Are Superhero films dying?

[Paul Farquhar]

Superheroes are modern mythology.

Around 70 years ago they were saying the same thing about Westerns.

The thing about "modern" is it is transitory.

 

[Paul Farquhar]

The Spider-Man movies are only nominally (as in, in name only) made by Sony. And the Spiderverse films are the ones actually made by Sony, and are specifically not in the MCU.

That's rather irrelevant to the main topic, which is about superhero movies in general, not the MCU in particular.

But four more bad superhero movies are four more nails in the coffin. It doesn't really matter if they make a loss because they stink, or make a loss because they are superhero movies. The studios will take a look at the numbers and decide superheroes are no longer a good bet.

 

[Zardnaar]

That's rather irrelevant to the main topic, which is about superhero movies in general, not the MCU in particular.

But four more bad superhero movies are four more nails in the coffin. It doesn't really matter if they make a loss because they stink, or make a loss because they are superhero movies.

I don't think the genre will fie but might be like a western or pre MCU. Occasional movie or trilogy every few years.



You're right though about non MCU movies adding to the general mix.

To early to call it imho. Only 1 NCU movie next year barely connected to said MCU.

I wouldn't be dancing on MCUs grave yet either.

Won't know for few more years. I suspect the Kang/Multiverse thing might be killed off.

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

Problem?

Not counting The Marvels, as its run is so new, MCU movies have grossed $7.2 billion since 2021. Some do better than others, but out of the 9 films, only two of them weren't in the top 10 for gross ticket sales in their years, and all were in the top 15 for their years. And the weakest of them got $379 million dollars gross sales worldwide.

That's $7 billion even with the admittedly and agreed tough environment. I am not sure that counts as a "problem".

So, on that. MCU movies that (based on the rule of thumb of profitability) that were unprofitable at the box office since 2021:
Black Widow
Eternals
Shang Chi
Ant Man: Quantumania
The Marvels (based on tracking)


And that were profitable:
Thor: Love and Thunder
BP: Wakanda Forever
GOT 3
Doctor Strange: Multiverse of Madness

....that's not a great hit rate compared to what they had used to do. These movies costs A LOT to make and promote. Which means that movie like Love and Thunder is barely profitable (and may even be unprofitable ... I am giving it the benefit of the doubt). Again, this is just the box office, but .... that's a pretty big change from what we were seeing before.

Look, I'm not the only one saying this. If you follow the Business, you know that this is a big deal ... so much so that Iger is talking about it, and it has caused a change in their future plans. And that's before getting into the massive amounts spent on MCU shows, which don't have that immediate "hit" of a box office. MCU shows reportedly cost $25 million per episode, and Secret Invasion cost a reported $35 million per episode .... HOW?

Yes. We felt unseen when the only content out there was Star Wars, Trek, and pirated anime. Now, we have a plethora, and we complain it is too much! We are a hard bunch to satisfy.

I think you misunderstand what I'm saying. I try to separate out my own feelings about my desires from the business side of things. As I've remarked in the various threads I do specifically about the business side of streaming, I appreciate it when studios and streamers light money on fire for our benefit!

Unfortunately, in a capitalist society, that is rarely something that is sustainable in the long-term. That's why I love peak TV and the amount on prestige TV we have been getting, and hate reality TV, but also understand why streamers are increasingly cutting back on prestige TV and increasing the amount of reality TV on their platforms.

In short, I would love for companies to continue subsidizing my viewing preferences. I just think that it is unlikely. And in terms of superhero content, I don't think that it's going away ... especially if you factor in international versions of the same (after all, RRR and to a lesser extent Jawan echo and adopt conventions of the superhero genre with a local twist) but people do like variety. At a certain point, something else will be the "next big thing." Why? Because it always is. That's the nature of things- something becomes successful. Others rush in to copy that success. Eventually, there are too many things, lessening the specialness and value that made it successful to begin with, and something else becomes the new hotness. People are fickle like that.

 

[Gammadoodler]

So, on that. MCU movies that (based on the rule of thumb of profitability) that were unprofitable at the box office since 2021:
Black Widow
Eternals
Shang Chi
Ant Man: Quantumania
The Marvels (based on tracking)


And that were profitable:
Thor: Love and Thunder
BP: Wakanda Forever
GOT 3
Doctor Strange: Multiverse of Madness

....that's not a great hit rate compared to what they had used to do. These movies costs A LOT to make and promote. Which means that movie like Love and Thunder is barely profitable (and may even be unprofitable ... I am giving it the benefit of the doubt). Again, this is just the box office, but .... that's a pretty big change from what we were seeing before.

Look, I'm not the only one saying this. If you follow the Business, you know that this is a big deal ... so much so that Iger is talking about it, and it has caused a change in their future plans. And that's before getting into the massive amounts spent on MCU shows, which don't have that immediate "hit" of a box office. MCU shows reportedly cost $25 million per episode, and Secret Invasion cost a reported $35 million per episode .... HOW?



I think you misunderstand what I'm saying. I try to separate out my own feelings about my desires from the business side of things. As I've remarked in the various threads I do specifically about the business side of streaming, I appreciate it when studios and streamers light money on fire for our benefit!

Unfortunately, in a capitalist society, that is rarely something that is sustainable in the long-term. That's why I love peak TV and the amount on prestige TV we have been getting, and hate reality TV, but also understand why streamers are increasingly cutting back on prestige TV and increasing the amount of reality TV on their platforms.

