4.33 Years in: What Now for 5E? (and have we reached "Peak Edition?")
Parmandur
Book-Friend
Hard is not impossible, and anything worth doing is worth doing poorly.
Parmandur
Book-Friend
We already know that a setting book is in line for next year: it certainly seems to be their plan to give it a shot.
From what I can tell, D&D is going strong, so there's no reason to change course. I don't think Pathfinder 2E will be going after the same market, so it's not much of a threat.
That said, I don't think the release of a reprinted collectors Gift Set is any indication that they won't be printing a new edition. In fact, it's kind of a cash grab when the company can't think of better things to release, so it's more indicative of a new edition looming on the horizon (based on how things have been going since 2nd edition).
I have a hard time saying that this is the peak year of 5E. It's hard to tell with the slower pace of releases this edition. In any other edition, it would feel like it's slowing down.
That said, I don't think the release of a reprinted collectors Gift Set is any indication that they won't be printing a new edition. In fact, it's kind of a cash grab when the company can't think of better things to release, so it's more indicative of a new edition looming on the horizon (based on how things have been going since 2nd edition).
I have a hard time saying that this is the peak year of 5E. It's hard to tell with the slower pace of releases this edition. In any other edition, it would feel like it's slowing down.
I estimate that "peak 5E" will arrive 2-4 years from now. That's going off my own, highly subjective measure of "peak," not off of sales numbers--I wouldn't venture to try and predict that.
In each edition, things start out with a straightforward core. They work off that for a while, cranking out all the old standbys under the new ruleset, and not really pushing the boundaries much. Then they begin to experiment, cautiously at first, and then more boldly as they gain confidence. It's right around this point--the bold experimental material--that I feel the edition is at its peak, the best and most exciting time (well, apart from the day the edition is originally released). Eventually, however, "bold" turns into "random wackiness" and things head downhill. Right around then is when a new edition gets announced.
So, where are we in 5E? I'd say we are at the "beginning to experiment" stage. Given the slower release schedule of this edition, we can reasonably hope to stay on the upswing for a couple years yet.
In each edition, things start out with a straightforward core. They work off that for a while, cranking out all the old standbys under the new ruleset, and not really pushing the boundaries much. Then they begin to experiment, cautiously at first, and then more boldly as they gain confidence. It's right around this point--the bold experimental material--that I feel the edition is at its peak, the best and most exciting time (well, apart from the day the edition is originally released). Eventually, however, "bold" turns into "random wackiness" and things head downhill. Right around then is when a new edition gets announced.
So, where are we in 5E? I'd say we are at the "beginning to experiment" stage. Given the slower release schedule of this edition, we can reasonably hope to stay on the upswing for a couple years yet.
Jester David
Hero
Sure. I can see them doing a couple, with a classic setting in addition to Ravnica. Especially a different one like Dark Sun that has a lot of monsters. But I can't see a third hardcover setting released in 2020.
Mercurius
Legend
I liked this and think you could be right. Ravnica definitely supports the idea of experimentation as it is not only the first new setting in over a decade (either Nentir in 2007 or Eberron in 2004), but also rather exotic as far as settings go. It is also an overt experimentation on whether Magic and D&D can be integrated, and to what degree of (creative and financial) success.
Hussar
Legend
I'm just starting a new campaign with Dragon Heist.
Now, for a bit of background, this is the first official D&D adventure path I've run since... errr... Savage Tides back in the tail end of 3e. Wow, it's been that long. And, something that REALLY slapped me in the face is how different things look now than then.
WotC's AP's aren't really just AP's anymore. They are a core book for an entire line. Looking at DM's Guild, there are more than a dozen supplements, all high quality, professional stuff, just for a 5 level module. O.O Dragon Heist has been out for what, six months? Thereabouts. And we already have enough material there that I could, if I wanted to, stretch that single module to a pretty lengthy campaign.
This is, IME, unprecedented. The modules, whether AP's or not, in the past were all fire and forget. You bought Return to the Temple of Elemental Evil, maybe picked up a web enhancement and that was it. There wasn't a long tail of products that you could buy for a given module.
It's a really different market. Each module now has this tail - extra modules, figures, maps packs, whatever - of products that keep that module floating. While it's remarkable how well the core books are selling, what really, really blows me away is things like, say, Rise of Tiamat - a module that wasn't exactly a rousing success as far as gamers were concerned- is STILL 5000 (ish) of all books on Amazon.
Think about that for a moment. A four year old MODULE is selling that well. That's unheard of. Four years after a module is released into the wild, the normal life cycle would be recycle bins at gaming stores. And that's the WORST WotC offering as far as Amazon rank goes. Good grief, Hoard of the Dragon Queen is just shy of breaking the top 1000.
The new market for WotC is a very different place. Each product that WotC bangs out isn't a stand alone thing. Each one is an entire line unto itself that feeds into the main line. I mean, think about it. How many supplements were there for any module previously? Modules with their own miniatures? You might have gotten some fiction books, I suppose, but, even then, that was pretty rare outside of Dragonlance. It's not like the Forgotten Realms novels followed modules.
But, all of this creates such a unique position for WotC and its products. You're not going to see a "Complete" line anymore where each book is largely fire and forget with a six month sales window and then fading into obscurity. No, what we're going to see is things like Ravnica where you have WotC bringing out the main product and then everyone else feeding into that main product.
It's a really interesting way to combat fragmentation of the fanbase. If the 3pp are directly latching onto WotC products the way they are, it keeps everyone much closer together and allows a LOT more cross pollination.
