D&D 4E 4E in 2008? Fact or Fiction?

[buzz]

I hope this thread sets off another rash of 4e threads, like "What should the pagination look like in the new books?"

I wonder how many times we'll see these threads, with all the same people saying all of the same stuff (all of which is probably wrong, like this "they'll do away with the OGL" argument).

Shall we start taking bets? I call 37.38.

 

[Storyteller01]

Shall we start taking bets? I call 37.38.

You handling the spread sheets?

 

[Rasyr]

What if they don't have a year in mind? What if they aren't planning 4e at all?

Well, in that case, the answer would say that, wouldn't it? However, I seriously doubt that 4e is not already being planned. WotC is large enough that books are likely to be planned well in advance, especially major ones, especially for such a largely major one as a 4th edition.

Besides, from what Merric has posted, WotC has as much as said that there will be a 4e, the only thing that has not been said is when.

 

[Tuzenbach]

Hey, I've got it! How about both us and WotC pretend that we're ALREADY ON 4E.....that way, we can all look forward to the forthcoming 5E!!!!! WoooHooooo!!!!

 

[Ranger REG]

Besides, from what Merric has posted, WotC has as much as said that there will be a 4e, the only thing that has not been said is when.

Wanna set up an office betting pool?

 

[wingsandsword]

Well, in that case, the answer would say that, wouldn't it? However, I seriously doubt that 4e is not already being planned. WotC is large enough that books are likely to be planned well in advance, especially major ones, especially for such a largely major one as a 4th edition.

Besides, from what Merric has posted, WotC has as much as said that there will be a 4e, the only thing that has not been said is when.

Maybe, just maybe, they don't have a fixed date yet. No secret file sitting in Charles Ryan's desk saying "4e Players Handbook: September 2009" or something like that. They know they'll make it one day, and the historic model says roughly a decade between editions, and Mr. Ryan has said point blank on the WotC site on the thread linked from earlier in this thread when asked this question (I can only imagine how often he's asked this by worried fans) that they're going to give at least one (possibly two) years advance notice. I'd make the educated guess that they're probably pencilling in somewhere around 2009 personally, but I'd be content with 3.5 pretty much forever, and that's part of the question.

When 3e came out, there was a real need for it. 2e was outdated in a lot of ways and it showed it's age. Every game I ever played of it under multiple DM's was house-ruled to the point it was practically a new edition already, and many players had left D&D for other games. 2e books weren't selling particulaly well because they were of poor quality, built on an outdated framework, and selling to a half-dozen separate product lines. If D&D was to prosper, it really needed a new edition starting almost entirely from scratch. When a large numbers of players get burned out on 3.5 and start going to other games by other companies because they think it's better, or start heavily modifying their D&D games to play like they want because the 3.5 core doesn't work for many of them any more, and 3rd Edition shows it's age possibly one day, then it the time for 4e will truly come.

 

[fanboy2000]

Well, in that case, the answer would say that, wouldn't it? However, I seriously doubt that 4e is not already being planned. WotC is large enough that books are likely to be planned well in advance, especially major ones, especially for such a largely major one as a 4th edition.

1. I've haven't seen any evidence that WotC plans books more than 12-18 months in advance.
2. 3.5 pissed-off enough of their fan base that 4e would be ill-advised.
3. While they have said that yes, there will one day be a 4th edition, such statements are a far cry from having one in development.
4. There are still a lot of things to explore in 3e and 3.5. More things than I expect people realize.

I think big part of the problem was branding a simple revision 3.5. In the world of software, .5 are often given the same marketing and development cycles as full releases. Heck, Apple's been selling OS X releases about one a year in .1 increments. Had WotC labeled 3.5 3rd Edition: Revised, I think there'd be a lot less skepticism on people's part. Personally, I think a revision was sorrily needed once the game saw real-world play. I also think they were right to release it soon. The combat chapter in the PH alone needed to be translated into english.

 

[fanboy2000]

Maybe, just maybe, they don't have a fixed date yet. No secret file sitting in Charles Ryan's desk saying "4e Players Handbook: September 2009" or something like that.

D'oh! Scooped again!

 

[Mark]

4E in 2008? Fact or Fiction?

Where "E" equals Mark Clover (squared), I'd say fiction since God doesn't play dice in my universe.

 

[Rasyr]

1. I've haven't seen any evidence that WotC plans books more than 12-18 months in advance.

Umm.. Actually, you have. Remember, in 2000, after the release of 3e, 3.5 was already in the planning stages for 2005. And even though it got moved up to a 2003 release date, that still is you proof that at least SOME books are planned more than 12-18 months in advance.

2. 3.5 pissed-off enough of their fan base that 4e would be ill-advised.

Personally, I have no argument here, because I believe the same thing. Unfortunately, I also believe that Hasbro will be the prime motivator for the release of 4e, not WOtC itself. WotC may end up not having any choice in the matter.

3. While they have said that yes, there will one day be a 4th edition, such statements are a far cry from having one in development.

If they are thinking about a 4e in any manner, then it is likely to be in development at some level. Even if the release is not scheduled until 2010, it would be in development now, so that proper playtesting can be accomplished before release date.

4. There are still a lot of things to explore in 3e and 3.5. More things than I expect people realize.

Well, 3e is effectively dead, there is only 3.5 to explore things in. But the things that are left to explore are only part of the equation. Sales are a major part of the issue, and rgps in general are in a downturn of sales right now.

I think big part of the problem was branding a simple revision 3.5. In the world of software, .5 are often given the same marketing and development cycles as full releases. Heck, Apple's been selling OS X releases about one a year in .1 increments. Had WotC labeled 3.5 3rd Edition: Revised, I think there'd be a lot less skepticism on people's part. Personally, I think a revision was sorrily needed once the game saw real-world play. I also think they were right to release it soon. The combat chapter in the PH alone needed to be translated into english.

No arguments here. Please understand that personally, I don't WANT to see 4e for another 10 years or so, unfortunately, I believe that we will see it much much sooner. Possibly as early as 2006, or even 2008.

Mr. Ryan has said point blank on the WotC site on the thread linked from earlier in this thread when asked this question (I can only imagine how often he's asked this by worried fans) that they're going to give at least one (possibly two) years advance notice.

With 3.5, you got less than 1 year's notice. Also, it is quite possible that things can change and cause dates to be moved (3.5 being moved from 2005 to 2003, anyone?) so that the 1-2 years notice might not be possible. Make sure you understand that completely. While Charles might WANT to give you such advance notice, he may not be able to for some reason

Additionally, giving that much notice is a very, very bad thing to do, business-wise. Once a revision is actually announced, it will practically kill sales of the prior version. It has happened to other companies before and will again. Distributors and retailers won't want to touch anything in the old version because they don't want to get left holding the bag with stock that won't move.

It is for this last reason, that I think that we will never see 2 years notice for 4e, that at most we might see 6-10 months of notice, and that notice will be tied into a large "ramp up" campaign with lots of tidbits in Dragon, website articles, etc...