Are Superhero films dying?

[Snarf Zagyg]

Well you have current box office.

Captain Marvel marketing was specifically tied to the Avengers Saga.

It's a different film, with different leads, released in a different time (post-COVID, post high point of the MCU), and .... wait for it ... DURING THE SAG-AFTRA STRIKE so that none of the stars could do promotional work for it.

The basic problem (which people have been hinting about, some overtly, some less so) is this-

There are people who are making the following argument....

If a movie has a white male lead, then it's just a movie that can be judged on its merits. It can succeed, or flop, because of "regular reasons," ... you know, script, directing, VFX, timing, zeitgeist ... all the factors that make or break a film.

On the other hand, if a film has a woman or minority as the lead, then it's always a referendum on that person's ability to carry the film. And every success is for reasons external to the person, and every failure shows that they can't carry the film.

Which ... is why there is a bit of pushback going on. Captain Marvel and Black Panther were the two most successful MCU Disney movies that weren't Avengers movies, and yet we hear the constant refrain that every single movie is a referendum. Daisy Ridley helped relaunch the Star Wars universe, but when she was let down by corporate idiocy and infighting (and still had billion+ grosses for the next two films), she can't carry the movies. And so on.

People have been gently trying to point out the weird and unfair standard. Margot Robbie was always a great actress- yes, even before Barbie. The success of a movie depends on a lot more than the lead, and ascribing the failure of movies to gender and race of the lead is something we really should have a gimlet eye for.

 

[Zardnaar]

It's a different film, with different leads, released in a different time (post-COVID, post high point of the MCU), and .... wait for it ... DURING THE SAG-AFTRA STRIKE so that none of the stars could do promotional work for it.

The basic problem (which people have been hinting about, some overtly, some less so) is this-

There are people who are making the following argument....

If a movie has a white male lead, then it's just a movie that can be judged on its merits. It can succeed, or flop, because of "regular reasons," ... you know, script, directing, VFX, timing, zeitgeist ... all the factors that make or break a film.

On the other hand, if a film has a woman or minority as the lead, then it's always a referendum on that person's ability to carry the film. And every success is for reasons external to the person, and every failure shows that they can't carry the film.

Which ... is why there is a bit of pushback going on. Captain Marvel and Black Panther were the two most successful MCU Disney movies that weren't Avengers movies, and yet we hear the constant refrain that every single movie is a referendum. Daisy Ridley helped relaunch the Star Wars universe, but when she was let down by corporate idiocy and infighting (and still had billion+ grosses for the next two films), she can't carry the movies. And so on.

People have been gently trying to point out the weird and unfair standard. Margot Robbie was always a great actress- yes, even before Barbie. The success of a movie depends on a lot more than the lead, and ascribing the failure of movies to gender and race of the lead is something we really should have a gimlet eye for.

No one's made that argument though you're strawmanning things.

Next superhero movie up tgat matters us Aquaman 2. It's widely expected to flop or under perform as well. Kravens already getting Morbius type jokes.

We'll have to wait on Ridleys Star Wars movies if it actually gets made.

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

No one's made that argument though you're strawmanning things.

Am I? Really?

... given that people are bending over backwards in cherrypicking comparisons, I feel pretty pretty pretty comfortable stating what has been obvious for a while.

 

[Umbran]

Well you have current box office.

You are honestly trying to directly compare box office numbers form 2019 (pre-covid) and today, as if there aren't a ton of factors between the two eras that impact box office take other than the quality of the actors?

I find that to be a terribly weak position to take.

Captain Marvel marketing was specifically tied to the Avengers Saga. Those credits scenes iirc (its been 3 years for me iirc).

Are you specifically claiming that the high box office take of that film was PRIMARILY because folks were duped?

They had 6 billion dollar movies one year post endgame

Who is "they"?

2019 was a banner year for films - there were 9 films with billion dollar worldwide grosses released that year. This was about twice the average for five years previous. 2019 was not average performance for the movie industry, and should not be taken as a firm point for comparison.

