D&D 3.x 4E vs 3E Sales Figures: The Facts

Family said:
"An estimated 20 million people worldwide have played the game, with more than $1bn (£505m) spent on equipment and books."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7278927.stm

"...the $1.5 billion fantasy game industry..."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/04/AR2008030402784.html

That'll do pig. That'll do.


Although I love an obscure herding reference as much as the next guy, unless you mean to call me a pig, that last bit should be in quotes and attributed to Farmer Hoggett, no? :D
 

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The irony is that these numbers seem to indicate that our community is bigger, stronger, and more homogeneous than ever before. This is in direct contrast to the woe that was cried on these boards (including the whining by yours truly) that our community was being fractured between 4e and 3e and it's dozens of derivatives and off-shoots.

No, sir. These numbers allow us to leave the realm of theatrical drama and enter the realm of cold, hard statistics. And we see that 4E is a juggernaut, and anything else - truly - is an aberrant fragment of the gamer base as a whole.

It's a good time to be a gamer.

4e. It does a DM good.


Wis
 

Well, to be fair, while a lot of people are buying the game, it remains to be seen if they play it after trying it. Even those who are cold on D&D are likely buying the set to see what it's like and keep an open mind.

I think the message boards will be a better indicator of what people will actually DO with the rules once all the hype is over. There are movies that do very well the first week, then drop off quickly. Sales is a good indicator of short-term interest but not how well it will do in the long term.

It could be really great, or really disappointing.
 

JohnRTroy said:
Well, to be fair, while a lot of people are buying the game, it remains to be seen if they play it after trying it. Even those who are cold on D&D are likely buying the set to see what it's like and keep an open mind.

I think the message boards will be a better indicator of what people will actually DO with the rules once all the hype is over. There are movies that do very well the first week, then drop off quickly. Sales is a good indicator of short-term interest but not how well it will do in the long term.

It could be really great, or really disappointing.

Agreed with everything except the messageboards comment.

I have long suspected you can't rely on messageboard traffic for anything of substantive value when considering norms or trends. And the recent spate of absurdities that occurred upon these very boards - when held against the statistics - seems to validate that thought.

For once, I was a right.

Time to go back to being stupid...

Wis
 

Wisdom Penalty said:
The irony is that these numbers seem to indicate that our community is bigger, stronger, and more homogeneous than ever before. This is in direct contrast to the woe that was cried on these boards (including the whining by yours truly) that our community was being fractured between 4e and 3e and it's dozens of derivatives and off-shoots.

No, sir. These numbers allow us to leave the realm of theatrical drama and enter the realm of cold, hard statistics. And we see that 4E is a juggernaut, and anything else - truly - is an aberrant fragment of the gamer base as a whole.

It could also be argued that it is a reflection of Ryan Dancey's original OGL strategy. WotC like many others benefited from the 3.x rules which raised the waters for everyone. Now the question remains whether the 4e rules and GSL strategy will contnue to raise the waters further.
 
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Brown Jenkin said:
It could also be argued that it is a reflection of Ryan Dancey's original OGL strategy. WotC like many others benefited from the 3.x rules which raised the waters for everyone. Now the question remains whether the 4e rules and GSL strategy will contnue to raise the waters further.

Yep. Ryan D. is a demi-god in my mind. These numbers seem to certainly suggest that 3E, if nothing else, set the stage for a robust community after a decade or more of decline. Likely this was due to the OGL and the rules themselves which, though grognards may disagree, were certainly an evolutionary step forward from the previous incarnations. And I'm saying this as a guy that cut my teeth for many, many years on 1E.

One can only hope the momentum we have continues long into the life of 4E (and that said life lasts longer than 3E did).

Wis
 

Since 4e hasn't even been officially released yet, I think it's a little early to be talking about sales. I'm sure that the initial run will sell out, but that's not a guarantee. Just because Amazon and all of the other big sellers have ordered thousands of copies doesn't mean that they will sell these.

I think the true test will be when splatbooks start appearing. Will 4e retain people's attention or will players grow tired of it and go back to 3E?

Of course, I don't know what the numbers are, but I;m certain that WoTC makes much more money off of splatbooks than the core books. Will players, after dealing with 4e for a few months, be willing to shell out $30 each for more books?
 

I'm sorry I think Ryan's strategy ultimately failed.

I'm not sure the OGL has anything to do with the initial success of 4e. First of all it fails Ryan's theory that Wizards would never try remove the OGL from the game or change it so much. He felt the rules were stable because not even Wizards could compete with it, and was quoted as saying that if Wizards ever tried to change the game, the fans could reject them and go elsewhere.

4e sort of proves that the brand name trumped the rule set or the OGL. There's a GSL but it's not the same thing. If Ryan's prediction was true, fans should be rejecting the brand name and going for Paizo or another party. That's not happening. In fact, as soon as 4e was announced 3.x products from third parties fell sharply.

Unless later on people reject 4e in droves and go back to 3e. We'll have to see.
 
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