D&D (2024) Motley Fool Prediction: New Dungeons & Dragons Edition Won't Help Hasbro Much

[Clint_L]

Yet somehow whenever we get demographic data, only a minority of players are over 45. Almost as if those younger buyers actually like the game.

A tiny minority, at that. This forum is not remotely representative.

 

[mamba]

Thing is, D&D enjoyed an explosion of popularity through a string of coincidences that WotC had absolutely nothing to do with, and are extremely unlikely to happen again.

those coincidences feel highly overrated. They did not hurt, sure, but they did not really help all that much either, the trajectory did not change much because of them.

They're going to have to do crazy things to meet the new growth expectations, which is why I fear the worst -- this is how companies implode.

will be interesting to see if they can get to the next level, the big bet seems to be the VTT.

If they implode, they implode, it’s not like I am that impressed with what they produce anyway

 

[Shardstone]

those coincidences feel highly overrated. They did not hurt, sure, but they did not really help all that much either, the trajectory did not change much because of them.


will be interesting to see if they can get to the next level, the big bet seems to be the VTT.

If they implode, they implode, it’s not like I am that impressed with what they produce anyway

Stranger Things especially gets a lot of credit for doing almost nothing. The monsters share a name but are vastly different, the only D&D they play is some ancient stuff people only've heard of on Enworld and Dragon's Foot, and I've literally never had a new player tell me they got into D&D because of Stranger Things -- anecdotal but still.

 

[DarkCrisis]

It's the only Core 3 they will print after awhile. Those slow to adopt will usually end up getting it because if you want to find a game of D&D it's 1000% easier to do with the latest edition. Ask anyone trying to find a 4th ed on down game.

Welcome to an Edition Change. People gripe but usually get on board sooner or later.

 

[Oofta]

Thing is, D&D enjoyed an explosion of popularity through a string of coincidences that WotC had absolutely nothing to do with, and are extremely unlikely to happen again.

Don't get me wrong, 5E was doing fine on its own. But then Stranger Things came out of nowhere, COVID-19 came out of nowhere, Critical Role came out of nowhere. Things like OSR didn't hurt, either. COVID-19 was huge for D&D. Mainstream celebrities crawled out of the woodwork to tell the world it kept them sane. When is D&D ever again going to get a boost like that?

But shareholders are irrational lunatics, they won't accept reality, which is maybe why WotC was compelled to start that whole OGL and VTT fiascos. They're going to have to do crazy things to meet the new growth expectations, which is why I fear the worst -- this is how companies implode.

D&D 5E was already growing by double digits before Stranger Things or COVID. Besides, is ST really a great advertisement? Nerdy kids playing in their parent's basement is just reinforcing the trope that it's not for everyone. A lot of things contributed to 5E's ongoing success, and I don't expect a second boom. I just get tired of this repeated canard that the playtests and resulting rules, presentation, pace of supplements, basically everything WotC did had nothing to do with it.

Maybe there will be other external factors that help or hinder future sales, maybe not. For example I've seen indications of another surge of interest because of BG3. But if a lot of people didn't enjoy playing the game they wouldn't stick with it and the game could not sustain the levels we still see to this day.

 

[TiQuinn]

I just get tired of this repeated canard that the playtests and resulting rules, presentation, pace of supplements, basically everything WotC did had nothing to do with it.

That's a problem of WotC/Hasbro's own creation given they are not very upfront about their sales. If they wanted to break out D&D's sales, both in print and virtually, they certainly could, and then everyone can talk about the various impacts with a lot more knowledge rather than guessing in either direction.

 

[UngainlyTitan]

What would Wotc have to do to move the needle for the TTRPG revenue?
An actual new edition? Better adventures/AP's? More splat books?

None of these, to see real big bucks, games, movies, shows all of which are somewhat hit and miss. Takes a lot of capital and throw it as the wall and see what sticks. Not sure Hasbro has the skills or gumption for that. Licencing would be less risk but also lower return.
There is always the chance of something that we have not thought of.

I expect Hasbro/WoTC to get more into games and I am surprised that they have not tried harder in the boardgame market.
Lord of Waterdeep is a good game. Most of the others not so much, mostly because they took too long to play.

 

[Vael]

Hasbro has been shaking WotC upside-down for spare change for years, the spike in MTG content has become the new norm. The challenge is that outside of WotC, Hasbro is in trouble. Toys aren't selling as well.

This is why I tend to be softer towards WotC BS and scandal, name your issue. I view it partially as a response to that pressure from Hasbro. Not exclusively, clearly, capitalism gonna capitalism, but it's a context to be aware of.

 

[Sorcerers Apprentice]

If they phrase the question like this “Will sales of these new-edition rulebooks be enough to "move the needle" on a stock that has seen its revenues shrink for three straight years and that lost a staggering $1.5 billion just last year?” then the answer is an obvious no, the new books will not save all of Hasbro from whatever issues Hasbro is having.

The question is so silly, it did not really need asking, but since they did ask, they could have provided a much better answer for it than they actually did.

For gamers the question may sound silly, but stock market traders might think that if Hasbro is about to release a new version of a famous product, that should also bring in some significant income. So the Motley Fool article contains useful information for its target audience.

 

[FrogReaver]

D&d book sales will be Pennys on the dollar to hasboro. D&d the brand could have a lot more impact if 3d vtt is a smashing success or they have another baulders gate 3 video game style success (where they keep more profits). But then are risky bets. For all intents and purposes when it comes to investing actual money into hasbro one should probably view d&d new editions an unimportant blip despite its likely domination of the ttrpg market. At least that’s my take on what they are trying to say.