D&D General The $150,000 Question: How TSR Learned It Was Dying (And Why I Was in the Room) by Ken "Whit" Whitman

[Sacrosanct]

A guy who worked for Gen Con for a few months isn’t going to add anything to that.

But how else am I supposed to meet TSR alum like Rose Estes and Larry Elmore??!!!!

Oh yeah, I could just message them and hang out with them for an afternoon like I've done before...

Seriously. I'm not special. Most of these people are really nice people and you could just ask them directly any questions you have. They won't charge $5K to show up like Ken infers, and you don't need to spend $100 for Ken to reach out them for you. He would literally just do the same thing you'd do on FB messenger or something.

*I know that price is to get them to come to your convention, but again, just ask them yourself. Ken adds no value here.

 

[Lanefan]

Also, retaining them as players for 20 years after they bought the core books does not help you one bit, you need to keep them as repeat customers.

They're repeat customers every time they buy an adventure module.

That's where early TSR blundered into getting it right and later TSR blew it: the repeat business doesn't come from ongoing sales of core books but from adventure modules. Early TSR churned out a bunch of 'em and did OK, later (as in, 2e era) TSR dialled back on modules in favour of settings, box sets, and splatbooks and look where that got 'em.

 

[Lakesidefantasy]

Whatever things that Whit Whitman may have done, doesn't make his TSR observations incorrect.

Especially the observation about the '7 year pipe'. Since WOTC bought TSR:
3.0 - 3 years
3.5 - 5 years
4 - 6 years
5(2014) - 10 years
5(2024) - 1 year and counting.

Seems that WOTC is paying attention to the pipeline length and refreshing the game before folks reach the end and walk away. Generally much easier to keep an existing customer then win one back that has left the fold. Probably one of the reasons for the 10 year run of 5e2014 was the continuing release of online stuff for the WOTC VTT product line at a time when on line play is what a lot of folks wanted.

Hmm, smells like someone put poison in the well.

 

[mamba]

They're repeat customers every time they buy an adventure module.

they would be, but there are plenty tables that do not play published adventures

That's where early TSR blundered into getting it right and later TSR blew it: the repeat business doesn't come from ongoing sales of core books but from adventure modules. Early TSR churned out a bunch of 'em and did OK, later (as in, 2e era) TSR dialled back on modules in favour of settings, box sets, and splatbooks and look where that got 'em.

I am not sure whether setting and splat sell worse than adventures. What got TSR is selling a lot of stuff below cost and producing a lot more units than they managed to sell. For a while they managed to be paid for them and have them in the book distribution channel, allowing TSR to ignore their failed approach, but eventually the unsold units were returned and there was no way to refund for them.

Also, adventures barely pay for themselves, that is why we got the OGL in the first place. You cannot survive on 10% of your PHB buyers buying one adventure a year.

As long as your core sales look like this, you will fail

 

[Zardnaar]

But how else am I supposed to meet TSR alum like Rose Estes and Larry Elmore??!!!!

Oh yeah, I could just message them and hang out with them for an afternoon like I've done before...

Seriously. I'm not special. Most of these people are really nice people and you could just ask them directly any questions you have. They won't charge $5K to show up like Ken infers, and you don't need to spend $100 for Ken to reach out them for you. He would literally just do the same thing you'd do on FB messenger or something.

*I know that price is to get them to come to your convention, but again, just ask them yourself. Ken adds no value here.

Im in Facebook groups with TSR Alumni lol.

 

[Deset Gled]

Whatever things that Whit Whitman may have done, doesn't make his TSR observations incorrect.

Especially the observation about the '7 year pipe'. Since WOTC bought TSR:
3.0 - 3 years
3.5 - 5 years
4 - 6 years
5(2014) - 10 years
5(2024) - 1 year and counting.

Seems that WOTC is paying attention to the pipeline length and refreshing the game before folks reach the end and walk away. Generally much easier to keep an existing customer then win one back that has left the fold. Probably one of the reasons for the 10 year run of 5e2014 was the continuing release of online stuff for the WOTC VTT product line at a time when on line play is what a lot of folks wanted.

By your own argument, he got it wrong. Ken didn't come up with the 7 year pipeline; that's information fed to him that he regurgitated. His observation was/is:

"Because if your entire business model depends on:
Capturing new players
Flooding them with so much product they can't afford competitors
Losing them after 7 years
Then finding NEW players to replace them
...you're not building a sustainable business.
You're building a treadmill.
And eventually, you run out of new players.
..
You win by keeping players for LIFE."

You don't win by keeping players for life. You win by capturing new players. Keeping the market fresh. Finding recurring income. Building the treadmill and keeping it running. Exactly what Ken says won't work.

Ken was wrong then and lying now. His scam business is built on a treadmill of new marks.

 

[Mistwell]

I am not trusting Ken Whitman on anything.

 

[Sacrosanct]

Im in Facebook groups with TSR Alumni lol.

For real. In this digital age when most of them are on FB, it's really easy to get ahold of them. You don't need phone #s like in the old days. Every person who has run a convention up to this point has been able to do so and get guests. Ken is wanting a steep fee for...what value, exactly?

 

[Zardnaar]

For real. In this digital age when most of them are on FB, it's really easy to get ahold of them. You don't need phone #s like in the old days. Every person who has run a convention up to this point has been able to do so and get guests. Ken is wanting a steep fee for...what value, exactly?

I have no idea who he is or how his thing is set up.

If youre determined you can probably get hold of the active ones.

 

[Lanefan]

they would be, but there are plenty tables that do not play published adventures

I suspect more would, at least some of the time, were the published adventures short self-contained modules rather than hardcover adventure paths or compilations.

As long as your core sales look like this, you will fail

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All that says is that you need to plan your sustainable business model based on those long-tail numbers rather than on short unsustainable sales bursts.