So Archfiends is coming out. I have fallen for the collectability hook, and let us say for the sake of argument that I want to "collect 'em all". (Actually, I just want to collect the ones I want, which is most, but not all). I want to buy the ideal number of expansion packs, then fill in the rest from singles or trading. Personally, I found that to be about 9 or 10 packs for a 60 figure set, but I want some real probabilities.
There are 4 commons, 3 uncommons and 1 rare in each pack, and 16 commons, 24 uncommons and 20 rares total in the set.
Let's say I want to buy expansions until there is a high probability that 2 out of the three uncommons will be duplicates, and/or that the next rare will be a duplicate. Presumably by that time one would have each common multiple times.
Using what I know to be incorrect math - after 10 packs I would have 10 rares, so the next one is a 50/50 shot. But, there was a certain cumulative probability each previous pack that the rare would be a duplicate, so after 10 packs, I will likely have only 8 or 9 unique rares right? So the chance of a duplicate on the 11th pack is still lower than 50%.
So that's the exercise: after N packs, what is the number of unique rares that you should have? Unique uncommons?
BTW, my intent for this thread is to allow folks to exercise their math muscles. If you are one of the folks who post about how you disdain D&D Miniatures in every thread remotely related to them, trust me, you have made your point. If you want to restate it yet again, please do it in another thread and don't hijack mine.
There are 4 commons, 3 uncommons and 1 rare in each pack, and 16 commons, 24 uncommons and 20 rares total in the set.
Let's say I want to buy expansions until there is a high probability that 2 out of the three uncommons will be duplicates, and/or that the next rare will be a duplicate. Presumably by that time one would have each common multiple times.
Using what I know to be incorrect math - after 10 packs I would have 10 rares, so the next one is a 50/50 shot. But, there was a certain cumulative probability each previous pack that the rare would be a duplicate, so after 10 packs, I will likely have only 8 or 9 unique rares right? So the chance of a duplicate on the 11th pack is still lower than 50%.
So that's the exercise: after N packs, what is the number of unique rares that you should have? Unique uncommons?
BTW, my intent for this thread is to allow folks to exercise their math muscles. If you are one of the folks who post about how you disdain D&D Miniatures in every thread remotely related to them, trust me, you have made your point. If you want to restate it yet again, please do it in another thread and don't hijack mine.
