Not very unclear, I don't think. I also think you're more-or-less restating @Aebir-Toril's point about the lack of causality/temporal integrity in fiction vis-a-vis the real world.Regarding the Shire, I suspect it has a history because Tolkien wrote a story about a Hobbit from it, looking at it from outside that story. So, the causality in the real world might be kinda backward to whatever fictional causality might exist. As in, in the fiction, the hobbits are thus because the Shire is like so; in the real world, the Shire is written to be like so because it would make the hobbits thus. I'm worried I'm being unclear here.
I was going to finish with that, but will add something.
Taken in itself, Aebir-Toril's point is pretty self-evident, even trite. The reason it is nevertheless worth stating is because, among RPGers, there is a tendency to treat the fiction as if it itself exercises causal power, or as if the narration of it is constrained by an inner causal or temporal logic (which would be a much much tighter constraint than internal consistency).
You can see that happening in this thread, eg when @FrogReaver confuses the player performing a check that establishes (inter alia) that a tower was built in the imagined past with the character performs an action of recollecting said tower and thereby causes (in the fiction) the tower to exist. And for the avoidance of doubt, here is the post I have in mind:
FrogReaver's second case does not exist, and it can only be presented as if it did because of treating an action in the real world whereby a player causing a fiction to be authored/established and an action performed by an imaginary character that produces an imagined causal change in the character's imagined world as if they are the same, or at least in causal interaction with one another.Characters fictional actions either cause something to happen in the fiction or they don't.
There are 3 cases.
1. Characters action is the cause of something that happens in the fiction such that the character could say "my action caused this" and have it be true within the fiction.
2. Characters action is the cause of something that happens in the fiction such that the character would say "my action did not cause this" and have it be true within the fiction.
3. Characters action did not cause something to happen in the fiction in any way.
<snip>
Character actions that cause something to happen in the fiction but that the character could say in the fiction "my action did not cause this" hamper role playing (because characters do things for a reason and this takes away the reason they would ever perform that action).