D&D (2024) Motley Fool Prediction: New Dungeons & Dragons Edition Won't Help Hasbro Much

[Shardstone]

What would Wotc have to do to move the needle for the TTRPG revenue?
An actual new edition? Better adventures/AP's? More splat books?

Hire me and my godlike vision to lead the company on a thousand year voyage of prosperity.

 

[Minigiant]

Yes, and?

Do not mistake being ahead or behind the current fashion for financial success. F'rex: Levi Strauss. By no means leaders of the fashion industry - they aren't the couture designers for Fashion Week, or anything. But, they had revenues in excess of six billion dollars last year.

Being a main provider of the center of the market, rather than on the forefront, has its perks.

I'm not hedging the 5th edition is timeless design nor that it can stay popular without fresh dressings.

 

[Umbran]

What would Wotc have to do to move the needle for the TTRPG revenue?

Oh, don't get us wrong - in terms of TTRPG sales, this will probably be off the charts of any other game.

But, Hasbro is a company with revenues on the order of $5 or $6 billion per year. For a single thing to move Hasbro's needle, it needs to be on the order of a hit movie or video game. Books aren't going to do it. Nobody should expect books to do it.

 

[Oofta]

What would Wotc have to do to move the needle for the TTRPG revenue?
An actual new edition? Better adventures/AP's? More splat books?

Licensing, video games, theoretically streaming (although that's hitting a rough patch), maybe a movie with a more reasonable budget that isn't released with just about the worst possible timing.

Even a successful and profitable VTT isn't going to make that big a splash on overall company bottom line.

 

[KYRON45]

Oh, don't get us wrong - in terms of TTRPG sales, this will probably be off the charts of any other game.

But, Hasbro is a company with revenues on the order of $5 or $6 billion per year. For a single thing to move Hasbro's needle, it needs to be on the order of a hit movie or video game. Books aren't going to do it. Nobody should expect books to do it.

I guess my question is; what's the next big thing for D&D?
That's probably a question for another thread. But that will just devolve into how much people hate Wotc.

 

[mamba]

What would Wotc have to do to move the needle for the TTRPG revenue?
An actual new edition? Better adventures/AP's? More splat books?

the VTT might move the needle, a new movie might, BG4 might, books won’t

 

[Scribe]

Covid was orders of magnitude bigger for D&D than the other two things combined.

Yeah I'm looking at a few of my hobbies or lapsed ones and am interested on what happens when the comic bubble players rotate out.

Retention should be priority right now.

 

[borringman]

Thing is, D&D enjoyed an explosion of popularity through a string of coincidences that WotC had absolutely nothing to do with, and are extremely unlikely to happen again.

Don't get me wrong, 5E was doing fine on its own. But then Stranger Things came out of nowhere, COVID-19 came out of nowhere, Critical Role came out of nowhere. Things like OSR didn't hurt, either. COVID-19 was huge for D&D. Mainstream celebrities crawled out of the woodwork to tell the world it kept them sane. When is D&D ever again going to get a boost like that?

But shareholders are irrational lunatics, they won't accept reality, which is maybe why WotC was compelled to start that whole OGL and VTT fiascos. They're going to have to do crazy things to meet the new growth expectations, which is why I fear the worst -- this is how companies implode.

 

[Frozen_Heart]

I worry that because of Hasbro's mentality, they're expecting huge things from 5.5e and everything surrounding it.

So that if it does anything other than 'spectacular', the execs up top will decide that DnD isn't as good as they hoped and start moving the brand onto life support.

'Good' isn't enough for these people. They need endless forever growth for them to consider it worth it.

 

[Clint_L]

Anyone who thought releasing three updated versions of books that one of their subdivisions already sells was going to make a significant short term difference in Hasbro’s spreadsheets probably shouldn’t be an investor.