D&D (2024) Speculation Welcome: What's Next for D&D?

[doctorbadwolf]

Promises which were, what, "this is not a new edition" and "ODD will be 5e compatible?"

And “the OGL SRD will be updated with the revisions in the new 5e core books, just like past SRD updates”, and others. And it isn’t that “ODD will be 5e compatible” it’s “ODD is a project codename, not a product, there is still and will continue to still be just 5e. The core books that come out in and after 2024 will be 5e core books.”

It's just been called "Dungeons & Dragons" since 3rd ed, right? That was one easily labeled "3rd" since it came after the explicitly labeled "2nd Edition." 4th was a different, nigh-incompatible ruleset to the 3rd, making the "4th" label easy enough. Does "5th edition" appear anywhere on 5th edition WotC books (I don't know - I don't buy them)? The 5e Compatible logo is the only one I can think of, and that only appears on non-WotC products.

The 5e PHB refers to the game as D&D 5e.

good call. But 2024 will have its own OGL, and everyone can keep their Creative Commons-5RD, so 5th ed will still be free-to-all. The "compatibility" will probably be that all the sacred cows are still stinking up the barn, but the cowbells and whistles are so different that it's basically pointless to try putting a 5th ed character in with a 6th One D&D character. Like the 3rd to 5th difference.

Come to think of it, since WotC insists that there's no new edition on the way, a third party is free to refer to its product as the 6th edition. Takers?

There is no evidence all that any of this is true.

The public playtest that they are reaching the end of is compatible with existing 5e material. It’s still 5e.

The changes to anything that is in the basic rules or SRD will have the new version added to the SRD, both OGL and CC, and there won’t be a different OGL for the updated core books for 5e. Just a “new” SRD because each big update come in a new SRD under the OGL.

 

[Mirrorrorrim]

I don't see internal pushback as a problem. It's corporate. WotC will just fire and hire if it must.
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Come to think of it, since WotC insists that there's no new edition on the way, a third party is free to refer to its product as the 6th edition. Takers?

In Hasbro and Wizards, there is no "corporate" non-human entity with absolute power. There were actual people who were behind those efforts, who made those decisions without input from other internal teams and the public. Even if they have the same level of influence/power in 2024, they won't be able to just make the same decisions in a vacuum like 2023 didn't happen. Saying "they can just do it again" sounds... like a disconnect.

Regarding the second comment I quoted, in my opinion, there is no one in the world who could successfully claim to make a 6th edition of D&D if they didn't own it. Paizo and ENWorld wouldn't do it as they already have their own popular efforts and don't need to distract their message and marketing. If anyone tried, they'd be laughed out of the room for their audacity. Heck Privateer Press tried to claim that they were the inheritors of real 5E when they spun up early ToV. That went over like a lead balloon with me, at least. Every other game designer is either making compatible clones for business purposes, or is passionate about doing their own thing.

In order for a product to be seen as the spiritual successor to D&D, and be considered the 6th edition of the game, the community would have to designate it such. And that would not happen unless D&D was no longer supported, and there was a third-party edition war to become the new top dog. Most third parties wouldn't allow another third party to claim the throne, uncontested.

 

[delericho]

I think it would be exceptionally hard for new core books published during the 50th anniversary year of Dungeons & Dragons to not sell like crazy. WotC has a knack for stepping on all the rakes they can find, but it would be really hard to screw this one up.

Perhaps. But D&D has been enjoying an unprecedented moment of cultural relevance for almost 10 years now, and it surely has to end some time. A good candidate for that would seem to be the moment when WotC try to get lots of people to replace their $150 core rulebooks with some mechanically-similar $180+ rulebooks.

And with them betting big on D&D (with huge print runs and all the investment in Beyond) and with Hasbro relatively struggling and thus depending on them... I hope it works out for them, I really do. But this is also a moment of not inconsiderable risk.

 

[Queer Venger]

So, we are still waiting for the release date of the new-not-new edition, and some of Wizards of the Coast staff have been cut.

For those of you dice rollers who've taken more than my thirty-odd trips around the sun, what does this mean for the health of the game moving forward? Should we expect less content? Less yearly content releases? Less 3rd party publishers willing to use the OGL?

what's next for D&D is what has always been next for D&D: D&D.
D&D happens at my table, with my friends, in my home. Nothing Hasbro or WotC does will change that.

 

[Retreater]

Short Answer:
"Dogs and cats living together. Mass hysteria!"

Longer Answer:
Some older gamers move away to nostalgia games (OSR) or stuff promoted on old-school social media like YouTube (MCDM). Some stick to 2014 or go back to Pathfinder or 4e (like me). We introduce our players to different game systems and they don't buy into the 2024 printings - and let's be honest, they weren't the market drivers anyway.
Put this way, I GM for 11 players on a weekly basis. I purchase more content than all of them combined. Hasbro has essentially lost me as a customer - so that's 12 customers they lost. I'm not going to be running their games at conventions, game stores, programming at work, etc.

Most Longest Answer:
Nerd culture is going to retreat into the background in the next several years. No, not just because of D&D, but I think it will happen. Game of Thrones has been forgotten. Stranger Things is wrapping up this season. Superhero films have stopped rocking the box office. Comics have been dead for years. The one thing still selling is a direct competitor to D&D - and that's video games.
So we're going to see what happened during the 4e era. We're going to start losing players to Baldur's Gate and other video games just like we lost to WoW. The booming success of 5e was a fluke, and most of the players who came in are going to fade to other hobbies or adult responsibilities. Hasbro might retain 10% of the new fans they gained over the past 5 years. This will probably mean that WotC doesn't generate the income it needs to, Hasbro continues to suffer financially, and likely ends up bankrupt in the next year or so.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Well, that took a turn.

