D&D 3E/3.5 4E vs 3E Sales Figures: The Facts

[Nifft]

4e sort of proves that the brand name trumped the rule set or the OGL. (...) Unless later on people reject 4e in droves and go back to 3e. We'll have to see.

Even then, I'm not going to declare that 4e has killed anything until that thing stops twitching.

It's entirely possible to play 3.5e and Star Wars Saga.

It's going to remain possible to play 4e and an OGL-derived game.

When those OGL games are dead, we can decide if Dancey was wrong.

Cheers, -- N

 

[JohnRTroy]

Of course, I don't know what the numbers are, but I;m certain that WoTC makes much more money off of splatbooks than the core books. Will players, after dealing with 4e for a few months, be willing to shell out $30 each for more books?

Actually, they don't. Splat books sell a lot less than the core rules. They sell PHBs in the millions, while stuff like FR or the like sells less than 100,000 or even 50,000. The core books are their bread and butter, which is why they want to have PHB2, DMG2, etc, as an annual event.

This has always been the way it's gone since 1e. Don't think the core books are ever considered "loss-leaders" at all, Wizards makes their money and depends on that money.

Even then, I'm not going to declare that 4e has killed anything until that thing stops twitching.

I never said the OGL games were dead. I said that you can't blame the OGL for the success of the new edition, especially since the new release doesn't really use much of the previous ruleset or an OGL. Ryan's prediction that Wizards would never close up the ruleset from the OGL because the fans would reject them since they would never want the game to change greatly turned out to be wrong in the end, unless a few years pass and 4e fails to be dominant.

 

[Wisdom Penalty]

I'm not sure the OGL has anything to do with the initial success of 4e.

Well, I agree for the most part. I don't think the OGL helped fuel 4E's impressive sales, since we're talking two different animals. But - but - I do think the OGL helped make 3E the success that it was, and the success of 3E has helped spur the success of 4E's roll-out.

Wis

 

[Leftahead]

Was Amazon as big a force in 2000 when 3e came out?

The super sales of all the preorders might simply be that Amazon/buy/etc are just the more recognized, cheaper source (partially because the price has gone up so high that turning to cheaper online retail is necessary).

Amazon began operation in 1995, so while it may not have been as ubiquitous as it is these days (it accounts for a little over 10% of total print book sales last I heard), it was certainly there and operational.

4E is only 5 bucks a book more than 3.5, so given inflation, the cost of purchasing the game has gone DOWN since the last edition/revision in terms of real dollars.

I don't imagine that low-cost online retailers have done much to drive sales of these books simple by their existence; predatory pricing has always been with us in one form or another... if you didn't have Net access in 2000 when 3.5 came out, you just bought it from a local basement discounter at comparable savings. The online discounters have supplanted the local price wars, certainly, but it's not like Amazon is creating sales out of whole cloth from people who weren't otherwise interested in D&D simply because the books are cheap enough.

The orders for 4E are so robust because WoTC has done a very savvy marketing job, building anticipation for the game and tapping the current cultural interest in 'nerd chic'. Good for them (and game stores, too!).

-Jim C.

 

[Leftahead]

Double-posted by accident, new to the forums, sorry!

Please move on.

-Jim C.

 

[Mistwell]

Since 4e hasn't even been officially released yet, I think it's a little early to be talking about sales.

When the initial print run sells out before the release date, it's something worth talking about.

I'm sure that the initial run will sell out,

It already did, a couple of days ago. They already went to second print.

but that's not a guarantee. Just because Amazon and all of the other big sellers have ordered thousands of copies doesn't mean that they will sell these.

Yes, it does. They sold them. They are all spoken for, 100%. Gone to second print because of that. My bet is second print will sell out pretty quick too.

I think the true test will be when splatbooks start appearing. Will 4e retain people's attention or will players grow tired of it and go back to 3E?

The core books are the bulk of the sales. Splatbooks keep people employed, but the real money is in the CORE.

Of course, I don't know what the numbers are, but I;m certain that WoTC makes much more money off of splatbooks than the core books.

I am certain you are wrong. They sell a MASSIVE amount more of the CORE books than splat books, and bulk printing discounts kick in much better for the CORE books than the splatbooks. No question about it, WOTC makes more money from CORE books than splat books.

Will players, after dealing with 4e for a few months, be willing to shell out $30 each for more books?

I'm not sure, but I don't think that's as important a question as you are making it out to be. CORE sales are the most important thing for the game, just like for 3.0 and 3.5. An awful lot of players never buy anything (for any version) beyond the PHB...the fact that so many bought all three CORE books says a lot in itself.

 

[Nifft]

I never said the OGL games were dead. I said that you can't blame the OGL for the success of the new edition, especially since the new release doesn't really use much of the previous ruleset or an OGL. Ryan's prediction that Wizards would never close up the ruleset from the OGL because the fans would reject them since they would never want the game to change greatly turned out to be wrong in the end, unless a few years pass and 4e fails to be dominant.

We'll see how closed they make 4e in practice.

If they do keep it (relatively) closed and the overall market shrinks over the next 10 years, Dancey may have been on to something, even if 4e is "dominant" during that whole timespan.

(His prediction was predicated on two assumptions, one of which is WotC acting like a perfectly rational economic agent. Even if his other assumption proves correct, this one is suspect, because real entities are never perfect and seldom rational.)

Cheers, -- N

 

[Pramas]

When the initial print run sells out before the release date, it's something worth talking about.

It's a good sign, but there is a difference between sell in and sell through. WotC has sold their first print run into the channel. That means distributor and book trade buyers believe it will a strong seller. It's not a guarantee of sell through though, which is actually end users buying it. It could be the first print run will satisfy demand in the near future and the second print run will sell slowly. Or it could mean that the first print run wasn't big enough and the reprint was really needed right away. No one will know until the books are actually on store shelves.

 

[Ahglock]

Yes, it does. They sold them. They are all spoken for, 100%. Gone to second print because of that. My bet is second print will sell out pretty quick too.

Then why can I go to Amazon right now and buy a pre-order available June 6th? Because, I just did go check and there it was. Amazon preorder

Look, I hope it does as well as stated that will be great. Personal anecdote time, but the group I game with has picked up 3 new gamers who never gamed before over the last few years. Gaming, near the end of the 2e error seemed to be in a slump.

I have no idea if the #s will bear this out, but in my experience in my gaming circles it has at least somewhat pulled it self out of that slump. While the new gamers I am talking about joined a Shadowrun game not D&D, D&D3e may very well have been the behind the scenes factor of why these full gown adults decided to pick up gaming. The Fantasy genre is more in the public eye than it used to be and its not in a way that gives a initial negative impression. I really think 4e will do better than 3e overall, it seems like there is a better market for it.