 2021 protected you from the elements just as well. Fashion is about selling novelty, not utility. For a luxury item like a new TTRPG edition, "change for change's sake" can be exactly the point.

But the question is, how much of thst is there, really? Particularly with the primary audience being high schoolers and College students, a solid rules base that is in place for whenever anyone turns 12 .ay be a winning strategy. Long term retention is a nice to have bonus, not central to the business model. The large amount of merchandise aimed at little kids is probably more valuable for making money through generating new customers than any sort of rules revamp would provide monetary value through retaining long term players who also happen to like radical change (which is going to be a slice of a slice of the market, by definition).

 

[Reynard]

they only feel progression if you take each step in the path... skipping 2e 2e player options (more of a leap but) 3e and 3.5 then 5e seems VERY off.

that is every RPG ever... so Rifts, Deadlands, and Vampire would all be recognized as D&D...

Six core stats? Check.
Core races? Check.
Core classes? Check.
Turn undead, fireball and magic missile? Check
Color codes dragons? Check.
XP, AC, Alignment? Checks.
Etc

There is a lot on top of those things, and some are a little different, but it is obviously E&D and not something adjacent.

 

[Parmandur]

I don't believe that. It's different but hardly unrecognizable.

I thinknthe average 12 year old in 1981 would recognize it.

 

[billd91]

Six core stats? Check.
Core races? Check.
Core classes? Check.
Turn undead, fireball and magic missile? Check
Color codes dragons? Check.
XP, AC, Alignment? Checks.
Etc

There is a lot on top of those things, and some are a little different, but it is obviously E&D and not something adjacent.

I was putting together a very similar post when I got ninja'ed here. But there are plenty of points of continuity that will indicate it's a flavor of D&D and not Rifts, Vampire, or Deadlands. That's pretty much a hyperbolic non-starter. Someone might confuse Pathfinder or another OGL-based clone but then the story is pretty easy to explain.

 

[Micah Sweet]

I'm not calling for a new edition, per se, but I'm happy to buy it if and when it arrives.

Just as there are going to be players who are pushed away by change, there are also going to be customers who are pushed away by stagnation. It's like going to a fashion show in 2022 and complaining that the clothes from 2021 protected you from the elements just as well. Fashion is about selling novelty, not utility. For a luxury item like a new TTRPG edition, "change for change's sake" can be exactly the point.

I don't treat TTRPGs as "fashion".

 

[TwoSix]

But the question is, how much of thst is there, really? Particularly with the primary audience being high schoolers and College students, a solid rules base that is in place for whenever anyone turns 12 .ay be a winning strategy. Long term retention is a nice to have bonus, not central to the business model. The large amount of merchandise aimed at little kids is probably more valuable for making money through generating new customers than any sort of rules revamp would provide monetary value through retaining long term players who also happen to like radical change (which is going to be a slice of a slice of the market, by definition).

Got me. Fortunately, it's not my problem.

I'm sure there's some level of change that can satisfy both the change-averse and the novelty-seeking, but that's a challenging needle to thread.

 

[Parmandur]

Got me. Fortunately, it's not my problem.

I'm sure there's some level of change that can satisfy both the change-averse and the novelty-seeking, but that's a challenging needle to thread.

Sure, but it is WotC problem: there doesn't seem to be much of a problem for them, though, as the permanent Evergreen base seems to be working.

 

[TwoSix]

I don't treat TTRPGs as "fashion".

Hell, I don't treat my clothes as fashion, but the market for non-utility clothes is obviously extensive. Just like with other luxury items, plenty of people buy new gaming material for the sake of having new stuff.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

Six core stats? Check.

that are not really what they look like, but they DO have the same lables... but they all just have a + with out any of the other modifiers. and they give bonus and negatives both more often... they would be recognizable but weird.

Core races? Check.

plus a ton of non core ones, and I have seen 3e fans complain that the dragon born and teifling ruine the PHB, so I am doubting that 1e had MORE forgiving progressive players... this would be a small but not 0 sticking point

Core classes? Check.

yea but no... the fighter the wizard the cleric are all there in name but don't really play at all the same saves and HD hp are all over the place... and it gets worse with the 4th core class where is the thief? as they start to look at barbarians with rage and sorcerer and warlock at all this will feel less and less D&D and more and more "someone's idea of a TTRPG, but NOT D&D"

and why so many hp... and why do all the numbers in general get so big. and on top of all that why do all the classes have the same bonus to hit?

Turn undead, fireball and magic missile? Check

again lables, but would someone looking at the turn tables and then the channel divinity see it as anything other than a name... and again Fire Ball and Magic Missile made issues from 3.5 to 5e imagine not having the intervening years... all of these are in name only.

Color codes dragons? Check.

this one I think is the best argument you have... the small number of monsters, but they still would not recognize ANY of the mechanic as coming from D&D

XP, AC, Alignment? Checks.

XP is the closest here...
AC, not anything they would recognize.
Alignment... people argued 3e gutted it and people who never played 2e claim that 5e destroyed alignment...

There is a lot on top of those things, and some are a little different, but it is obviously E&D and not something adjacent.

we can't get a consensus of MODERN 2022 players to agree on that good luck with a 1981 group that are looking at to hit charts different xp charts classes VRY diffrent