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An idea for WotC - how to transition to "5E"

Mercurius

Legend
In this thread, [MENTION=4129]Alaxk Knight of Galt[/MENTION] re-posted a recent Rule of Three article in which Rich Baker discussed the problems with the Powers structure in 4E. This, in addition to all of the "5E ruminations" by Mike Mearls and Monte Cook, inspired an idea and recommendation for Wizards of the Coast as to how they might proceed towards 5E with the hopes of accomplishing two things at once: not pre-maturely killing 4E (although still taking its stuff) and effectively open playtesting ideas for 5E so as to seamlessly (and relatively painlessly) transition from one edition to the next.

First of all, let us assume that 5E is inevitable - that at some point in the future, whether GenCon 2012 or beyond, we'll be receiving an announcement from WotC that 5E is on the horizon. While I like 4E, my first impulse is "the sooner the better." Not only do I admit to liking "teh new shiny" but 4E has some major flaws that are difficult to bypass without a new edition or, at least, a major revision and probably re-packaging. Furthermore, given today's speed of technological development, a 2012 announcement leading to a 2013 release is hardly too soon - that's five years between editions.

That said, as some have pointed out, WotC finally seems to be hitting their stride with 4E. Among the post-Essentials products, only Heroes of Shadow was a doozy by consensus opinion; most of the other major releases--Shadowfell, Madness at Gardmore Abbey, Monsters of Nentir Vale, Neverwinter Campaign Setting, and Heroes of the Feywild--have been well regarded by fans, with Mordenkainen's Magnificient Emporium receiving mixed reviews. Even the online tools (from what I've heard) have improved. So, if 4E is finally hitting its stride, now would not be the time to announce 5E...at least not quite yet.

Given that 4E has reached a kind of plateau, it is unlikely to last for long; with today's speed of technological development, I would guess 1-2 years at best, maybe even less than a year (I maintain that GenCon 2012 is the right time for such an announcement...that's probably around the time that the current plateau will be starting to show signs of crumbling). What WotC wouldn't want to happen is for 4E to fall completely on its face (again); that already (almost/kind of) happened with the lull post-Essentials and the switch-over from "classic" to the new Character Builder. WotC seemed to be flailing with no discernible direction. So to put off the transition to 5E for too long would be a mistake as well; so it comes down to "not too loose, not too tight" or rather, "not too soon, not too late" and, more specific to this post, how to make that transition.

Which brings me to my idea, or recommendation really. Now would be the time to try out new ideas for 5E. It seems this has alreadly started with the Legends & Lore articles of the last six months or so, but at some point you should take it a step further and start producing products that are, in essence, trial runs for 5E. What I mean by this would be something similar to the 2E options books - rules packaged as "optional" modules to add to one's 4E game. Rules that try out new ideas, that play with the potential of the 4E core rules, even change them slightly.

The reason Rich Baker's article about powers inspired this idea for me is that I could see a book that offered a new power structure, one that could be used in place of the existing one. Powers would be consolidated, clarified, and re-compiled. Perhaps PCs can choose from lists specific to their Power sources. Classes can be re-envisioned as combining primary, secondary, and tertiary power sources, with varying degrees of access of the different power lists (e.g. only a class with Martial as primary could gain access to the more powerful and/or daily Martial powers...or something like that). There could still be specialty powers only available to certain classes, but those would be the exception and not the rule. This approach would offer a further degree of customization and may reduce the number of classes, although the point of this post is not to get into details--that's your job, WotC folks!

So the way forward that makes sense to me would be to, over the next year or so, roll out "optional" items that both take 4E to a new level and bring forth ideas that will form 5E. This is a way whereby you get to further develop the existing game, but also see what people like for 5E. If Essentials was 4.25E then this would be 4.5E, but you wouldn't have to call it so.

If nothing else I'm saying that you (WotC) don't have to squeeze every last drop out of 4E before moving on to 5E; you don't have to abruptly shift gears on us; you don't have to design 5E in a vacuum without community feedback (which it seems that, with Legends & Lore, you realize).

