Mirrorrorrim
Hero
I disagree about both nerd culture going away, and about Wizards and D&D failing. Assuming the world doesn't just fall apart from war and other BS, nerd culture isn't going away. The world is becoming more remote and digital, and as long as nerdy entertainment can be distributed, its popularity will continue. Certain creators may fall out of favor (GoT, HP, and many Disney brands seem to be suffering), but they will be replaced by others. Just look at how CR, Dim20, and BG3 fandoms took over TTRPGTok (but maybe that is just my feed, and I'm in a bubble?).
As for D&D, generally speaking, I think the Community already expects to see game/edition updates every 10 years or so. When that happens, some people want something brand new (maybe they are bored) and some people want more of the same (because they like it and want to keep investing in an evergreen product that never goes out of style). None of those people are wrong, as that is just a personal preference. Additionally, Wizards is not objectively wrong for choosing one path over the other, unless after the fact the market informs them that their sales and revenue for their chosen path did not deliver their expectations.
As for removing D&D or Wizards from one's life, if a particular group doesn't like the current game, they may go another path. That is the most solid and understandable motivation to leave a game. That said, I don't think this is a large population that will destroy Wizards. At least those people won't outnumber the influx of new people brought in from growing D&D-playing families, or adjacent fandoms like CR, BG3, Dim20, liveplays, or fantasy tv shows based on D&D like Legend of Vox Machina.
If a particular group likes D&D, but doesn't want to support Hasbro or Wizards, they may also go another path. But they will reeeeally have to want to cut Wizards and D&D off, or what will actually happen is just that they'll keep playing the game with the products they already own, and may still buy 3rd party products (or even the occasional Wizards product) if a particular product is right up their alley. (I know 2 Wizards-dissenters who are still buying the Deck of Many Things because it is such an enticing product.) I also don't think this is a large population that will destroy Wizards.
As for growing the dissent against Wizards, there may be op-ed pieces that go after Wizards and Hasbro to call out their occasional bullspit, but those op-ed writers can't afford to get that messaging wrong. Any evidence of inaccuracy, hyperbole, or perceived inappropriate outrage is going to cause some people to ignore the critics. People know what they like. It takes a lot for someone to be convinced to give up their passions. Some think Wizards' offenses are mild compared to the global horrors other corporations and industries put humanity through. Also, some people just want to play their games and forget the BS in the world. And they are not wrong or evil if they don't join the outrage.
5E's success isn't a fluke. They not only planned their product lines and partnerships well (WizKids, DDB, Larian, D&DHAT, etc.), but when unplanned opportunities popped up (like partnerships with Acquisitions Inc., Critical Role, Big Bang Theory, Community, etc.), Wizards made some really good reactive decisions and capitalized on those opportunities. They made more impactful good decisions than bad. It's only recently that their bad decisions are getting aired out and causing significant headwinds.
Wizards has a great big boat that is well-suited survive the low and high tides. They have with every older error or controversy they've weathered, from the problems that came with every D&D edition transition, to transitioning from TSR, to Wizards, to Hasbro, to the failed Gleemax initiative, to the OGL debacle, to the art and writing editors missing inappropriate stuff, etc.
Now, Wizards can still mess it up (especially for some individual fans with strong wills) but they can also still totally salvage it for the greater fandom. They just have to align with the values of the younger generation, create things that excite people, and fix their processes and communication well enough to make fans feel comfortable letting go of the errors of the past, to focus on future fun.
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