D&D 5E Dragon Age lead says Baldur’s Gate 3 and Clair Obscur prove publishers wrong as games can crush market trends is they’re “given time to cook”

[Zardnaar]

Wife liked Veilguard but said it was the weakest one. She had been playing BG3 and KotOR 1&2 recently for comparison.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

For me? Inquisition > Origins > Veilguard > Dragon Age 2 (never played)

DA2 is IMO the best written story of the franchise. The gameplay is more like Inquisition than it is like DA:O, which disappointed me the first time I played, but grew on me over time.

With cosmetic mods, it holds up surprisingly well to this day. in terms of mods it is not quite as open as Origins, but much more open than Inquisition was initially.

 

[Charlaquin]

I think part of what the article is saying is that a lot of publishers believe that the audience for a "tactical RPG" in limited. That in order to have mass appeal, you need to be a different kind of game. And given Capitalism's whole thing, mass appeal is ultimately what publishers NEED to have. So the data folks will show that historically tactical RPGs have sold around X or Y but that, say, ACTION RPGs have a much better and bigger potential based on some of the datapoints. And then you have a situation where you can't make a "tactical RPG" if you're working with a big, risk-averse publisher - you need to make the thing that will make the money, and if that's a live service action RPG or whatever, then that's what you will make, because CREAM.

And BG3 and Clair Obscur serve as counterpoints to that, because they are very very popular games in supposedly "niche" gameplay genres. And y'know, once is a fluke, but twice is a pattern!

This problem crops up time and again across a lot of creative industries because the people who make funding decisions aren't as good at data analysis as most of them think they are, and the investors are ultimately the real customers.
Which isn't to say there's no truth in the pull toward mass appeal. Clair Obscur isn't Lisa or even Pathologic. It's got a LOT of mass appeal potential. D&D 5e is probably more targeted at mass appeal than 3e and 4e were, and it was probably a good decision given how successful the edition's been. There's just something to be said for not sacrificing identity on the altar of appeal. (D&D forgets this sometimes, too, ie: 2024 Command vs. 2014 Command)

Also, when you're analyzing market data to identify what could be the most profitable choices to make, it's probably good to remember that the data is inherently backward-looking. It tells you what has been the case so far, in the past. Times change, trends wax and wane, and if you only ever chase what looks like a "safe" investment, you're going to be caught with your pants down when the audience shifts. There's not a formula for catching lightning in a bottle.

Absolutely. The fact that publishers don’t seem to understand (or maybe don’t want to accept) is that you can’t analyze your way into a successful video game. There is some value in looking at trends and what has performed well or poorly, but there’s no formula that can guarantee a hit, and a major factor in a game’s success that publishers under-value is word of mouth. A game with niche appeal can break out of its niche if it appeals to its niche strongly enough that they recommend it to others who might not normally be looking at games within the niche. And if the quality is there, many of those who try it will stick around, which might even end up expanding the niche.

It’s not a surefire thing though, which makes it hard for huge, risk-averse publishers to want to try it.

One of the things that Veilguard's development shows is that chasing trends can very much be a losing battle.

Especially when the market for the trend you’re chasing is already saturated to the point of audience fatigue!

Anyway, like Sonic says

YES!!!

 

[Zardnaar]

Absolutely. The fact that publishers don’t seem to understand (or maybe don’t want to accept) is that you can’t analyze your way into a successful video game. There is some value in looking at trends and what has performed well or poorly, but there’s no formula that can guarantee a hit, and a major factor in a game’s success that publishers under-value is word of mouth. A game with niche appeal can break out of its niche if it appeals to its niche strongly enough that they recommend it to others who might not normally be looking at games within the niche. And if the quality is there, many of those who try it will stick around, which might even end up expanding the niche.

It’s not a surefire thing though, which makes it hard for huge, risk-averse publishers to want to try it.

Especially when the market for the trend you’re chasing is already saturated to the point of audience fatigue!

YES!!!

Worse graphics would theoretically mean cheaper games and faster turn around time.

Graphic kinda peaked almost 2016 and games from 2012 can still look good.

Assassins Creed Odyssey still looks great from 2018. Uncharted IV 2016 iirc. GTAV another one

It's why games have microtransactions.

 

[Burnside]

Incidentally, if I don’t generally like JRPGs, will I enjoy Clair Obscur? I know it’s a French game, but it seems JRPG-esque. My main objection to JRPGs is the player’s general lack of meaningful choices/agency/ability to affect the story.

 

[Sorcerers Apprentice]

Incorrect

Agreed. The first DA game isn't good either

 

[Charlaquin]

Worse feaphic woukd theoretically mean cheaper fanes and faster turn around time.

Graphic kinda peaked almost 2016 and games from 2012 can still look good.

Assassins Creed Odyssey still looks great from 2018. Uncharted IV 2016 iirc. GTAV another one

It's why games have microtransactions.

Yeah, graphical fidelity is my lowest priority when it comes to what sells me on a game. Nice to have, but never going to be the factor that makes or breaks a sale for me, and I think a lot of players would agree. Unfortunately, it happens to be a factor that is easiest not draw a correlation with to sales numbers, so it tends to be one of the highest priorities for developers.

 

[Charlaquin]

Agreed. The first DA game isn't good either

Well, no accounting for taste I suppose

 

[Zardnaar]

Yeah, graphical fidelity is my lowest priority when it comes to what sells me on a game. Nice to have, but never going to be the factor that makes or breaks a sale for me, and I think a lot of players would agree. Unfortunately, it happens to be a factor that is easiest not draw a correlation with to sales numbers, so it tends to be one of the highest priorities for developers.

Yup. Graphics don't matter to much. I still play retro games. You can also have good looking neo retro games as well.

 

[Burnside]

Wife liked Veilguard but said it was the weakest one. She had been playing BG3 and KotOR 1&2 recently for comparison.

Whatever you play right after BG3 is gonna seem kinda bad imo.