5+ years of ICV2 Rankings - A retrospective

[jodyjohnson]

Note: online articles for ICV2 don't go beyond here much. This is retail only, not including Amazon/the web, or Paizo, or DDI. Anecdotal surveys to stores.

Summer 2008 - the 4e launch
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/13174.html

ICv2 Top 5 Role-Playing Games

1. Dungeons & Dragons
2. Warhammer 40K: Dark Heresy
3. World of Darkness
4. Shadowrun
5. Exalted

Fall 2008
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/13825.html

Top 5 Roleplaying Games
1-Dungeons and Dragons-Wizards of the Coast
2-Warhammer 40K: Dark Heresy =Fantasy Flight Games
3-World of Darkness - White Wolf
4-Shadowrun - Catalyst Lab Games
5-Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing

Winter 2008-09
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/14725.html

Top 5 Roleplaying Games

1 Dungeons and Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
2 Warhammer 40k: Dark Heresy - Fantasy Flight Games
4 World of Darkness - White Wolf Publishing (???)
3 Star Wars - Wizards of the Coast (???)
5 Shadowrun - Catalyst Game Labs

Pathfinder beta and the other products get it to 5th for Fall.

 

[jodyjohnson]

2009 Year 2 4e and the Pathfinder full launch

Qtr 2 2009
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/15715.html

1 Dungeons and Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
2 Warhammer 40k: Dark Heresy - Fantasy Flight Games
4 World of Darkness - White Wolf Publishing
3 Song of Ice and Fire - Green Ronin Publishing
5 Shadowrun - Catalyst Game Labs

Qtr 3 2009
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/16202.html

1 Dungeons and Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
2 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
3 World of Darkness - White Wolf Publishing
4 Song of Ice and Fire - Green Ronin Publishing
5 Shadowrun -Catalyst Game Labs

Qtr 4 2009
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/17087.html

1 Dungeons and Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
2 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
3 Warhammer Fantasy RPG - Fantasy Flight Games
4 Rogue Trader/Dark Heresy - Fantasy Flight Games
5 World of Darkness - White Wolf/CCP

Pathfinder launches at #2, remains #1 or #2 through present.

 

[jodyjohnson]

2010 Essentials and the Pathfinder transition

Qtr 1 2010
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/17571.html

1 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
2 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
3 Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay - Fantasy Flight Games
4 Rogue Trader/Dark Heresy - Fantasy Flight Games
5 Dragon Age - Green Ronin Publishing

Qtr 2 2010
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/18045.html

1 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
2 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
3 Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay - Fantasy Flight Games
4 ShadowRun - Catlyst Game Labs
5 Rogue Trader/Dark Heresy - Fantasy Flight Games

Qtr 3 2010
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/18504.html

1 (Tie) Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
1 (Tie) Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
3 Warhammer Fantasy - Fantasy Flight Games
4 Dark Heresy/Rogue Trader - Fantasy Flight Games
5 Dresden Files - Evil Hat

Qtr 4 2010
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/19721.html

1 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
2 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
3 Dark Heresy/Rogue Trader/Deathwatch - Fantasy Flight Games
4 Dragon Age - Green Ronin Publishing
5 Mutants and Masterminds, inc. DC - Green Ronin Publishing

 

[jodyjohnson]

2011 4e winds down as Pathfinder ramps up

Qtr 1 2011
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/20178.html

1 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
2 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
3 Dark Heresy/Rogue Trader/Deathwatch - Fantasy Flight Games
4 Dragon Age - Green Ronin Publishing
5 Mutants and Masterminds, inc. DC - Green Ronin Publishing

Qtr 2 2011
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/20743.html

1 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
2 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
3 Dark Heresy/Rogue Trader/Deathwatch - Fantasy Flight Games
4 Dragon Age - Green Ronin Publishing
5 Shadowrun - Catalyst Game Labs

Summer 2011
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/21403.html

1 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
2 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
3 Dark Heresy/Rogue Trader/Deathwatch - Fantasy Flight Games
4 Dragon Age - Green Ronin Publishing
5 Shadowrun - Catalyst Game Labs

Qtr 4 2011
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/22214.html

1 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
2 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
3 Dark Heresy/Rogue Trader/Deathwatch - Fantasy Flight Games
4 Dragon Age - Green Ronin Publishing
5 The One Ring - Cubicle 7

 

[jodyjohnson]

