Yeah. 4e had almost unequivocally the worst possible situation it could ever have had:
- Massive economic crisis/downturn right at the start, which led to...
- A major collapse in the publishing industry that killed one of the leading bookstore chains
- Deeply flawed marketing that alienated almost as many people as it pleased
- Both active and passive/subconscious resistance within the dev teams against the concept and spirit of the project
- The horrible bonehead maneuver called the GSL, which literally created...
- Pathfinder, a direct competitor
- A legit actual murder-suicide on the digital tools team, depriving them of their best development minds at a critical point and effectively ensuring the digital tools would fail
- Insufficient word-of-mouth and internet-culture efforts to get the word out, though not totally for lack of trying (Acquisitions Inc. was 4e originally, after all)
Like...fate stacked the deck against 4e even if you
don't count the errors made during its run. If you do, it's a tragedy in three acts.
By comparison, things couldn't have been more favorable to 5e if you tried. The playtest hit
right as the podcast and YouTube boom arrived, spurring massive attention, especially since Pathfinder had become long in the tooth and people had (finally...) started to realize "oh, hey, y'know...I kinda don't like how some of these rules actually PLAY..." As much consternation as it causes me, their focus on popularity, game design be damned, meant they created something a lot of people could find something they liked inside, and many found few dealbreakers. Further, the economic malaise of the Great Recession finally cleared up around the time of release, and international shipping and other such things became cheaper and easier, bootstrapping the already (coincidentally) well-timed launch into the stratosphere; the natural marketing then kept it there, feeding on its own hype.
I genuinely believe that if you swapped the rules of the two editions, what we call 5e in OTL would have struggled immensely and 4e would have been
much better-received.