D&D (2024) Does anyone else think that 1D&D will create a significant divide in the community?

[GMforPowergamers]

Naw, you show your work on how everything that trends upward for a decade always bursts and is a bubble. It was your claim, I gave you a counter example, so don't do that sealion thing.

done....

the problem isn't that EVERYTHING that trends upward must burst (although what goes up must come down is a descent starting point, that was not, is not and I believe you KNOW wasn't my point)

So we have what I would term normal growth... we know that the numbers WotC has access to (yes according to them don't derail into pointless conspericies or edition wars) that sales always go up... they sold more 3e then 2e was selling, they sold more 3.5 then 3e they sold more 4e then 3.5 and they sold more 5e then 4e...BEFORE the boom.
so the graph trends up we don't have hard numbers, each edition could double, but each edition may only increase 5% on average. We would have to make HUGE assumptions... so I hope we can just agree that it trends up (and most likely not at a steady rate sometimes more sometiems less)

then in the last 5 years something happened (I have my own theory about popcultire and covid makeing a perfect storm with a little bit of finacnal insecurity helping games and such) but we DO know that it increase at a larger rate then normal because we have been told there was a big increase.


so to sum up my answer is where things alway trend up (although we don't know how much) the large growth of 2019-2023 is an anomoly... and as such with it now teetinrgin on poping... maybe they get it right a new edition buzz plus this new movie and TV show may extend it... but my thesisi is (please pay attention): large increases that break standards don't continue growth, and large companies wont except stagnant new normally even if they are double or tipple expectations from a year before.

 

[mamba]

so to sum up my answer is where things alway trend up (although we don't know how much) the large growth of 2019-2023 is an anomoly... and as such with it now teetinrgin on poping

could ‘popping’ then just be going back to more sustainable growth (5-10% or so) rather than the 30% we have seen, rather than actually decreasing?

I would not consider that popping, popping is a sharp decline, not a slower growth

 

[Mistwell]

done....

the problem isn't that EVERYTHING that trends upward must burst (although what goes up must come down is a descent starting point, that was not, is not and I believe you KNOW wasn't my point)

So we have what I would term normal growth... we know that the numbers WotC has access to (yes according to them don't derail into pointless conspericies or edition wars) that sales always go up... they sold more 3e then 2e was selling, they sold more 3.5 then 3e they sold more 4e then 3.5 and they sold more 5e then 4e...BEFORE the boom.
so the graph trends up we don't have hard numbers, each edition could double, but each edition may only increase 5% on average. We would have to make HUGE assumptions... so I hope we can just agree that it trends up (and most likely not at a steady rate sometimes more sometiems less)

then in the last 5 years something happened (I have my own theory about popcultire and covid makeing a perfect storm with a little bit of finacnal insecurity helping games and such) but we DO know that it increase at a larger rate then normal because we have been told there was a big increase.


so to sum up my answer is where things alway trend up (although we don't know how much) the large growth of 2019-2023 is an anomoly... and as such with it now teetinrgin on poping... maybe they get it right a new edition buzz plus this new movie and TV show may extend it... but my thesisi is (please pay attention): large increases that break standards don't continue growth, and large companies wont except stagnant new normally even if they are double or tipple expectations from a year before.

All you've described is product critical mass. "When an idea reaches critical mass there is no stopping the shift its presence will induce." It's the threshold where a product goes from niche to mass market, when they cross a threshold into commonly known brand. ALL commonly known brands go through that threshold point at some point in their growth - where steady growth becomes explosive growth.

The computer you're reading this on went through that sudden explosive growth, where it was first a hobbyist kit you could build (my families first computer was a Healthkit 8088 in the mid 70s) or a room-sized computer for specialized use, and then finally exploded after reaching critical mass. And it wasn't just from technological advances - it took 7 years from the point where the basic home computer chip was fully realized in 1975 to the IBM being common in 1982. And then it took another decade before it was actually in most homes.