2012 5e Beta begins as Pathfinder pulls away from the pack

Spring 2012
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/23500.html

1 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
2 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
3 Dark Heresy/Rogue Trader/Deathwatch - Fantasy Flight Games
4 Dragon Age - Green Ronin Publishing
5 Marvel Heroic Roleplaying - Margaret Weis Productions

Summer 2012
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/24224.html

1 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
2 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
3 Dark Heresy/Rogue Trader/Deathwatch - Fantasy Flight Games
4 Dragon Age - Green Ronin Publishing
5 Dungeon Crawl Classics - Goodman Games

Fall 2012
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/25377.html

1 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
2 Star Wars - Fantasy Flight Games
3 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
4 Dark Heresy/Rogue Trader/Deathwatch - Fantasy Flight Games
5 Iron Kingdoms - Privateer Press

 

[jodyjohnson]

2013 5e Beta continues - Pathfinder continues to fill in the holes

Spring 2013
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/26215.html

1 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
2 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
3 Star Wars - Fantasy Flight Games
4 Iron Kingdoms - Privateer Press
5 Dark Heresy/Rogue Trader/Deathwatch - Fantasy Flight Games

Summer 2013
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/27068.html

1 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
2 Star Wars - Fantasy Flight Games
3 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
4 Iron Kingdoms - Privateer Press
5 Fate Core System - Evil Hat Productions

Fall 2013
http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/28124.html

1 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
2 Star Wars - Fantasy Flight Games
3 Fate Core System - Evil Hat
4 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
5 Iron Kingdoms - Privateer Press

 

[Bluenose]

You know what would be interesting to see. How much material came out for the various games involved during the period in question? I believe for instance that FFG are currently working on a new edition of their WH40K games and aren't producing material in print for them, so it dropping out of the charts (while their SW game remains strong) isn't unexpected. And Fate had three new books in the Summer/Fall of 2013 - the system Toolkit and both Fate Worlds volumes - which probably helped those numbers. I suspect a correlation between "product arrives on shelves" and "people notice product being sold" is likely to be strong.

 

[M.L. Martin]

You know what would be interesting to see. How much material came out for the various games involved during the period in question? I believe for instance that FFG are currently working on a new edition of their WH40K games and aren't producing material in print for them, so it dropping out of the charts (while their SW game remains strong) isn't unexpected. And Fate had three new books in the Summer/Fall of 2013 - the system Toolkit and both Fate Worlds volumes - which probably helped those numbers. I suspect a correlation between "product arrives on shelves" and "people notice product being sold" is likely to be strong.

Indeed. For example, I notice that Pathfinder only overtakes D&D after the schedule gets chopped to pieces in 2011. (Half the products announced for the Q1/Q2 timeframe were delayed or never released at all.) Similarly, D&D slips to #3 when new print product practically stops altogether (Menzoberranzan's the only book released within that timeframe; everything else is Dungeon Tiles and Map Packs).

 

[Plaguescarred]

That tells me no other RPG sells better than D&D, they just sell more when D&D put next to nothing for sales in FLGS. Even then it managed to remain in top #5, quite surprising. Check out late 2014-2015 ICv2 when 5E release and sales start to fly, how quickly it will take back #1 position.

 

[jodyjohnson]

That tells me no other RPG sells better than D&D, they just sell more when D&D put next to nothing for sales in FLGS. Even then it managed to remain in top #5, quite surprising. Check out late 2014-2015 ICv2 when 5E release and sales start to fly, how quickly it will take back #1 position.

Agreed.

Looking at the current new releases, and upcoming releases I predict Spring 2014.

First, I think we'll see a weak Spring at retail for RPG. The Next launch is going to cast a shadow over RPG spending. Most spending will be done by habitual spenders - experimenters (and of course folks who don't give a rat's tail about fantasy RPG -- which is the minority).

1. Pathfinder ("D&D" sells, even under a different brand)
2. Star Wars - FFG: although I think their agressive release schedule is going to come back and bite them, probably off the Top 5 by Fall 2014.
3. Numerera - filling out the core books will get some significant buy in, especially since the market's on hold for D&D 5e
4. Dr. Who - Netflix is getting this IP in front of a lot of young and old eyeballs. Not a traditional RPG but it'll get some spill-over.
5. Shadowrun - only other game with a solid spring release schedule.

13th Age almost made the list, but I think it's very regional.
WotC simply doesn't have a single product to shelf until summer.

The Spring report won't come out until Summer and by then I probably won't care to keep track anymore.