D&D (2024) Motley Fool Prediction: New Dungeons & Dragons Edition Won't Help Hasbro Much

[mamba]

If they phrase the question like this “Will sales of these new-edition rulebooks be enough to "move the needle" on a stock that has seen its revenues shrink for three straight years and that lost a staggering $1.5 billion just last year?” then the answer is an obvious no, the new books will not save all of Hasbro from whatever issues Hasbro is having.

The question is so silly, it did not really need asking, but since they did ask, they could have provided a much better answer for it than they actually did.

Pointing out that WotC only grew moderately in 2014 and 2015 and still attributed most of that growth to MtG means that we should not see a D&D bump in 2024/25 is also ludicrous. In 2014 it was basically dead, in 2024 it is at an all time high, that might have had something to do with the limited impact on WotC’s numbers back then.

Hedging this projected lack of impact with an “Admittedly, Dungeons & Dragons is a much bigger business today than it was 10 years ago. And it has a larger fanbase and a larger pool of radiance in which to fish for potential buyers for the new rulebooks. That could mean Hasbro will get a bigger lift this time around than last time.” is also pretty lame.

How about some actual analysis, I could have written a better article than this one

 

[mamba]

5.5e PHB will sell like gangbusters but that's it

But that's not for the reason why this article says.

what reason did the article give? As far as I can tell it gave none and did not even say it would sell like gangbusters…

 

[TiQuinn]

The question is so silly, it did not really need asking, but since they did ask, they could have provided a much better answer for it than they actually did.

The Motley Fool is very likely an AI mill at this point so I wouldn’t take anything they write seriously.

 

[Minigiant]

what reason did the article give? As far as I can tell it gave none and did not even say it would sell like gangbusters…

History.

But 5e is unprecedented and ahistorical.

5.5e's issue profitwise will b That it is mechanically and narratively old.

It is 10 years old AND is still using a skeleton and settings designed for people well out of the age range (45+) of its primary consumer base (<45).

If it doesn't drift soon, it will slide into "Fellow Kids" territory.

 

[Oofta]

...
It is 10 years old AND is still using a skeleton and settings designed for people well out of the age range (45+) of its primary consumer base (<45).
...

Yet somehow whenever we get demographic data, only a minority of players are over 45. Almost as if those younger buyers actually like the game.

 

[mamba]

History

I read that as their reason for why it would not sell like gangbusters (they basically said 5e made little impact on WotC’s numbers in 2014 and 2015, so we should not expect any different now, but since it took off from 2016 on, that delayed success could happen now too), which is a ludicrous analysis, the situation is nothing like 2014/15

 

[bedir than]

The Motley Fool is very likely an AI mill at this point so I wouldn’t take anything they write seriously.

Even if that's not true, their target audience is not people who play D&D, but people who see stocks as investments.
They were never going to give big details, because Hasbro's 4-5th most popular brand would never move the needle through a single book release.

 

[Shardstone]

The holy trinity of Stranger Things+Covid+Critical Role will be hard to recreate.
Sometimes things just happen.

Covid was orders of magnitude bigger for D&D than the other two things combined.

 

[Oofta]

Even if that's not true, their target audience is not people who play D&D, but people who see stocks as investments.
They were never going to give big details, because Hasbro's 4-5th most popular brand would never move the needle through a single book release.

If you know nothing about the TTRPG industry, a new release might seem like a bigger thing than it is. Even if it does amazingly well by D&D sales standards (and I hope it does reasonably well), it's still a minor bump on overall bottom line .

 

[Minigiant]

Yet somehow whenever we get demographic data, only a minority of players are over 45. Almost as if those younger buyers actually like the game.

Liking the game now and Liking the game later paying for it are 2 different things.

THAT is the history they should talk about.

5e will get stale if they don't have creative minds who can adapt to the current situation.

WOTC's history is that they are often behind the times.