D&D (2024) D&D Pre-orders; this is sad

[UngeheuerLich]

it's not baseless, it is an educated guess. Do I have WotC's numbers, no, but that does not mean it still has a probability of > 95%

What you call educated, I call wild.

Please give numbers for your probabilities.
I don't know what you do for a living. I do math. So please give at least some numbers.

Edit: after my post you edited in some numbers. So Ibhave to look over it to estimate if those are enough to make a halfway educated guess.
My educated guess: probably not.

Edit 2: you gave the table you think is important.
No it is not. How many people would buy digital if books were not an option. A very often overlooked very important detail: how big is the overlap between book buyers and digital buyers.
Then there is visibility. Are books working like ads? And so on.

 

[mamba]

What you call educated, I call wild.

yeah, feel free to disagree,

I don't know what you do for a living. I do math. So please give at least some numbers.

I gave you some numbers for the print, for DDB, the book sells for $25 to $30, I would not be surprised if 80% of that were profit, which is already more than the gross they get for the book

My educated guess: probably not.

yeah, I would not call that educated, but neither one can show they are correct, so I guess we just have to disagree...

 

[UngeheuerLich]

yeah, feel free to disagree,


I gave you some numbers for the print, for DDB, the book sells for $25 to $30, I would not be surprised if 80% of that were profit, which is already more than the gross they get for the book


yeah, I would not call that educated, but neither one can show they are correct, so I guess we just have to disagree...

I don't have to prove that.
You have to prove it. And those numbers are just a tiny fraction of the important details.
Deducing from that is not how math actually works. I know this for sure (as in 100%).

I don't feel to disagree.
I know that what you are doing is methodically wrong. As in 100% wrong.

I don't compare it to different things that are lile your method of prooving something (just picking some convenient numbers and ignoring the rest), because I don't want to attract moderators.

Lets just leave it at that: you don't know how statistics or mathematical modelling works.

 

[Chaosmancer]

by moving more people away from print and onto digital. Have exclusive digital stuff: check, increase the print price but not digital: check, expand digital options (VTT, Maps): check

Will take some time, but it is clearly the direction WotC is moving in

So the Core Books will stop being the product that the non-DnD general public see as their gateway into DnD by... moving people away from print books and onto digital products. How does Hasbro do this while Amazon cannot?

How does having exclusive digital rewards for people who go looking for digital DnD products get someone who isn't looking for DnD to discover the product? Same for expanding VTT's, how does that entice someone who has never played DnD into playing DnD?

How does increasing the print price stop the print products from being carried in brick-and-mortar stores? That doesn't seem like that would stop them from being the entry product at all.

irrelevant, you said why would anyone pick up digital D&D when they are not playing D&D already. It happens with games all the time

where do you live? Most are digital downloads. I have not been in a computer store in at least 10 years, probably closer to 20, not even to get a computer…

I went to Best Buy a few months ago to get a new computer. There were computer games obviously being advertised in clear sight of where I was shopping. That sort of connection is not irrelevant. You are far more likely to get someone to look at your game if it is being sold next to the physical product it is being played on. You then buy the box... that has a code for the digital download and subscription. But they sell a physical marker there for a reason. It isn't because they never increase their sales by taking such a method.

do you think they will do so right away?


yes to all of this. They make a lot of money now, going to digital will make them even more, and even optional subscriptions make them yet more

And they would make even more money if they can force people to buy their food through WotC's digital marketplace, as well as the gas for their cars. Yet, I doubt that would happen. And, even if they offer an "optional subscription" that doesn't make a walled garden where we can no longer access WoTC materials. Nor does "but they might!" really convince anyone.

doesn’t have to be rules, so far they stuck to adventures and monsters, somewhat down the line it could be subclasses as well

Did you ignore my earlier post with the video from D4 Deep Dive? Here is another.


By watching this video, you can learn every single ability and how it works for the Fathomless Warlock. Which is not in the SRD, and is not something in the core rules. So, how long do you think exclusive subclasses would remain behind a paywall, and not somewhere that a DM can take some pencil and paper and write them down for their own use?

Monsters? That same playlist has TWO videos that have full details on the Kraken statblock. Again, how does WoTC keep these things hidden from people when the entire community is currently set up to give us this information for free?

They make me pay for adventures? Okay... I usually don't buy the adventures anyways. I mostly bum copies off of friends who bought them. And I never run pre-made adventures anyways, so who cares if they are digitally exclusive?

we just had a price increase, digital stayed the same. Not saying it will never increase, but the gap will keep widening

Can you prove that the gap will continue widening?

