D&D 4E 4E WotC way of saying your fired?

[Celebrim]

No. It has nothing to do with what I want to believe. The fact of the matter is that online polls result in biased samples, because they allow self-selection among the respondents. There are any number of websites out there that go into this phenomenon in detail - just Google "biased sample" for a start - but the short answer is that these polls are not scientific and thus are generally not taken seriously.

I know what selection bias is.

I'm not publishing this to a journal to establish some scientific fact. Allowing self-selection may or may not create a bias in the sampling results. A scientific study that allows some degree of self-selection may be considered sufficiently valid if an argument can be put forth that what is being studied is not influenced by any factor that would cause selection bias. For example, it's not unusual to ask for volunteers amongst patients when conducting human trials of a new therapy. In this case, the selection bias is probably for for something like 'desparation', but the participants can usually be considered sufficiently representative of the patient population as a whole.

Obviously, we are measuring something less concrete than the effectiveness of a treatment, but again I'm not trying to prove anything. All I'm saying is make a 'gut check'. Do we seem like a reasonable cross section of the D&D playing RPG community? If not, then why not?

I'm not trying to demonstrate anything about the future direction of table top roleplaying, because the most obvious selection bias is one I'm admitting. We are the D&D playing RPG community. I'm not saying anything, nor do I think the poll says anything, about the non-D&D playing, non-RPG community. Maybe 4e is exactly what it takes to bring that community into the game and launch D&D into the mainstream, and so who cares what the existing fanbase things. But I do think internet polls say something about the D&D playing RPG community and all the squeels of 'biased sampling' 'just because' don't change that.

 

[Grog]

So are the folks that go to the WotC forums, choose to take a poll on the WotC website, join the RPGA, and/or attend a big convention. The issue -- for me, anyway -- is that the method they've used to determine which way they are going to go with the game is no more likely to produce an honest result than an ENWorld poll.

Do you know the full extent of WotC's market research? I seriously doubt that they would limit it to just the sources you describe.

And if they have, well, they'll probably pay a price for it when 4E is released, so I guess we'll see, won't we?

 

[Grog]

Obviously, we are measuring something less concrete than the effectiveness of a treatment, but again I'm not trying to prove anything. All I'm saying is make a 'gut check'. Do we seem like a reasonable cross section of the D&D playing RPG community? If not, then why not?

Again, whether or not ENWorld is a reasonable cross section of the D&D playing RPG community is the wrong question. The right question is, are the people who answered the latest poll about 4E a reasonable cross section of the D&D playing RPG community?

Of course, no one can answer that question with 100% certainty, but it's extremely likely that the answer is "no." This is because, even if we grant the assumption that ENWorld is a good cross-section of the D&D playing community, the nature of the poll all but guarantees that the results will not produce a representative sample of the feelings of the community. Polls that allow for self-selection among the respondents almost invariably produce sampling bias, and your attempts to label the pointing out of that fact as "squeeling" (sic) won't change that.

 

[JohnSnow]

Obviously, we are measuring something less concrete than the effectiveness of a treatment, but again I'm not trying to prove anything. All I'm saying is make a 'gut check'. Do we seem like a reasonable cross section of the D&D playing RPG community? If not, then why not?

...

But I do think internet polls say something about the D&D playing RPG community and all the squeels of 'biased sampling' 'just because' don't change that.

Are we a reasonable cross section of the D&D playing RPG community? Of course not.

You say you understand selection bias. Do you understand demographics? That older players are more likely to post here? That internet message boards, by their very nature bring out the "passionate" in droves, and leave the "interested" cold.

And upset people are more passionate than those who are happy. Most people who like the changes they see in the cosmology think "oh cool. Can't wait for 4e." By contrast, people who hate them think "OMG! HOw dare they?! I'm going to go and protest!!"

And when all the angry people are speaking, but the happy minority is content to let them shriek, the angry folks think they're a majority.

Trust me, WotC got all kinds of opinions before they ever announced anything. They conducted internet surveys, they probably conducted by mail surveys. They probably did a stratified random sample of people who had Dragon magazine subscriptions, and the probably did it all more than two years ago, when nobody was feeling especially passionate about ANYTHING. I'm sure they learned their lesson from the TSR days. It's not like they fell off the turnip truck the minute Dancey stopped being Brand Manager.

 

[Scribble]

Trust me, WotC got all kinds of opinions before they ever announced anything. They conducted internet surveys, they probably conducted by mail surveys. They probably did a stratified random sample of people who had Dragon magazine subscriptions, and the probably did it all more than two years ago, when nobody was feeling especially passionate about ANYTHING. I'm sure they learned their lesson from the TSR days. It's not like they fell off the turnip truck the minute Dancey stopped being Brand Manager.

Anyone else remember a while back when they did that "sign up to fill out surveys and you can win D&D stuff. The More you fill out the more chances you have..." thing?

Betcha a lot of that was aimed at 4e...

 

[Reynard]

Anyone else remember a while back when they did that "sign up to fill out surveys and you can win D&D stuff. The More you fill out the more chances you have..." thing?

Betcha a lot of that was aimed at 4e...

Now there is a skewed sample.

 

[Turjan]

Now there is a skewed sample.

But somehow fitting for the purpose. I guess it was people who are into miniatures?

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

"You're!" "You're!" For the love of Garl Glittergold, "you're!"

 

[Wolfspider]

"You're!" "You're!" For the love of Garl Glittergold, "you're!"

Grammar? Obviously a sacred cow.

Bring on the hamburger....

 

[Turjan]

"You're!" "You're!" For the love of Garl Glittergold, "you're!"

Who loves Garl Glittergold? And I thought he was retired?