In 2020, covid hit, and the entire industry changed, and has not yet fully recovered. In 2021, there was only one billion-dollar movie. In 2022, there were three. This year, there have only been two.

So, no, The Marvels isn't tracking for billion-dollar status. But, neither is anything else! That should be seen as an aspect of a new reality, not an aspect of quality of films.

I don't think a single MCU film has broken a billion.

See above - to think this has to do with the quality of the films is leaving out most of the world around the movie industry, as if it should be expected to be business as normal. It should not.

 

[Zardnaar]

You are honestly trying to directly compare box office numbers form 2019 (pre-covid) and today, as if there aren't a ton of factors between the two eras that impact box office take other than the quality of the actors?

I find that to be a terribly weak position to take.



Are you specifically claiming that the high box office take of that film was PRIMARILY because folks were duped?



Who is "they"?

2019 was a banner year for films - there were 9 films with billion dollar worldwide grosses released that year. This was about twice the average for five years previous. 2019 was not average performance for the movie industry, and should not be taken as a firm point for comparison.

In 2020, covid hit, and the entire industry changed, and has not yet fully recovered. In 2021, there was only one billion-dollar movie. In 2022, there were three. This year, there have only been two.

So, no, The Marvels isn't tracking for billion-dollar status. But, neither is anything else! That should be seen as an aspect of a new reality, not an aspect of quality of films.



See above - to think this has to do with the quality of the films is leaving out most of the world around the movie industry, as if it should be expected to be business as normal. It should not.

Covid excuse doesn't really hold up. We are still getting billion dollar movies.

What has changed is quantity of them (2019 was abnormal), but more importantly what movies can break a billion. It's not CBM/MCU films now.

 

[Zardnaar]

Am I? Really?

... given that people are bending over backwards in cherrypicking comparisons, I feel pretty pretty pretty comfortable stating what has been obvious for a while.

Personally I think super hero genre is played out over saturation a large part of it.

At least in terms of 300 million+ budgets something like Spiderman can still do well.

 

[Gammadoodler]

Covid excuse doesn't really hold up. We are still getting billion dollar movies.

What has changed is quantity of them (2019 was abnormal), but more importantly what movies can break a billion. It's not CBM/MCU films now.

I dunno. Looks like this year is on track for around $9B in gross box office (straightlining current gross through to end of year - not at all scientific). vs $11B and change in 2019.

That's a $2B gap (and I have no idea how or whether BoxOfficeMojo adjusts for inflation, which is the highest its been in the US in the last 30 years.)

I think it's pretty safe to say that some things have not fully recovered.

 

[Zardnaar]

I dunno. Looks like this year is on track for around $9B in gross box office (straightlining current gross through to end of year - not at all scientific). vs $11B and change in 2019.

That's a $2B gap (and I have no idea how or whether BoxOfficeMojo adjusts for inflation, which is the highest its been in the US in the last 30 years.)

I think it's pretty safe to say that some things have not fully recovered.

2019 was abnormal though. As in stupidly high. How does this year's box office compare with say 2015-18?

2019 was an exceptional year it wasn't a typical year.

We still have billion dollar movies, Black Panther II and GotG3 still got over 800 billion.

 

[Ryujin]

You got the right of it. YS depictions are almost nonexistent. Folks should look to Dark Winds for something in the crime noir vein that has actual multifaceted depictions of indigenous people. Hell Longmire even does a better job of it. However, none of this changes the fact YS is bad or prevents the criticism of it because it has indigenous characters occasionally.

I would recommend the film "Dance Me Outside."

 

[Gammadoodler]

2019 was abnormal though. As in stupidly high. How does this year's box office compare with say 2015-18?

2019 was an exceptional year it wasn't a typical year.

We still have billion dollar movies, Black Panther II and GotG3 still got over 800 billion.

Without commenting on the quality of the data, 2019 looks like it was fairly consistent with the years before it, and lower than 2018.

Worldwide Yearly Box Office

www.boxofficemojo.com