In short, I would love for companies to continue subsidizing my viewing preferences. I just think that it is unlikely. And in terms of superhero content, I don't think that it's going away ... especially if you factor in international versions of the same (after all, RRR and to a lesser extent Jawan echo and adopt conventions of the superhero genre with a local twist) but people do like variety. At a certain point, something else will be the "next big thing." Why? Because it always is. That's the nature of things- something becomes successful. Others rush in to copy that success. Eventually, there are too many things, lessening the specialness and value that made it successful to begin with, and something else becomes the new hotness. People are fickle like that.

The 2021 films probably deseve an asterisk given their spot in the COVID recovery timeline. Black Widow, especially, which had all the Disney+ vs. box office release drama that ScarJo sued Disney over.

 

[Nebulous]

I greatly disliked nearly every DC movie, and had low expectations for The Flash, but I ended up really liking it. Ezra Miller still scares me and that career is probably over, but I thought the film was solid. As for Marvel, I am personally sort of burned out, yeah. They need to slow their roll, but Disney has this desire to overwhelm you with content. They did the same with Star Wars.

 

[Clint_L]

Look, I've only been to the movies three times this year, three times in 2022, and four times in 2021. It is hard for it to not be an event, for me. I think I have been out to see more live theater than movies this year. I just cannot relate to this "not an event" assertion.

I can - in fact, the three reasons that I seldom go to films anymore are because it's expensive, a few people behave poorly in movie theatres (talking, phones, etc.), and the movie will be available to watch in the comfort of my home soon. Those factors have been the case for awhile now, but what has changed is that, given those factors, I tend to reserve film-going for movies that feel like a big deal - a spectacle that I want to experience ASAP, with the big screen/big sound, in the presence of other fans, and while Marvel movies used to be that for me, automatically, they are no longer a sure bet. There is a ton of Marvel content available, and a lot of it is mediocre stuff that I feel like I am expected to invest hours into on television so that I can follow the meta-plot. And the multiverse meta-plot does not interest me a whole lot. So it is starting to feel like a chore.

My D+ renewal is coming up, and we are debating whether or not to keep it, since they obnoxiously want me to pay yearly instead of monthly. I want to drop it, and maybe pick it up again in a year or so to catch up on Andor, What We Do in the Shadows, and a few other shows. My son wants to keep it because he is into Futurama. The Marvel shows, which were originally the main reason we got it, are a non-factor in the decision. The whole superhero genre just feels tired and overly complicated, without offering compelling character-driven stories.

 

[Umbran]

....that's not a great hit rate compared to what they had used to do.

Yes, but when three of the five presumed-unprofitable movies were still in the Top-10 Gross for the year, that is telling you things about the market, not about the movies themselves.

I'm not the one who brought in financial performance as a proxy for movie quality. I'd totally agree that the movie business should not be looking to have pre-covid levels of performance going forward, and that moviemakers are apt to take a long, hard look at what they are producing.

I'm just noting that decision is not about the quality of the product. It isn't like, if the movies were "better" (and by better, we mean meeting the particular desires of whoever is lodging the criticism) suddenly box office would explode again. It won't any time soon. It isn't about fatigue with superheroes - if it were, people would speak with the wallets, and go to other movies instead. They aren't.

The market, as a whole, has contracted.

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

Yes, but when three of the five presumed-unprofitable movies were still in the Top-10 Gross for the year, that is telling you things about the market, not about the movies themselves.

I'm not the one who brought in financial performance as a proxy for movie quality. I'd totally agree that the movie business should not be looking to have pre-covid levels of performance going forward, and that moviemakers are apt to take a long, hard look at what they are producing.

I'm just noting that decision is not about the quality of the product. It isn't like, if the movies were "better" (and by better, we mean meeting the particular desires of whoever is lodging the criticism) suddenly box office will explode again. It won't. It isn't about fatigue with superheroes - if it were, people would speak with the wallets, and go to other movies instead. They aren't.

The market, as a whole, has contracted.

I think we are talking past each other. I don't have any particular comments about the quality (or lack thereof) of the MCU movies, or or superhero content in general. I mean, compared to what? Are we including all the MCU shows? Are we including the MCU/Sony Spiderman shows (what about the Sony Spider...character movies, like Venom and Morbius)? Are we including the wider universe of superhero movies (the DCEU)? Are we including superhero content in general (the Boysverse)? And who gets to judge "quality"?

Instead, I think about the issues that drive the business- which is to say that things that were profitable, are less profitable (or unprofitable). Which is what happens when you are making too much stuff at the same time that there isn't the same demand for it (or as you state, the market contracts).

If there is a firehose of content, and there is less of a market ... it's almost like it's one of those Econ 101 things about supply and demand.

Finally, I will again reiterate something that I think is obvious- if the movies continue to cost the same as an "event" movie, but don't bring in the revenue of an event movie (or do so sporadically), then there starts to be a real issue. By your analysis, people shouldn't have worried that much about Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, because, after all, it was the 12th highest grossing movie of 2022. But revenue is only part of the equation. With the costs of making, promoting, and distributing event movies ... well, that's not how it works. Black Adam brought in almost $400 million worldwide, and killed the Rock's superhero career.

 

[Thomas Shey]

I suspect Umbran's point isn't that this isn't a problem, just that its less "superhero fatigue" than "movie fatigue", at least when looking at the movie end of things. That doesn't mean that it doesn't need to be cut back, but it suggests that all big ticket, expensive-to-produce movies may need to have that done.