D&D General Darksun Adventure sales from Ben Riggs author of Slaying the Dragon

[darjr]

Does it? I see that it shows that the Core rules sold best. That the sales started with a large number and then had a large drop off. That campaign settings sold closer to the Core rules sold better than those sold later. That rule releases sold better overall, and gave a bump to other products.

That data doesn't say that sales from Dark sun was what made Dragonlance sales decrease, or that releasing Forgotten Realms made Dragonlance decrease.

Instead it shows a distinct pattern of strong sales at the start which then have a drop off.

Nothing indicates that they were cannibalizing their own sales with other lines.

WHAT DID happen (not sure if the book covers it, probably does if Riggs is as thorough as people say it is) is really dumb financial decisions.

When you make a compilation of magic stuff in a book which no one really wants, and start off with a sale price of maybe $15 you might sale a few and perhaps turn a profit. Make it $20 and you will sell less. Then when the boss comes and says...put leather covers on it so that it will cost $50 to make...you just have to scratch your head because that book is NOW going to LOOSE money no matter how you try to sell it. You can't sell enough to make back the money if you sell it at a high enough price point, but if you don't sell it that high, you lose money with each book. It's a lose/lose situation (edit: Example of a situation that may or may not be based on an actual situation that occurred).

It's not that the book CAN'T make money, but the decisions behind how it is going to be published makes it a lose/lose situation. The books COULD make money (and WotC showed that very well with how they "split" the lines at some points, though probably not all the time, at one point in particular it probably had some harsh realities that came to fruition, but not the time to cover that), but decisions were made that were terrible choices.

Investing money into sidelines that had nothing to do with the products being made, relying overly on future sales as hard numbers rather than estimates, counting on borrowed money as income, and many other BAD financial decisions are what sunk TSR most, not the multiple campaign settings themselves. Those are things that I don't recall being mentioned when WotC was trying to advertise 3e, but the reality (boring as it probably would be to most who would read such stuff) is probably the harsher truth. It was really bad financial decisions in regards to money that sunk TSR.

Yes it does.
Making three complicated expensive products for the same money vs making one or two costs you more to make and thus squanders your profits.

 

[Shardstone]

Ben has evidence. It might not match Darcy’s conclusion but it is evidence and shows directly how it hurt them.

Mainly they were chasing the same dollars with more and more complicated products. A significant portion of which were expensive to design and produce and either made them zero dollars (planescape) or cost them money to sell (dsrksun advenures)

Grey Lord's argument is, how come this logic didn't happen when WotC did the exact same thing?

 

[overgeeked]

Ben has evidence.

Ben claims to have evidence. He has not revealed his source. So we only have his word so far.

 

[darjr]

Grey Lord's argument is, how come this logic didn't happen when WotC did the exact same thing?

Because WotC didn’t. It was a variety of companies that were not WotC. Many of which DiD go out of business.

 

[GreyLord]

Yes it does.
Making three complicated expensive products for the same money vs making one or two costs you more to make and thus squanders your profits.

I don't see it. So you are saying that when WotC published Eberron, Forgotten Realms, and Modern that they were squandering their profits?

WotC did the exact same thing, sometimes worse, than TSR did with multiple campaign settings.

If they TRULY believed what was said, they would NEVER have done that.

Look at the actions taken rather than what was said and you'll see that they drew the same conclusions (maybe not Dancey, but the Hasbro execs did and those that talked to them did) I'm talking about.

Once again, looking at simply what the data posted is saying, I don't see what you are stating. I can see how people may make assumptions (finding correlations does not necessarily mean their is a causation). I find strong evidence of the cycle I posted (strong sales at first, drastic drop off) on almost ALL the releases. It is a very predictable pattern from what has been posted. I don't see that they are cannibalizing themselves.

Cannibalizing is normally much more noticeable. I'd expect a graph like that would then show dips and rises, rather than simply a drop off. When one product cannibalizes the other you'd see a drop, then a rise again as it cannibalizes another...etc. I don't see that in these graphs posted.

 

[Parmandur]

Grey Lord's argument is, how come this logic didn't happen when WotC did the exact same thing?

To be honest, WotC made a whole fresh batch of new mistakes. Like trying to sell individual splat books to players instead of DMs. But not the "seperate parallel product line" mistake.

 

[darjr]

Ben claims to have evidence. He has not revealed his source. So we only have his word so far.

Yes and where are the usually outspoken TSR alum that are in a position to contradict him? Like Jim Ward? Who HAS taken loud exception to some of the book, but none of the numbers?

Bruce Heard didn’t even take issue the numbers.

 

[darjr]

I don't see it. So you are saying that when WotC published Eberron, Forgotten Realms, and Modern that they were squandering their profits?

WotC did the exact same thing, sometimes worse, than TSR did with multiple campaign settings.

If they TRULY believed what was said, they would NEVER have done that.

Look at the actions taken rather than what was said and you'll see that they drew the same conclusions (maybe not Dancey, but the Hasbro execs did and those that talked to them did) I'm talking about.

Once again, looking at simply what the data posted is saying, I don't see what you are stating. I can see how people may make assumptions (finding correlations does not necessarily mean their is a causation). I find strong evidence of the cycle I posted (strong sales at first, drastic drop off) on almost ALL the releases. It is a very predictable pattern from what has been posted. I don't see that they are cannibalizing themselves.

Cannibalizing is normally much more noticeable. I'd expect a graph like that would then show dips and rises, rather than simply a drop off. When one product cannibalizes the other you'd see a drop, then a rise again as it cannibalizes another...etc. I don't see that in these graphs posted.

Don’t put words in my mouth. I didn’t say that.

 

[Parmandur]

Ben claims to have evidence. He has not revealed his source. So we only have his word so far.

It coincides with other evidence from the past, and as @darjr says the reception among people who know what's what seem to affirm the data presented.

 

[Parmandur]

I don't see it. So you are saying that when WotC published Eberron, Forgotten Realms, and Modern that they were squandering their profits?

WotC did the exact same thing, sometimes worse, than TSR did with multiple campaign settings.

If they TRULY believed what was said, they would NEVER have done that.

Look at the actions taken rather than what was said and you'll see that they drew the same conclusions (maybe not Dancey, but the Hasbro execs did and those that talked to them did) I'm talking about.

Once again, looking at simply what the data posted is saying, I don't see what you are stating. I can see how people may make assumptions (finding correlations does not necessarily mean their is a causation). I find strong evidence of the cycle I posted (strong sales at first, drastic drop off) on almost ALL the releases. It is a very predictable pattern from what has been posted. I don't see that they are cannibalizing themselves.

Cannibalizing is normally much more noticeable. I'd expect a graph like that would then show dips and rises, rather than simply a drop off. When one product cannibalizes the other you'd see a drop, then a rise again as it cannibalizes another...etc. I don't see that in these graphs posted.

To be fair, WotC didn't start out 3E doing thar, and they stopped pretty quick. Multiple product lines is something they have avoided hard for some time.