Only if you look at it from a deterministic and mechanistic view. You assume that the probability has an exact and measureable value beforehand.Like I said, it doesn't make sense that the 'probability,' no matter what it is exactly, changes based on how many encounters you have in a day. It's 100% daily use with 1 encounter. 50% daily use with 2 encounters. And so on.
I see it more like a quantum waveform. Only when observed does it collapse into something measurable. Like the quantum waveform, that probability exists but only at the end of particular day do we know what its value was.
It's like the probability of snow at lunch tomorrow. I know the probability exists, but have no way of fixing its value. And it can certainly have different values on two consecutive days.