Now if you don't want to publish books that you (and we) know are only temporary transitions to 5E, why not utilize D&D Insider for an ongoing series of rules options? Let the larger pool of D&D players try out new rules...in other words, let us help you design 5E. But--and this is the important part--in the context of further developing 4E. The key being that 5E can be an out-growth, development, and evolution from 4E, not just a new game. That's how you got in trouble with 4E in the first place!

If I were to posit (and recommend) a timeline, it would be something like this:

Jan-August, 2012: rules options books, articles; alpha playtesting
August, 2012 (GenCon): 5E announcement
August, 2012-June, 2013: D&D Insider beta playtesting, further "rules options" products
June, 2013: 5E

Looking at the product catalog, there are only two major D&D products planned for 2012: Heroes of Elemental Chaos in February and The Dungeon Explorer's Guide in May; this gives you plenty of calendar space for the types of products I'm talking about.
 

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If nothing else I'm saying that you (WotC) don't have to squeeze every last drop out of 4E before moving on to 5E; you don't have to abruptly shift gears on us; you don't have to design 5E in a vacuum without community feedback (which it seems that, with Legends & Lore, you realize).

Well, D&D has a history of putting out books towards the end of an edition that pre-sage the next, right? Like UA for 1st edition. Skills & Powers for 2nd. Tome of Battle for 3rd. (If you count non-D&D books, then you'd include Gamma World leading into 3rd edition and Star Wars leading into 4th, but I think that's stretching the analogy.)

Point being that we're likely to see SOME version of this no matter what happens, although history suggests that what you'll see will be options evocative of what eventually appears in 5e, but not actual rules.

(On a side note: My guess is that when we get 5e, it will echo the Essentials/Core split of 4e, but with Essentials being MUCH closer to 3.5/PF to try to heal the edition schism.)
 

Jan-August, 2012: rules options books, articles; alpha playtesting
August, 2012 (GenCon): 5E announcement
August, 2012-June, 2013: D&D Insider beta playtesting, further "rules options" products
June, 2013: 5E

I'm starting with the assumption that the bulk of 4E revenue comes from subscription fees, not published books. I believe that's a safe assumption, but with no data, it's only an assumption.

If true, then I would not expect the announcement of 5E to significantly reduce 4E revenue. After all, anyone currently playing 4E and paying for a subscription is unlikely to suddenly declare "Well, 4E is eventually going away, so I'll stop playing immediately." In fact, I suspect WOTC would see a surge in subscriptions, as some groups attempt to download as much content as possible before it goes away.

That suggests that the critical period is not from Announcement to Release, but from Release to 4E Shutdown. Would WOTC shut down 4E Insider immediately? Would they continue support for a few months? Longer? How they handle the transition post-5E release will be critical.

This looks like a minefield to me, with WOTC having far more bad options than good. The only certainty is that some folks will excoriate them, no matter what they do.
 

Well, D&D has a history of putting out books towards the end of an edition that pre-sage the next, right? Like UA for 1st edition.
Well, UA actually came out in 1985, so a full four years before the release of 2e. However it is true, that it contained material that EGG had originally slated for a revision of the game and so it gave some sort of insight on where EGG would have lead the game had he remained in charge of it.
 

One other thought. If I'm correct in assuming that a 5E announcement will have minimal impact on 4E revenue, then WOTC can spend more time building interest in 5E.

If I remember correctly, as soon as WOTC announced 4E, 3E sales dropped significantly. This put WOTC in a position where revenue was dropping for their current product, but they didn't yet have a new product to replace that revenue. They naturally felt a need to minimize the transition time.

If 4E revenue roughly holds steady, then WOTC can take more time for both playtesting and marketing, building interest in the new edition without having to trash the existing one, nor rush the new one.
 

One other thought. If I'm correct in assuming that a 5E announcement will have minimal impact on 4E revenue, then WOTC can spend more time building interest in 5E.

If 4E revenue roughly holds steady, then WOTC can take more time for both playtesting and marketing, building interest in the new edition without having to trash the existing one, nor rush the new one.

