D&D (2024) Speculation Welcome: What's Next for D&D?

[CapnZapp]

Which will never happen. If D&D falters, it will go into the vault and will be used to brand cheap mobile games and coffee mugs.

Perhaps we'll see a new game based on Pathfinder 1, then. Or EnWorld's own Level Up.

There would be a massive (relatively speaking, at least) market bereft of their dose of D&D. I don't think there's any need to worry (even assuming you think this vault future is likely).

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Should we expect less content? Less yearly content releases?

No. All indications from Hasbro in recent years is that they want more content annually, not less. Most content nowadays is made by freelancers, including freelance editors, overseen by in-house WotC staff. They should be able to keep producing content at a regular clip.

Less 3rd party publishers willing to use the OGL?

Almost certainly. Most third party publishers have made no secret of how betrayed they felt last year. And between the new licenses like ORC and the SRD going into Creative Commons, I can't imagine there's a lot of incentive for them to use the OGL, unless some juicy new content gets added to it, which I would bet against. (The Hasbro folks uncomfortable with the OGL may have lost the battle, but there's no indication that they've lost their positions within the company.)

 

[CapnZapp]

Folks like playing online.

More importantly, online players are prepared to pay for the privilege.

What I'm driving at is, even if most players still play at home, this is a ridiculously cheap hobby. Five people around a table can get by with a very small amount of yearly cash expenditure. It's basically if the DM purchases modules to run. Either way, it's next to nothing compared to almost every other hobby.

Which makes the online segment attractive.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

I would love the ENWorld forums to include a "5e Indy" tag. This would discuss any and every 5e-compatible product from independent publishers. To find and read about desirable 5e indy products, along with critiques of its strengths and weaknesses − such game balance and customizability − would be super helpful to me.

"Indie" is a great term. It would clearly differentiate what we're talking about -- and as @SlyFlourish has argued, now that 5E's SRD is in Creative Commons, "third party" makes a lot less sense now -- and frankly, indie bands are cooler than the big corporate label bands and that's often true in the RPG space as well.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

I also think the answer of the question is "it depends", and based on two big unknowns: how are the 2024 books received by the market (a new surge in popularity?

I think it would be exceptionally hard for new core books published during the 50th anniversary year of Dungeons & Dragons to not sell like crazy. WotC has a knack for stepping on all the rakes they can find, but it would be really hard to screw this one up.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

Well, the point was "designer kicked off the edition intimates a new edition is on the horizon" that I was asking about.

The post you responded to was referring to how Heinsoo made 13th Age after making 4e and, I assume, is expecting Mearls to play with 5e in a similar way (Mearls looks to be working on 3pp 5e content - whether that results in something like 13A but for 5e? Who knows?)

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Which will never happen. If D&D falters, it will go into the vault and will be used to brand cheap mobile games and coffee mugs.

Well, more of them.

(Seriously, the same 20 pieces of art seem to be licensed across the entire internet. Can we get a few more pieces made available for license, WotC?)

 

[FitzTheRuke]

"Indie" is a great term. It would clearly differentiate what we're talking about -- and as @SlyFlourish has argued, now that 5E's SRD is in Creative Commons, "third party" makes a lot less sense now -- and frankly, indie bands are cooler than the big corporate label bands and that's often true in the RPG space as well.

It's what we use in comics. "Indie" tends to be everyone other than Marvel & DC. Here it would probably be "everyone other than WotC (and maybe Paizo)". It's apt!

 

[GMMichael]

Wizards got their butts swatted after their OGL shenanigans last year and they know it. Remember that it was not the entire company driving the change, only a small faction of high-ups. The designers and other teams were against it. I think there would be too much internal pushback for the company to try and backpedal on last year's promises.

Promises which were, what, "this is not a new edition" and "ODD will be 5e compatible?"

It's just been called "Dungeons & Dragons" since 3rd ed, right? That was one easily labeled "3rd" since it came after the explicitly labeled "2nd Edition." 4th was a different, nigh-incompatible ruleset to the 3rd, making the "4th" label easy enough. Does "5th edition" appear anywhere on 5th edition WotC books (I don't know - I don't buy them)? The 5e Compatible logo is the only one I can think of, and that only appears on non-WotC products.

So far, an "edition" is really a self-applied label from WotC. It's subjective. Really, WotC could call 5th edition "3.8" and not be incorrect...and with the "3" in there, it wouldn't be a completely new edition.

Would it be compatible? Again, unless there's an international standard of compatibility to which WotC is beholden, it's subjective. Were 3.0 and 3.5 compatible? Were they different editions? I used my Monstrous Manual at the same time as my Monster Manual. Does that make them compatible?

I don't see internal pushback as a problem. It's corporate. WotC will just fire and hire if it must.

I predict that the new 2024 rules will be released into the Creative Commons around time of the PHB release. The same will happen with each of the other 2 core books when they come out. While some may say that the new SRD should go live early so 3rd party companies can prepare and release compatible products sooner, I don't think that will happen. . .

This is a good call. But 2024 will have its own OGL, and everyone can keep their Creative Commons-5RD, so 5th ed will still be free-to-all. The "compatibility" will probably be that all the sacred cows are still stinking up the barn, but the cowbells and whistles are so different that it's basically pointless to try putting a 5th ed character in with a 6th One D&D character. Like the 3rd to 5th difference.

Come to think of it, since WotC insists that there's no new edition on the way, a third party is free to refer to its product as the 6th edition. Takers?

 

[Remathilis]

Perhaps we'll see a new game based on Pathfinder 1, then. Or EnWorld's own Level Up.

There would be a massive (relatively speaking, at least) market bereft of their dose of D&D. I don't think there's any need to worry (even assuming you think this vault future is likely).

Without repeating myself from other threads, I think PF1 was lightning in a bottle, and the death of official D&D will reset the market to a bunch of niche, balkanized clones with limited reach. No company would get big enough to fill its shoes, the whole market just shrinks to around the edges of a D&D-sized hole where the survivors live.

Of course, I'm not Nostradamus, but I would rather take my chances in a world where D&D thrives despite Hasbro and that enables engagement with 3pp games (rising tide, etc) than a world where D&D has failed and 3pp pick at the corpse for scraps.