Adventure:-- LPNN (Manzanita Judging)

(OOC:
[SBLOCK]
The criticals don't add as much as it might initially seem due to low probability. Let's continue to consider the edge case of 14 strength d6 weapon with 19-20/x2 that hits on a 15 (lower strength and the arrow is always better, higher dice and the weapon is) vs two-handing the silver arrow that hits on a 19 (note that Juliana's flail only crits on a 20, so this is actually being overly optimistic for the d6 weapon). Here is the exact honest-to-goodness expected value, including criticals, as best as I can do based on my 6.041 class (MIT's Probability Course).

Two-handed d6 weapon with 19-20/x2: E[Damage from 18 or below] = 4/20 * 10 / 6 = .3333 damage per round, E[Damage from 19 and 20] = 1 / 10 * 6 / 20 * 8 + 1 / 10 * 14 / 20 * 10 / 6 = .24 + .11666666666 Total Expected Value =.69

Two-handed d6 weapon with 20/x2: .41666666 + .12 + .0583333333 = .5949999

Silvery arrow: E[Damage] = 1/10 * 9/10 * 5.5 + 1/10 * 1/10 * 11 = .605

So...the arrow beats a d6 /x2 and loses to a d6 19-20/x2 weapon with a couple of important observations:

#1: A huge amount of the average damage comes from criticals considering how infrequent they are. This should be pretty upsetting, as it indicates that without crits, expected damage is pretty dismal.

#2: Expected damage is really awful even with crits. Based on that expected damage, loss was pretty much assured--and we did worse than the expected damage too thanks to IC's hatred To see just how bad our expected damage is, compare it to the wererats' expected damage and they should be mowing through us unopposed exactly as they are.

#3: It is very close here, and with the scarcity in difference (.1 per round at most), it isn't worth the action to switch weapons between any of these three)
[/SBLOCK]

Razh dumps that potion down Z's throat. (Full-round action, I believe) Then he takes a step towards Stinker, ready to take up his waraxe in both hands.

OOC: Are the red lines on the map the axes? If so... uh oh, because I think Stinker will move in and block Razh again.

(OOC: Hmm...potion is use-activated so if he already had it in hand, its onyl a standard action By the way--thanks! Zaeryl owes you his life and Hallidor owes you and Almayce a huge amount of money--you've expended more than what he offered to pay us in consumables just to stay alive )

Rystil Arden said:

(By the way--thanks! Zaeryl owes you his life and Hallidor owes you and Almayce a huge amount of money--you've expended more than what he offered to pay us in consumables just to stay alive )

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OOC: Though Hallidor just topped that by gulping that 300gp potion down Almayce's throat. Almayce is only 180 gp down.

(OOC: Oh, you're right, it was also a Cure Moderate Wounds potion )

Juliana. 5/11 HP 18 AC

Juliana, disgusted with her inability to hit, pulls back (withdraw action, provoking no AoO for the first 5 feet, but is a full round action) to where she droped her flail.

Next round, she will pick it up (droping the arrow), and either close within 10 feet of LT (if this takes a 5 foot step, she will go total defense at +4 to her AC, bringing it to a 22), or take a 5 foot step and attack (+2 to hit, 1d8+2 dmg, 20x2 crit)

OOC: The -4 is killing me on the to hit. The trip idea was nice, but it works better when others can beat on him too. I might try a trip again after that attack, but we'll see.

Round 11

I6: Juliana does something (pending, likely an attack?). OK. Got it. “Juliana, disgusted with her inability to hit, pulls back (withdraw action, provoking no AoO for the first 5 feet, but is a full round action) to where she droped her flail.

Next round, she will pick it up (droping the arrow), and either close within 10 feet of LT (if this takes a 5 foot step, she will go total defense at +4 to her AC, bringing it to a 22), or take a 5 foot step and attack (+2 to hit, 1d8+2 dmg, 20x2 crit)

OOC: The -4 is killing me on the to hit. The trip idea was nice, but it works better when others can beat on him too. I might try a trip again after that attack, but we'll see.”

OK Juliana moves back to her flail, which is in the square she’s now standing in.

I6: Almayce heals Hallidor a truly pitiful amount (IC does hate healing!) and moves towards Raz a step after getting up.

I1: Huln takes a 5’ step, nearly off the map, and attacks LongTooth, rolling a “1” and completely whiffs. LongTooth laughs at the feeble pup.

Round11

LongTooth 20
Hallidor 20
Slinker 17
Ogrin 16
Stinker 14
Raz 13
Zaeryl 13
Juliana 6
Almayce 6
Vargo & Wolf 1


I20: LongTooth, seeing Juliana flee, decides to spank the dog. Not the monkey. Rolls a “18” and whacks Huln but good. Does 7 points of damage; Huln whimpers.

I20: Hallidor, grappling Slinker, realizes that the WereRat is quite bloody at this point; he has been bleeding since he was bat-bit back in round5. While still quite dangerous, Hallidor is under the impression that, if he can just keep a hold of Slinker, and continue to squeeze him, Slinker will slowly but surely bleed to death. Surely a positive event. As such, Hallidor attempts to “pin” Slinker. This is an opposed grapple check, Hallidor gets a “8” and Slinker gets a “7”. Strong Hallidor successfully pins agile but not that agile Slinker, meaning that Slinker can’t attack Hallidor; rather, must try to break the pin.

I17: Slinker, for the first time sensing that there might be some real danger involved in the conflict, attempts to squirm free. He rolls a “3” and Hallidor rolls a “14’. Not even close; Slinker is still securely pinned.

I16: Ogrin fails to bleed.

I14: Stinker. Stinker, seeing Raz hovering over Z, moves 10’ and attacks with his Rapier. “10” is a clear miss.

I13: Raz pours the potion down Z’s throat, stopping the bleeding and healing 6. Raz has to move back to where his axe is dropped, which is the blue cross square (the red stuff are torches). How do you wanna proceed, given that Stinker is right in your face? You have a move action available.

I will rule that if you want to you can "squeeze" around Stinker around the rocks above Stinker, but lose your Dex to AC while doing so, and of course provoking an AOO from El Stinkeroo for the movement. That way you can at least get in the square your weapon is located in.

How bad is Vargo? Juliana may attempt to stabilize him if he looks realy (-5 or worse) bad instead of running to attack. Especialy if LT has given her this much space.

Otherwise, Juliana will instead change targets and help Halidor with Slinker, attacking him using her flail two handed (+2 to hit, 1d8+3 damage, 20x2 crit)and letting her shield slump (AC 16). Slinker is flat footed to me since his is in a grapple, and with a melee attack I can chose either opponent to hit.

Bront said:

How bad is Vargo? Juliana may attempt to stabilize him if he looks realy (-5 or worse) bad instead of running to attack. Especialy if LT has given her this much space.

Otherwise, Juliana will instead change targets and help Halidor with Slinker, attacking him using her flail two handed (+2 to hit, 1d8+3 damage, 20x2 crit)and letting her shield slump (AC 16). Slinker is flat footed to me since his is in a grapple, and with a melee attack I can chose either opponent to hit.

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Vargo is only at -3 or so as far as I can tell. He took 8 points of damage in round 8 and has bled 3 rounds, so is at -4. He hasn't stabilized naturally yet.

Almayce, 1 / 10 HP

If Rasereit is still close, Almayce will heal him with his wand of CLW. If he goes to get his axe, Almayce will move to heal Juliana instead (what's her status btw?). Whoever he heals, he heals him/her 5 points.

OOC: The roll in IC has a wrong name, but oh well.