Transformers One 2024

[Zardnaar]

Sure. Obviously.

Yeah movies right now are a complete crap shoot. Big franchises crash and burn, quality is no guarantee of success and A24 with the Rock on a moderately priced movie just took a dunking.

Generally you have no idea until a month or three before release except the big obvious clunkers.

I have great faith that new Masters of the Universe film will do gangbusters next year!!! Anythings possible right?

Transformers One was good as well its a shame when that happens.

 

[jian]

It does seem that it’s very hard to predict what will do well at the box office (whatever the heck that actually means these days - the accounting always seems extremely opaque). There’s been a string of would-be blockbusters with reliable properties or stars not doing well in the last year or two.

The most successful films internationally so far this year seem to be:

1. Ne Zha 2 (did anyone outside China see the first film or know the original myth?)
2. Lilo & Stitch (live-action)
3. Minecraft
4. Jurassic World Rebirth
5. Demon Slayer Infinity Castle
6. How to Train Your Dragon (live-action)
7. F1: The Movie
8. Superman
9. Mission Impossible: The Last One, We Promise
10. Fantastic Four

So I only saw two of those (8 and 10). The reviews and trailers for most of the rest were execrable*. If they’re the future of filmmaking I think I’ll just go back to watching old movies on free streamers.

*Nothing against 1 and 5, with which I have no beef.

 

[Zardnaar]

It does seem that it’s very hard to predict what will do well at the box office (whatever the heck that actually means these days - the accounting always seems extremely opaque). There’s been a string of would-be blockbusters with reliable properties or stars not doing well in the last year or two.

The most successful films internationally so far this year seem to be:

1. Ne Zha 2 (did anyone outside China see the first film or know the original myth?)
2. Lilo & Stitch (live-action)
3. Minecraft
4. Jurassic World Rebirth
5. Demon Slayer Infinity Castle
6. How to Train Your Dragon (live-action)
7. F1: The Movie
8. Superman
9. Mission Impossible: The Last One, We Promise
10. Fantastic Four

So I only saw two of those (8 and 10). The reviews and trailers for most of the rest were execrable*. If they’re the future of filmmaking I think I’ll just go back to watching old movies on free streamers.

*Nothing against 1 and 5, with which I have no beef.

Accounting on the back ends always opaque but box office results are divorced from the studios.

The non chud reliable sources report what the studios tell them. Variety, Deadline, Hollywood reporter. Forbes isnt to bad. Movies filmed outside the USA often gave to report stuff though. We may have had our first billion dollar flop.

Biggest source of income outside the box office has dried up (VHS, DVDs).

 

[Jahydin]

Its not a faith thing. Its audience not enough people paid to see it. Same problem as D&D movie.

Understand. My bet is that if they stuck with their original plans they would slowly grow an audience sizeable enough to be profitable.

Cinema is expensive ($16.50 per ticket, $20 for drink & popcorn where I live). It takes a lot of convincing to get me into a theater seat! One way of doing that is building momentum. Sure Transformers didn't do too hot at first (crazy $129 million isn't successful), but there's a lot of friction involved thanks to franchise fatigue, "Disney humor" fatigue, and uncertainty on what age demographic it was for. The trailer would be the place to address all of this, but it instead it did the opposite (and wow, the spoilers), and worked to create even more friction.

I think now enough people have seen it and no longer have those concerns a sequel would be a much easier sell.

It makes me wonder if maybe we have the theatre model backwards. First limited streaming (with discount) -> theatrical release if popular enough (more expensive to stream now) -> physical release with extra goodies.

 

[Zardnaar]

Understand. My bet is that if they stuck with their original plans they would slowly grow an audience sizeable enough to be profitable.

Cinema is expensive ($16.50 per ticket, $20 for drink & popcorn where I live). It takes a lot of convincing to get me into a theater seat! One way of doing that is building momentum. Sure Transformers didn't do too hot at first (crazy $129 million isn't successful), but there's a lot of friction involved thanks to franchise fatigue, "Disney humor" fatigue, and uncertainty on what age demographic it was for. The trailer would be the place to address all of this, but it instead it did the opposite (and wow, the spoilers), and worked to create even more friction.

I think now enough people have seen it and no longer have those concerns a sequel would be a much easier sell.

It makes me wonder if maybe we have the theatre model backwards. First limited streaming (with discount) -> theatrical release if popular enough (more expensive to stream now) -> physical release with extra goodies.

Evidence suggest theatrical release then streaming is best way to maximize eyeballs it seems.

Streaming doesn't pay the bills unless the streamer commissions it essentially.

When youre spending 400 million and 100-200 million on marketing and get 49% of the BO well yeah.

Even 200 million+marketing sees iffy now.

Similar problems to video games. Consumers expect XYZ but aren't willing or unable to pay for it.