Mark CMG
Creative Mountain Games
That doesn't change if 4e is OGL, as well.
Yeah, it does in so far as folks go with the new edition which has an OGL because that's where the money is. The evidence for this supposition is in what Paizo was saying at the time and what folks have been able to make of retrocloning. Fact of the matter is that all previous editions of the game are now available in some form under the OGL except 4.XE because 4.XE is designed to confound the OGL while previous editions were not.
But, to your point, folks are NOT making tons of money (the kinds of money that make you competitive with WotC) on pre-3.XE editions despite them all having OGL support because there is no major publisher pushing a pre-3.XE edition, as Paizo is pushing 3.XE and WotC is pushing 4.XE. One might argue that C&C and Hackmaster represent such efforts to support older editions but neither seems to make the kind of money that makes their companies competitive with WotC and it should also be noted that HM isn't OGL.
Which brings us back to the reality that ANY pre-4.XE edition can be supported with or without the OGL but Paizo, with its plethora of former WotC employees is competitive with WotC through PF but PF wouldn't exist without 4.XE being non-OGL. Claiming there would be a PF if 4.XE had been OGL and Paizo had been supporting a 4.XE OGL is simply ignoring the realities of what we actually know.