4e = the Titanic? and other insanity or irony

[Azgulor]

Did the Mayan calendar conclude early for 4e? Back in the summer, a mere 6-7 months ago, I asked why so many edition war threads were still flying around given the apparent result that all sides had won -- i.e. almost all fans of D&D style fantasy role-playing could find an actively supported edition: 4e, Pathfinder, retro-clones, OGL games, etc. The crux of the majority of those Edition War threads? 4e was hugely successful; no one could touch it; Essentials rocked and wasn't 4.5, Pathfinder's great success was insignificant comnpared to the value of the D&D revenues, not to mention the value of "the brand".

So here we are at the beginning of 2011 and we've got about a half-dozen or so active threads decrying the current plans/actions or lack thereof from WotC. Plus what seems to be a fairly large # of threads discussing or speculating on 5e. 5e, really?

How does 4e go from "top dog, no one can touch it" to "the sky is falling, hope 5e comes soon" in 6 months?

I don't play 4e, so other than reading some threads on Essentials out of curiosity, I haven't been following 4e or WotC save for the "will there be Christmas layoff" speculation. Why the sudden spike in disaster speculation? Is there truly merit to it?


From a purely selfish viewpoint, I hope for the following regarding 4e & the D&D brand for the next several years:

1. 4e is profitable and viable for WotC. Let the 2 main "sides" of the Edition Wars each have their victories. I don't want to see 4e fail or D&D be killed off/sold off/morphed into a non-RPG -- primarily b/c I never want to see 4e design influences make any significant inroads into Pathfinder. I fear if 4e fails, the very vocal 4e fanbase will turn to Pathfinder -- and immediately start trying to change it.

2. If D&D is sold off, it's sold off to someone other than Paizo. Personally, I think if Pathfinder continues it's track record, the Pathfinder brand will be closing in on D&D in terms of value and could one day eclipse it. I don't need to see a D&D game published by Paizo -- ever. Let Green Ronin, Fantasy Flight Games, Mongoose or some other enitity grab it (if WotC truly no longer wanted it).

3. That RPG fans of all sorts get better at separating the business realities of designing, publishing, and selling a game from liking or playing a game. Game designers may be cool people, fellow gamers, and all around great guys & gals, but they're working in this business professionally -- ant that means business decisions have to be made with an eye towards profitability & sustainability. The evil Hasbro megacorp isn't manipulating those poor, downtrodden WotC puppets.

4. That 5e is a long way off. While I don't play the current edition, I still own my 1e & 3.x edition books. I like having a link to the game that got me started in RPGs. I also think that, at least for today, an in-print & actively supported D&D game is good for the hobby. If 5e is announced & released soon, I think it will severely damage the game & brand - perhaps even killing it for good. While this wouldn't impact my gaming, I can't help but think the industry will feel the impact (to what degree I have no idea).

Here's hoping the majority of the sky-is-falling stuff is just Internet-based conspiracy theory...

Anyhow, happy gaming to all in 2011.

 

[Umbran]

How does 4e go from "top dog, no one can touch it" to "the sky is falling, hope 5e comes soon" in 6 months?

We didn't.

No, really, we didn't. My reading of the posts on this board says you've got a completely false premise here.

People have been decrying the death of WotC, 4e, and The Hobby every time WotC so much as scratches an itch, since before the release of 4e. Pretty much every single thing the company has done (and hasn't done) has been pegged as a sign of the beginning of the end.

 

[Azgulor]

While I agree that people have been predicting and/or hoping for 4e's failure since its announcement, I know I didn't hallucinate the many, many posts where people spoke to strength of the D&D brand, the popularity of 4e at their tables and FLGSs, etc. I also seem to recall back in the summer a lot of dismissal when one of the distributor's(?) sales numbers showed Pathfinder even with 4e.

Perhaps the 4e/WotC supporters just aren't giving any credence to the speculation but what appears (at casual glance) to be different this time is that you've got pro-4e fans speculating the doom and gloom rather than the anti-4e crowd. I don't recall that segment of the EN World community being as vocal previously. Pro-4e? Yes. Anti-4e? Yes. Pro-4e who felt 4e was failing/dying? Not so much.

I wrote my OP late, so perhaps I worded it poorly. I was trying to gauge whether this was just a spike in the 5e/WotC/hobby dying speculation cycle or if there people felt that there was truly something to it this time around.

 

[Dungeoneer]

All I remember from this summer was endlessly spawning apocalyptic threads saying that Essentials mean that 4.5 was upon us.

I'm not saying that something isn't out of joint right now, but I think you're wearing some rose-tinted glasses.

 

[DireWereTeddy]

I think the phenomenon you're witnessing is the apprehension over what Wizards is doing, because no one knows. In November, they ended support of the stand-alone character builder and announced a change to online tools. The online character builder has seen some bugs. No one really knows if any of the other online tools are actually ever going to be released. Plus, they've changed the system for presenting DDI articles, announced that they'll be doing less miniatures, and removed/delayed at least two books on their release calendar.

All in all, it has the feel that there's something big happened at Wizards, but we have no idea what, and because of their recent policy of minimal communication (which I don't blame them for), we probably won't know until they're ready to announce it.

 

[BryonD]

Don't #3 and #4 kinda contradict each other? You have some wiggle room with the "i hope" part, but still.


D&D is profitable and will easily remain profitable for two more years. (Barring any black swan events) However, the question is, is it meeting expectations? How much investment was there up front? How much MORE profit could a different system be making. How much profit was anticipated? At this point a major change wouldn't make any sense. If they are thrilled, obviously they will stay the course. If they are disappointed, they won't justify the start-up of a reboot quite yet.


I'm just pulling numbers out of the air here and don't remotely claim to have any knowledge. Just call this my tea leaf reading.

Chance of WotC wanting to sell D&D in next 3 years: Less than 1 in 20
Chance of Hasbro permitting the sell of D&D in the next 3 years: Less than 1 in 50
Chance of Paizo wanting to buy D&D in the next three years*: Less than 1 in 4
Chance of Paizo being the party who succeeds in buying a for sale D&D that they want: Less than 1 in 10

I don't expect Paizo to ever own D&D.


* - Chance of various employees at all levels of Paizo wanting to own D&D is probably 101%. But not as a business choice.

 

[Aeolius]

4e <> Titanic
4e = Iceberg

 

[Azgulor]

Don't #3 and #4 kinda contradict each other? You have some wiggle room with the "i hope" part, but still.

They certainly could be. However, I can separate "What I want" from "what makes business sense". Regardless, whatever the outcome, I'll give the WotC folks enough credit that they made their decisions for business reasons and not assume that EVIL HASBRO made them do it -- unless someone at WotC says that's what happened.

 

[Nifft]

Near, far, wherever you are
I believe that the game does go on
Once more you kick in the door
And you're here in my fight
And my game will go on and on

Cheers, -- N

 

[amerigoV]

How does 4e go from "top dog, no one can touch it" to "the sky is falling, hope 5e comes soon" in 6 months?

That is nothing. Just watch the reason for the change in the stock market each day.

Day 1, Market down 200 points: Fears of Greek debt will kill the market
Day 2, Market up 100 points: Greece says "screw the EU", investors like their bold statement
Day 3, Market down 50 points: No news, so "investors take profits"
Day 4, Market down 500 points: President did not wear a US flag pin during a key speech, rampant speculation freaks market.

Internet boards are markets of their own. Idyl speculation + group speak + a couple of vociferous posters creates movements.


FYI - I do have to say there are a large number of posts speculating on the rise/demise of the game. Odd, given all the material that is available to play these days.