That's a mighty big assumption, though. WotC have never done an edition transition since bringing in the DDI, so they can't know how it will turn out. It might have minimal impact... or it might kill DDI stone dead as people rush for the exits. Certainly, it wouldn't be surprising to see the rate of new subscriptions drop dramatically as people adopt a "wait and see" attitude.

Because there's no way to know what will happen, the less risky option would seem preferable - and that means keeping the edition transition short, as it has been in the past. Basically, I would expect that by the time they confirm they are working on 5e, it will basically be a done deal, and they'll give us the release dates at the same time.
 

WotC have never done an edition transition since bringing in the DDI, so they can't know how it will turn out. It might have minimal impact... or it might kill DDI stone dead as people rush for the exits.

You're right, there's no way to be sure. But my question is, why would people rush for the exits? If they're currently playing 4E, and DDI is meeting their needs, why stop just because a new edition is going to show up sometime in the future?

I do see the potential for two negative impacts to DDI revenue:
1) As you say, brand new subscriptions may fall off, as pepole choose not to jump into 4E if there's a clear timeline for replacing it. This may be balanced by lapsed subscribers coming back temporarily to grab content. And without knowing how many new subscribers they are getting now, we can't judge if it's already a serious problem.
2) if WOTC decides to simply stop producing new 4E content well before 5E arrives, that might lead to an exodus.
 

I bought the core 4e books and have barely used them but have found interest in 3.5 very much waned as well. I would welcome 5e and hope that it is an edition that is well written with a solid mix of mechanics and RP (I am of the personal mind that 4e plays out a bit mechanics focused due to all the powers). I would hope the edition is such a success that it would bring together the groups of gamers that have split off into 4e, pathfinder, stayed with 3.5 or that have gone back to even older editions.

I wholly agree with the poster that each hew edition was heralded by a book that basically 'broke' its system or heralded a new style of mechanic or play style. That might be Unearthed Arcana for 1e, Skills and Powers for 2e or Tome of battle for 3.5 but each time it has happened. Being as I have not kept up with 4e beyond core I cannot say whether that has happened yet for the newest edition but with the number of people I know who haven't embraced 4e it may not have to.

I'm certain I am biased in saying this but others can tell me if they agree or not. I feel like 4e is the least embraced edition of the rules to date by 'all' gamers which in turn affects its market. This alone could be a cold realization that its time for a new edition if it is in fact a true observation on my part (and I'm certain one that would be argued fervently).

I do not wish for an edition war but a real debate on if people think this line of thought about a shrinking market is in fact true. Does 4e garner as much interest to 'all gamers'? and does it attract new gamers as well as older editions did? If the answer to those questions are each no we will see a 5e sooner than later.
 

You're right, there's no way to be sure. But my question is, why would people rush for the exits? If they're currently playing 4E, and DDI is meeting their needs, why stop just because a new edition is going to show up sometime in the future?

Sure, if you assume people are logical... :)

My guess is that, just after the announcement, DDI would see a spike in one-month subscriptions as people jump in, download everything, and jump out. (Out of fear that when 5e hits the 4e stuff will go away.)

I would expect to see the numbers of other new subscriptions drop fairly sharply, as people wait and see what the new edition brings. And I would expect a lot of people to cancel their auto-renew, allowing their subs to lapse, again so they can wait and see what the new edition brings.

I would expect WotC to plan for these things. Heck, if they're smart, they could even offer some incentive for people to stay. ("The shiny new DDI will cost more, but if you maintain your subscription you get the first year at the lower cost!" or "we've got these new features, but they'll only be available during the transition period," or something.)

To be honest, I wouldn't expect people to cancel en masse and demand refunds. But I'm not quite certain enough to definitively rule out that worst-case scenario. And because of that risk (small as it is), I would expect WotC to stick with the model of the short edition transition.

But that's a guess. It may, of course, be completely wrong. :)
 

I would expect WotC to plan for these things. Heck, if they're smart, they could even offer some incentive for people to stay.

Here's a thought. What if WotC released the 5E playtest material via DDI? Who would drop subscription with a chance to test the new edition? They'd probably have a massive increase in subscriptions on their hands.
 

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