 

[Retreater]

Well, that took a turn.

Well, the good news is that it doesn't ultimately change much for us who have been in the hobby for decades. It just plateaus and the industry normalizes after an incredible boom. And we can be glad that we lived through that period.
The growth the TTRPG industry has had in the past 5 years is unsustainable.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

Short Answer:
"Dogs and cats living together. Mass hysteria!"

Longer Answer:
Some older gamers move away to nostalgia games (OSR) or stuff promoted on old-school social media like YouTube (MCDM). Some stick to 2014 or go back to Pathfinder or 4e (like me). We introduce our players to different game systems and they don't buy into the 2024 printings - and let's be honest, they weren't the market drivers anyway.
Put this way, I GM for 11 players on a weekly basis. I purchase more content than all of them combined. Hasbro has essentially lost me as a customer - so that's 12 customers they lost. I'm not going to be running their games at conventions, game stores, programming at work, etc.

Most Longest Answer:
Nerd culture is going to retreat into the background in the next several years. No, not just because of D&D, but I think it will happen. Game of Thrones has been forgotten. Stranger Things is wrapping up this season. Superhero films have stopped rocking the box office. Comics have been dead for years. The one thing still selling is a direct competitor to D&D - and that's video games.
So we're going to see what happened during the 4e era. We're going to start losing players to Baldur's Gate and other video games just like we lost to WoW. The booming success of 5e was a fluke, and most of the players who came in are going to fade to other hobbies or adult responsibilities. Hasbro might retain 10% of the new fans they gained over the past 5 years. This will probably mean that WotC doesn't generate the income it needs to, Hasbro continues to suffer financially, and likely ends up bankrupt in the next year or so.

Bummer, man. I think I'm gonna go cry into my whiskey now!

 

[SlyFlourish]

I think its important to remember that prediction by experts (which I think includes a lot of us here) is highly inaccurate. How many people speculated that Hasbro would try to violate their own license agreement two years ago?

I think we can probably draw some trend-lines though. I think WOTC definitely wants to focus more on digital tools – particularly D&D Beyond. They've clearly been experimenting with lower-priced Beyond-only material. I think we're certainly going to see printed core books because those sold, and continue to sell, really well; but other books may move to more digital only space. Maybe they put out lots of small stuff and then build big books with the best of it in there like new Xanathar or Tasha books.

I don't know what's going to happen to the rest of 5e. It's open now, which is awesome. There's more cool 5e material than we could ever run in our whole lives, frankly. I'm sure we'll see more stuff and I'm sure it'll be awesome.

But imagine this for a minute. There are millions of new players to D&D where this is their first edition. There could be a lot of nostalgia for that in twenty years to capture the fun of playing D&D at the table again. Luckily there are millions of copies of the PHB in circulation and lots of other variants being published.

For me, I'm going to be building my fun little city sourcebook this year and doing the same stuff I've done for the past 15 years or so and watch what happens.

 

[TheSword]

Short Answer:

The same thing there’s always been. Folks doing the best they can with what they’ve got, and having fun doing it.


Longer Answer:

The OGL issue didn’t turn off many folks who weren’t already wavering and the vast majority of players barely recognized it. Older players may leave but they will be replaced by a new of generation of the kids and grandkids of older players who just enjoy the game for what it is and do’t get into the politics of who makes their consumables. If folks aren’t really buying stuff then them switching to not buy 4e or Pathfinder instead doesn’t actually matter.


Definitely Longest Answer:

Geek culture isn’t retreating. It’s mainstreamed. It’s no longer freakish or bizarre. The youth don’t spend as much money on nights out. They spend it on nights in with friends. Online resources and tools makes the gaming community more accessible than ever. Gaming becomes a great way lonely people can connect in a healthy way. D&D becomes a staple of schools, of therapy, of team building and the classy choice of actors and celebs to relax.

Computer games - which have always existed and are fundamentally different to the social game that is DND - will become more nuanced and character driven and it will be easier and easier to make the jump from CRPG towards TTRPG. In fact many tools will be transferable. The digital resources developed by WotC and others will narrow the gap in aesthetics between games and new generations will start to see them as synonymous. WotC will make money from these assets without compromising the fundamental ability of people to play the game without them.

D&D will continue to be the industry giant and eventually stabilize as new player acquisition will balance out with gamers leaving the hobby - but many will play causally or come and go from the game as their life and social groups dictate. A simpler evergreen system will make this easy.

D&D will continue the measured steady pace of release actively fighting bloat and continue to be good shepherds of the IP. This will still generate cries for more products but that’s a nice problem to have which will be serviced by the many 3pp who continue making niche products for compatibility. Those 3pp that distance themselves from 5e will expend great resources trying to maintain relevancy for their particular flavour of spaghetti sauce. Their obsession to make their own gaming languages will cause their player bases to crystallize becoming ever more fanatical and isolated from D&D. Eventually they return to the fold craving the wider community they used to be part of. Most folks won’t notice or care, but will refer to them as Grognards.

The anniversary edition will be well received and become the model for future edition updates. Evolution not revolution. It will generate millions more players.

People on En World will still be claiming that the sky is falling down around us - or at least it will any minute. Some day soon… just you wait… then you’ll see.