Any news out of PAX East?

[Guest 85555]

Which I think for 5th Edition is more important than it ever was. This game will have to stand on its own legs. With lots of 3rd Ed fans disliking 4th Edition and the other way round, people won't just hop on to "upgrade" the rules of their game. Now they know they will be getting a new game from a company that for many had gone into a completely wrong direction.
For whatever reason, 4th Edition wasn't regarded as comercially sustainable, so they started scrapping it and developing a new game very early on. Which means 5th Edition has to be significantly more successful, while facing a much higher degree of doubt. An OGL may well be what makes or breaks the whole thing (though in either case, there won't be a way to tell if this aspect made the difference or something else).

I agree. We will see.

The real trick for them is while many (probably a majority) of custumers felt they went in the wrong direction (including myself and i suspect you as well), a large number thought they went in the right direction with 4E. The video from pax was great because they acknowledged this while basically saying the issue wasnt the 4e playstyle itself but the that they only catered to one style among the myriad out there. Can't speak for 4E fans, but to me that seems the way to go about it.

I also really liked hearing that someone on the design team understood one of the critical concerns about wizards (a lot of us want more spells for out of combat beguiling and similar endeavors).

 

[Yora]

Which is the big problem. If everyone had hated 4th Edition, they could just say let's pretend it never happened and update the 3rd Edition game.
Getting only the 4th Edition fans to go to 5th Edition won't be enough, because then they are exactly where they were before announcing 5th Edition. But even if the 3rd Edition fan group is larger, they are more difficult to get back as many have turned away from the brand and the company long ago. And a compromise is only at risk for satisfying neither.
So they will need every edge they can get to get people interested in 5th Edition, and an active 3rd party community is something I consider to be making a quite substential difference. It's not just the commercial publishers, but also amature writers who keep interest on the internet high even outside WotCs own forums. And "offical encouragement" by ways of an SRD instead of a legal limbo does make a difference in that regard.

5th Edition won't be a commercial success based on the sales of the Player's Handbook. Accepting losses on PHB sales should pay in the long run for the additional exposure the brand gets from it.

 

[GM Dave]

I agree that was funny, but Paizo really is the wild card here. I imagine both paizo and wizards have a shared anxiety about each other's future plans.

I don't think Paizo is much of a wild card here.

I listened to an interview recently on 3.5 Private Sanctuary, Know Direction 35 Podcast with Jason Bulman.

Know Direction 35 - Bulmahn ARG UE

He was discussing the new products for Paizo line.

He seems very satisfied with sales, company size, and how the products are currently being received.

I don't see any desire by Paizo to make changes in their current strategy in the next couple of years.

They aim to make only 3 to 4 big books a year along with their monthly path products.

They also make money selling products of other dealers/companies which means they don't need to only sell Paizo products to survive in the market. There store sells like Amazon to everyone.

 

[Guest 85555]

I don't think Paizo is much of a wild card here.

I listened to an interview recently on 3.5 Private Sanctuary, Know Direction 35 Podcast with Jason Bulman.

Know Direction 35 - Bulmahn ARG UE

He was discussing the new products for Paizo line.

He seems very satisfied with sales, company size, and how the products are currently being received.

I don't see any desire by Paizo to make changes in their current strategy in the next couple of years.

They aim to make only 3 to 4 big books a year along with their monthly path products.

They also make money selling products of other dealers/companies which means they don't need to only sell Paizo products to survive in the market. There store sells like Amazon to everyone.

While they are probably satisfied with current sales (seem to be doing well) 5E presents a real threat to that. So I would be surprised if they are not at least looking at different options to curb that. They are in a position to be the biggest rpg company if they play their cards right. But if wotc plays ots cards right, they could seriously hurt the pathfinder bottom line.

 

[Yora]

But what would they gain by being the largest company?

 

[Guest 85555]

But what would they gain by being the largest company?

When I say largest company, i mean have the biggest share of the market (not biggest in terms of structure like hasbro). If their goal is to make money, which I assume it is, being the Biggest rpg company would mean more profit and customers (and likely translate into greater longevity)---plus more resources to invest in their lines.

 

[Gundark]

I agree that was funny, but Paizo really is the wild card here. I imagine both paizo and wizards have a shared anxiety about each other's future plans.

Agreed. While their (Paizo) adventure path business most likely will remain as is, the rpg side (core book,splat book) could in theory take quite a hit.

 

[Gundark]

I don't think Paizo is much of a wild card here.

I listened to an interview recently on 3.5 Private Sanctuary, Know Direction 35 Podcast with Jason Bulman.

Know Direction 35 - Bulmahn ARG UE

He was discussing the new products for Paizo line.

He seems very satisfied with sales, company size, and how the products are currently being received.

I don't see any desire by Paizo to make changes in their current strategy in the next couple of years.

They aim to make only 3 to 4 big books a year along with their monthly path products.

They also make money selling products of other dealers/companies which means they don't need to only sell Paizo products to survive in the market. There store sells like Amazon to everyone.

This is what I would expect Paizo to do. Hold the line and only make changes if need be .

 

[Sunseeker]

This is what I would expect Paizo to do. Hold the line and only make changes if need be .

Indeed, unlike the constant arms race between Marvel and DC comics, there's no real incentive for Paizo to do what the other guy does just for the sake of "keeping up with the Jonses". Paizo isn't in an arms race with Wizards. The edition Paizo supports is no longer supported by Wizards, most of their money comes from creating fun things to do with the content as opposed to creating new crunch.

I wouldn't be surprised if they started dabbling in "4.25", if 4e is essentially done and no longer going to be supported, then Paizo's same structure of producing adventures, and only minimal splat could be applied quite effectively.

 

[Yora]

Trying to adapt to changing situations before you even know what the situation will be is a very bad move. You need to be able to identify what you don't like about the change of circumstances, what caused it, and what you want to change in your favor. And then you start thinking about your response to the change.

If 5th Ed. doesn't really get popular, Paizo can keep on selling PF adventure paths like they always did.
If 5th Ed. turns out to be huge and wins over PF players, and there's an OGL, and WotC adventures are still few and sub-par, then making 5th Ed adventures would be pretty much a no-brainer. But if WotC adventures suddenly turn out to be extremely good, then it might be a better idea to focus all resources on the PF crowd instead of trying to making it big in the 5th Ed adventure path business.
It really depends completely on what happens, but is yet completely unpredictable.