 

[Chaosmancer]

I don’t know about you, but from my experience board games get played a few times a year and many are abandoned after a few evenings. Not sure how you think that lends itself to a subscription service

Are there some ‘hardcore’ board gamers, probably, but I see it as a much more casual market that does not lend itself to a subscription model easily

So what makes DnD different and ripe for being a subscription model? I only need a few days of the service to copy everything that was digital and play for years, but that will be a superior subscription model for some reason? If there are markets that aren't subscription friendly, then doesn't make sense that DnD could be unfriendly to such a model?

 

[UngeheuerLich]

So what makes DnD different and ripe for being a subscription model? I only need a few days of the service to copy everything that was digital and play for years, but that will be a superior subscription model for some reason? If there are markets that aren't subscription friendly, then doesn't make sense that DnD could be unfriendly to such a model?

If you subscribe, WotC knows where you live and will send ninjas if you unsibscribe and delete everything from every storage you own, of course. What do you think?

 

[Parmandur]

it's not baseless, it is an educated guess. Do I have WotC's numbers, no, but that does not mean it doesn't have a probability of > 95%

For an estimate of WotC gets per book, see Estimating D&D’s Revenue | Alphastream

"If the above model were true for D&D, a product like the $59.95 Bigby’s might look as follows:

• $60 retail price, which is what your FLGS charges you.
• $30 is what the retail store paid to the distributor.
• $15 is what the distributor paid to the gaming company.
• $15 is what the gaming company gets for all of its work. This must cover salaries, printing, art, editing, marketing, etc."

They easily make more profit per book on DDB

Honestly, they could easily make the exact same amount per book on Behind just as easily.

 

[mamba]

I don't have to prove that. You have to prove it.

wrong, if you state the opposite is true, you too have to prove that, If you say you are unconvinced you do not have to prove anything, but you said "My educated guess: probably not." which is exactly what I said ("my educated guess: almost certainly"), so we both made a positive claim and we both would need to back it up

Lets just leave it at that: you don't know how statistics or mathematical modelling works.

you seem to be mighty impressed with your math skills the last few days... Math is the least of the problems here, it is all pretty basic

 

[UngeheuerLich]

wrong, if you state the opposite is true, you too have to prove that, If you say you are unconvinced you do not have to prove anything, but you said "My educated guess: probably not." which is exactly what I said ("my educated guess: almost certainly"), so we both made a positive claim and we both would need to back it up

I don't state the opposite is true. I just doubt that you have any clue.
My guess was targeting you having enough numbers. You have not. Proved that yourself.

You seem to be mighty impressed with your math skills the last few days... Math is the least of the problems here, it is all pretty basic

I am shocked by yours, if you think that all is "basic" math. To be honest.
Amd even if it was, we don't have enough numbers to make any educated guess. Right now, I see no way your conclusions have any base.
Some of your observations are even false (price increas of books, neglecting inflation*).

*Where we are at basic math. Assuming average 2% inflation, 50 dollars 10 years ago are 61 dollars now.

 

[mamba]

So the Core Books will stop being the product that the non-DnD general public see as their gateway into DnD by... moving people away from print books and onto digital products. How does Hasbro do this while Amazon cannot?

I assume you are talking about digital books in general... because D&D is not book, it is a game, so WotC has to offer a digital experience that makes most people prefer the online version, enter the VTT.

Granted, if the VTT does not take off, then that strategy has failed, but it will not be for a lack of trying

How does increasing the print price stop the print products from being carried in brick-and-mortar stores? That doesn't seem like that would stop them from being the entry product at all.

it does not stop them from being carried, it means there is more incentive to get the digital version instead. You always focus on what happens in the next 12 months when I am very clear that I am talking about the next 15 years...

I went to Best Buy a few months ago to get a new computer. There were computer games obviously being advertised in clear sight of where I was shopping. That sort of connection is not irrelevant.

What percentage of games do you think is in stores vs digital downloads? About 90% are the latter. Once WotC has accomplished that ratio, they can pull the trigger, for now they have to work towards that

Can you prove that the gap will continue widening?

of course not, neither can you prove the opposite. This is all speculation and a matter of probabilities, not solid proof. I have been very clear on this in several posts already. If you think anyone here has solid proof for one side or the other, you are kidding yourself. As I said, if I had to bet, I would bet on me being right, that is all there is to it

I'd say we are good here, I posted why I believe what I believe, take it or leave it. There is not much point in continuing to argue about it