Several things...
1. Walmart and Target take time. Sometimes it takes one or two week (sometimes longer) for an item to get on the shelves. For example, video games sometimes get on the shelf the day of release, but I have seen it take several weeks at times for a video game to get on the shelf at these stores from the date of release.
2. It can take time at Barnes and Nobles depending on the Manager and other factors for a book to get on the shelf. An anecdotal experience is that I went to Barnes and Nobles to get the latest Stephen Donaldson's book that got released. They didn't have it. They figured it would be coming, but it had not gotten to their shelves yet.
3. Whether it is via online sales, beyond, or physical, all sales are doing well, and I believe that. It's a new release, the audience for it is far larger than what it was in 2014, and I think it's entirely plausible that sales are going very well right now (and in fact, hope it is).
4. What I DO have a problem with is the current PR because I have seen backlash behind the scenes from it, and that causes problems (and backlash from the fans) from decisions that arise from that. I've tried to point it out in the thread before with a LOT of people poo pooing it (and YES, I know that D&D doesn't bring in the money that some other items do for HAS, and THAT is where the problems come from. With the numbers reported, you better BELIEVE that there are investor [or more specifically, those appointed from investment groups] that are going to call for a way to make money off those numbers]
A. A few years ago, WotC made the claim that they had been 40 million D&D players or fans. The question was...how did they come up with this number? The estimate at the time was for around 3 million PHBs (and no beyond). How did they get this number from that !!!???
B. Well, we knew there had been the numbers of 25 million players of AD&D...or at least some had that number. If you took that number and subtracted it from 40 million that gave you 15 million players. Not a big deal...it would be easy to extrapolate at that point that they got 5 players per PHB sold...as an estimate.
C. Later, they claimed 50 million fans of the game. Once again...not that big a leap...and not that hard to digest. They also said, at that point, it was the largest selling and played version of D&D ever. If we assume that they took the original guess with 25 million AD&D/TSR players...then that means they had 25 million or MORE 5e players. This makes sense...right?
D. At this point, you get behind the scenes where a LOT of push is made to make more money off of this game. Afterall, if they are claiming 50 million (some will see that as the possible base to sell to...NOT the 25 million we thought) then that can mean some serious money. These are magic the gathering numbers (50 million+) and that makes gobs of money. The investors WANT to utilize this number and if they see numbers like this, they will want to know why D&D isn't making more money. There was (and still is) a push to monetize D&D.
Still, at an actual base of 25 million one might be able to push back and say...that 50 million isn't what is happening now.
E. So, a few days ago it springs up here that WotC has claimed 85 million fans of D&D. How did this number occur? Where did it come from?
I did a CONJECTURE of the old method where one PHB = 5 assumed players that was done a long time ago at the 40 million players. That would mean (as some saw, but assumed that I was SAYING it was fact, when in fact it was just trying to figure out how WotC got to this 85 million fans amount) that there would be 17 million+ PHBs sold. That would not just be physical, but by ANY means.
It could make sense that a LOT of this was from usage from D&D beyond's free rules and items and extrapolated from that.
That's using that conjecture. The truth is, I have no IDEA how they got this 85 million fans/players number. I DO see something else though.
Let's say that the original idea that the 40 million people had played D&D WAS correct in that they included the 25 million numbers from the TSR/AD&D days. That would mean that 15 million were playing then.
85 million - 25 million = 60 million NEW players...aka...5e players.
That's right...that's 60 million. There is NO going back to saying that it can't be competitive with MtG anymore. These are numbers that investors will WANT to exploit.
F. MtG makes buckets of money for Hasbro (I know there may be detractors that say I am wrong on this, and those who will poopoo me for saying this, but I'm going to stick with what I am saying here). It is no slouch in bringing in the greenbacks.
If WotC is claiming this number, that is HUGE (and I don't think people realize just how HUGE that is or what the ramifications could be).
As was noted as well by
@Zardnaar this is an investor problem. And I agreed. The problem is...investor problems don't always STAY investor problems. You have some powerful people who will take note of this and their thinking is a LOT more aggressive than what I have listed here (as I said, I see myself as actually one of the easier going people in relation to how I see numbers...there are those out there that are like predators when they see numbers that they don't feel are being utilized to it's maximum money making abilities...it's not a kind, nice world in the markets).
Eventually, just like you've seen with the OGL disaster a while back, and things that occurred with Beyond more recently...these people may not have the same ideas D&D fans do about what is best for D&D. Numbers like this (and it is all about the numbers) are what they live for and go for.
G. So, I know everyone is excited (and yes, I am too) about the new PHB release...but some of the statements being made from WotC (some President or VP looking for a promotion already???) actually make me worried about what's coming down the line next. Give it a year and there may be some pretty massive things coming that are going to infuriate a few people, because it's going to be more about HAS and less about the small time player.
Which is why the 85 million fans is what is more interesting to me than the statements about it being the fastest selling D&D book ever. I want to know how they got that number, because the ramifications of those people who are going to take it seriously, and have an impact on what happens with the books and games in the future are definitely looking at that number far more intently than anything else with that press release (and so am I to be honest).