Yes, this could be a trend which bursts. Or it could be the new normal and D&D has crossed the critical mass threshold. We won't know for quite some time.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

could ‘popping’ then just be going back to more sustainable growth (5-10% or so) rather than the 30% we have seen, rather than actually decreasing?

yes... I could totally see what ever the number of sales they saw in 2017 having gone up to some huge amount. I would bet that even if it "popped" in 2024 that the new normal would be higher then the projected growth would have been from 2015-2024. However it may hold at a end or it may shirnk a small amount... it will 100% not grow as much post pop then pre pop...

the problem is that in big companies if you grow 7% this year and grow 5% more the next that is a failure and you "lost" 3% of growth. (I do account/book keeping and have had to explain to more then one big boss "no we didn't loose money we made more, just not as much as you wish we did")

I would not consider that popping, popping is a sharp decline, not a slower growth

it depends on what you mean by decline... if it is growing 12% per year right now and next year it is going to hold the same and the year after it grow an addition 2% I would say that is good... but Corp numbers see that as a disaster.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

All you've described is product critical mass. "When an idea reaches critical mass there is no stopping the shift its presence will induce." It's the threshold where a product goes from niche to mass market, when they cross a threshold into commonly known brand. ALL commonly known brands go through that threshold point at some point in their growth - where steady growth becomes explosive growth.

I will argue that no not everything hits that... there ARE things that stay niche, but okay, so there is a decent argument that can be made this will be the exact thing that happened.

The computer you're reading this on went through that sudden explosive growth, where it was first a hobbyist kit you could build (my families first computer was a Healthkit 8088 in the mid 70s) or a room-sized computer for specialized use, and then finally exploded after reaching critical mass. And it wasn't just from technological advances - it took 7 years from the point where the basic home computer chip was fully realized in 1975 to the IBM being common in 1982. And then it took another decade before it was actually in most homes.

yes and so too did cell phones. So too did the card game Dominion... HOWEVER you will notice that Dominion is the one that didn't keep growing.

Yes, this could be a trend which bursts. Or it could be the new normal and D&D has crossed the critical mass threshold. We won't know for quite some time.

I just don't think we are ANYWHERE near saying this is a new normal... critical role stranger things big bang theory all have expiration dates.... sooner or later they stop. If the movie doesn't do good enough to get a sequal (and we still have people on this board talking boycott) I don't know what you think will hold it in public eye

 

[Mistwell]

I just don't think we are ANYWHERE near saying this is a new normal...

Right, which is why I said it COULD BE a new normal, and that WE WON'T KNOW FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

Between you and I, you're the only one making firm declarative predictions. And yet, we're no closer to your prediction being there than my question about the other possibility. So who are you to be declaring we're not "ANYWHERE near" the possibility I've presented when you've presented exactly as much evidence as I have for the other possibility?

My entire point was "take it down a notch son, we have no idea really." Nothing has challenged that point. The best we've seen is "but maybe not" which...is my point as well. It just seems like you're being a bit of a gadfly on this topic.

 

[mamba]

it depends on what you mean by decline

decline to me is a reduction in player numbers (i.e. negative growth), not a reduction in player number growth (i.e. still more players than the year before).

If all you are saying is that they cannot maintain a 30% growth rate indefinitely, then duh, obviously. At the latest they run into problems with that once they got everyone in the world to play

 

[JiffyPopTart]

Kickstarter isn't Eurogames. While some Kickstarters were fore Eurogame-like games, they're nothing close to being the same thing.

I don't think I said Kickstarter=Hobby Games so I apologize if it came across that way.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

If all you are saying is that they cannot maintain a 30% growth rate indefinitely, then duh, obviously

there is a persona post or two above you saying this is the new normal... or atleast may be. So no not obviously

 

[GMforPowergamers]

Right, which is why I said it COULD BE a new normal, and that WE WON'T KNOW FOR QUITE SOME TIME.

a new normal I would think needs more proof then the assumption things will go forward the way history shows

Between you and I, you're the only one making firm declarative predictions.

I will also predict that my grandmother will not hit lotto. I will predict this based on 45 years of watching her buyy tickets and at best winning $300 at a time....
it can change, I may be wrong (someone has to win right?) but if someone told me that her winning or loseing is the same chance (only 2 options so 50/50 right???) I would go with historical trends (and yes I know people that would say win or lose is always 50/50.... but not TTRPG players)