Now, for a bit of background, this is the first official D&D adventure path I've run since... errr... Savage Tides back in the tail end of 3e. Wow, it's been that long. And, something that REALLY slapped me in the face is how different things look now than then.
WotC's AP's aren't really just AP's anymore. They are a core book for an entire line. Looking at DM's Guild, there are more than a dozen supplements, all high quality, professional stuff, just for a 5 level module. O.O Dragon Heist has been out for what, six months? Thereabouts. And we already have enough material there that I could, if I wanted to, stretch that single module to a pretty lengthy campaign.
This is, IME, unprecedented. The modules, whether AP's or not, in the past were all fire and forget. You bought Return to the Temple of Elemental Evil, maybe picked up a web enhancement and that was it. There wasn't a long tail of products that you could buy for a given module.
It's a really different market. Each module now has this tail - extra modules, figures, maps packs, whatever - of products that keep that module floating. While it's remarkable how well the core books are selling, what really, really blows me away is things like, say, Rise of Tiamat - a module that wasn't exactly a rousing success as far as gamers were concerned- is STILL 5000 (ish) of all books on Amazon.
Think about that for a moment. A four year old MODULE is selling that well. That's unheard of. Four years after a module is released into the wild, the normal life cycle would be recycle bins at gaming stores. And that's the WORST WotC offering as far as Amazon rank goes. Good grief, Hoard of the Dragon Queen is just shy of breaking the top 1000.
The new market for WotC is a very different place. Each product that WotC bangs out isn't a stand alone thing. Each one is an entire line unto itself that feeds into the main line. I mean, think about it. How many supplements were there for any module previously? Modules with their own miniatures? You might have gotten some fiction books, I suppose, but, even then, that was pretty rare outside of Dragonlance. It's not like the Forgotten Realms novels followed modules.
But, all of this creates such a unique position for WotC and its products. You're not going to see a "Complete" line anymore where each book is largely fire and forget with a six month sales window and then fading into obscurity. No, what we're going to see is things like Ravnica where you have WotC bringing out the main product and then everyone else feeding into that main product.
It's a really interesting way to combat fragmentation of the fanbase. If the 3pp are directly latching onto WotC products the way they are, it keeps everyone much closer together and allows a LOT more cross pollination.
Hussar
Legend
Sorry, that last post got away from me a bit, but, I just have one more thought.
Something to think about with the 3e/3.5 era is that 4.33 years into that, we had what, a dozen or more 3pp publishers banging out d20 games that directly competed with D&D. Mutants and Masterminds, Blue Rose, and so on. The 3pp weren't working with WotC, particularly, because everyone was burying their OGC behind the OGL. Sure, you could share monsters, but, I couldn't produce a work based on your OGL setting because all the proper nouns weren't Open Gaming Content.
So, we have the rise and fall of the d20 glut, with dozens of d20 games coming out as everyone tried to make their own independent line that wasn't directly related to anything WotC was doing.
This time around though, WotC is very much working directly with 3pp's to keep everyone in the same umbrella. DM's Guild encourages you to make supplements for whatever the latest AP is. After all, you can tie your supplement directly to that AP and that helps sales. Which in turn helps WotC sales. It's a really interesting loop.
Something to think about with the 3e/3.5 era is that 4.33 years into that, we had what, a dozen or more 3pp publishers banging out d20 games that directly competed with D&D. Mutants and Masterminds, Blue Rose, and so on. The 3pp weren't working with WotC, particularly, because everyone was burying their OGC behind the OGL. Sure, you could share monsters, but, I couldn't produce a work based on your OGL setting because all the proper nouns weren't Open Gaming Content.
So, we have the rise and fall of the d20 glut, with dozens of d20 games coming out as everyone tried to make their own independent line that wasn't directly related to anything WotC was doing.
This time around though, WotC is very much working directly with 3pp's to keep everyone in the same umbrella. DM's Guild encourages you to make supplements for whatever the latest AP is. After all, you can tie your supplement directly to that AP and that helps sales. Which in turn helps WotC sales. It's a really interesting loop.
This is different than Essentials though. (Responding to Exploder Wizard's point)
D&D 5e is what the game will be from now on. It's what WotC want (the Catan example above). Just like there won't be a Catan 2e, there won't be a D&D 6e.
There's no money in doing so. Previously, under different models of the game and target audience, sure it made sense. Not now. More casual (don't freak, it's not a pejorative) players picking up the books and having games, less rules buy-in...look at Critical Role, the one of the most popular means of marketing the game: the players don't really demonstrate encyclopedic knowledge of the rules, and it's because they don't have to. That's perfect for an evergreen game.
They haven't tried to make the best game according to their game-building chops (like the creators of 13th Age did); they tried very hard to make the game as popular as possible. It worked. Why would they undo that by doing another edition?
D&D 5e is what the game will be from now on. It's what WotC want (the Catan example above). Just like there won't be a Catan 2e, there won't be a D&D 6e.
There's no money in doing so. Previously, under different models of the game and target audience, sure it made sense. Not now. More casual (don't freak, it's not a pejorative) players picking up the books and having games, less rules buy-in...look at Critical Role, the one of the most popular means of marketing the game: the players don't really demonstrate encyclopedic knowledge of the rules, and it's because they don't have to. That's perfect for an evergreen game.
They haven't tried to make the best game according to their game-building chops (like the creators of 13th Age did); they tried very hard to make the game as popular as possible. It worked. Why would they undo that by doing another edition?
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