The "how many monsters of type X in a row you can kill" is just a measurement stick.Interesting. The 46% weaker stat doesn’t look right though. You probably need an average of the penalties for comparison not a multiplication of them. As a character with 1 less bonus clearly isn’t 46% weaker even if that affect multiple elements.
How many guards you can kill probably isn’t an appropriate metric for power in a Ravenloft game. It is hard to quantify but I would imagine mobility, the ability to deflect damage, and the ability to fight defensively and still fight would be extremely useful in that kind of game.
All that is worth bearing in mind though. Any monk player would just have to go into that with eyes open and balance the AC and Damage issue against the generalist benefits and freedoms of being a monk. Particularly in Ravenloft which is likely to be quite a carefully curated world.
Thanks for the thoughtful insight though. I’m just not convinced that the negative outweighs the many benefits of doing in that setting.
Being able to deliver a package is powerful, but how powerful scales with the package payload.
And multiplication is what happens when you weaken a character. This is one of the reasons why the -1 to all attributes is deceptively strong in how much it weakens a character, and why "boring +1" weapons are so strong.
The guard is just a placeholder monster. While a different monster would give different results, any modest change results in only a modest change in conclusions. I use the guard because it is a concrete monster, weak enough that you can measure how many you kill instead of having to deal with fractions of monsters etc.
My L 4 monk model will use a non-magical quarterstaff in 2 hands. The attack routine thus becomes 1d8+Dex, then 1d6+Dex for unarmed, then an extra 1d6+Dex on a flurry. 17 Dex, 14 Wis, 14 Con attributes gives them 15 AC, +5 ATK and 31 HP (8+5+5+5+2*4). They get no healing in their first fight after a rest.
The (congo line of) Guard's relevant stats are +3 to hit, 1d6+1 damage, 16 AC, 11 HP.
We can give the Monk the ability to "cleave" damage to simplify it. So they deal (1d8+1d6+6).5 + (1d8+1d6).05 (7.4) at will damage per round, plus 3.4 per Ki spent (which they have 3). The guards hit 45% crit 5% for 2.2 damage per round; the monk drops after 31/2.2 = 14.1 rounds, during which time the monk deals 10.2 + 7.4*14.1 = 114.54 damage, enough to kill 10.4 guards.
(While in practice some of the monk's damage will blow-through, the guard is just a stand-in for monsters which have a variety of HP, and we'll measure both before and after monk permitting cleave, so that is roughly equal.)
We then take the weakened monk. Its AC falls to 13, +4 to hit, 27 HP, damage is 1d8+2 and 1d6+2 instead.
The guard now hits 55% crits 5% for 2.65 damage per round (20% more), the congo-line kills the monk in 10.9 rounds instead of 14.1.
The monk hits 45% of the time and crits 5% of the time for 3.15 QS and 2.65 Fist (5.8 DPR base, plus 2.65 per flurry). With 3 flurries that is 7.95 + 5.8*10.9 = 71.17 damage before falling, killing 6.47 guards.
6.47 / 10.4 is 62% effectiveness compared to before.
(This is less weak because I upgraded the before/after to a quarterstaff, and then some variation from using a concrete monster.)
We do the same with the fighter. The fighter has 18 AC before and after, has GW feat and style. Attacks deal 2d6+5 damage (with GWStyle this is 13.33 per swing, +8.33 per crit). +5 to hit, 36 HP, 9.5 second wind. We will neglect using the bonus action extra attack from dropping foes and critting in both calculations.
The guard hits 30% and crits 5% of the time for 1.525 damage per round, dropping the fighter in 29.8 rounds.
The fighter hits 50% and crits 5% of the time for 7.08 damage at-will, plus 7.08 from action surge. Over 29.8 rounds it deals 218.06 damage, killing 19.8 guards.
Drop the fighter's strength and con by 2 points each and they deal 2d6+4 at +4 to hit, and has 32 + 9.5 HP. They now kill the fighter in 27.2 rounds and the fighter hits 45% crits 5% for 5.97 damage per round/action surge. This means 168.35 damage before dropping, or 15.3 guards.
15.3/19.8 is 77% as effective compared to before (at fighting congo lines of guards).
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Note that in this kind of model, swarms of guards have triangular growth impact on difficulty; 5 guards at once is roughly 15x as tough as 1, while 5 in a congo line (fighting one at a time) is 5x as tough as one. But that effect is the same with or without the weakened PC.
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Modelling different monsters will show different effectiveness drops. But the monk will end up being weakened 1.5x to 2x as much as the heavy weapon fighter is by this kind of change. Dex-based defenders get weakened more than the heavy fighter, but less than the monk, as their AC falls whlie the heavy fighter's AC is unchanged by this reduction in stats. Spellcasters lose prepared spells, but their damage rarely adds their attribute; they'll usually be weakened less in this naive model. (Warlocks, with AB, are the exception). -1 to save DCs and -1 to ATK are roughly equivalent in effect, so that is a wash.
The Paladin's level 6 feature (adding cha to saves) becomes weaker. Their reliance on smites helps make up for this (as smites mean more of the Paladin's damage is not a function of hitting reliably or attribute bonus damage).
I used Monk and Heavy Weapon Fighter as my examples because my naive, back of napkin math has them at two extremes while both being relatively simple melee types.
This is not intended to compare the two of them directly; so the number of guards one drops vs the other isn't intended to be a fair comparison. The comparison is between each before and after, so we understand the magnitude of the changes within the class. A monk that can close and deal damage still needs to survive and hurt the target, so if they are half as tough and deal half the damage, closing efficiently doesn't matter as much. And if they are so fragile they have to switch to defensive dodge mode quicker, that also makes them less useful to the party. But when comparing monks to fighters directly, those options that the fighter lacks do boost the monk compared to the fighter; they just don't boost the monk compared to the monk, so I feel confident in ignore them in monk:monk comparisons.
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