Conference Championship Round Picks
I had the Colts, Bears, Saints & Bolts last week. 3-1 isn't bad. If I went with my gut in the Pats game I would have been 4-0. 5-3 overall isn't terrible and I'll take it, even if I should have never picked the Giants in the first round(NY fan, here). But enough about me! Pull up a chair, put some breakfast in front of the laptop, and on to my picks for the last really fun football Sunday of this season!
Saints @ Bears
How can you not like the feel-good Saints after the disasters of last year? They are fun to watch. From Brees' excellent quarterbacking, the best in the playoffs by far at his position to the Deuce/Bush tandem and Sean Peyton's clever play calling there isn't a more exciting offense around.
The Bears looked very beatable last week. They made the Seahawks look good. Alexander played great against their vaunted defense resulting in 24 points and a trip to overtime. Overtime! Against a team that should have lost to the Cowboys at home and looked very soft. Well, it was the Bears who looked a little soft and a little jittery. Grossman had a good game for him. He made some excellent throws when it mattered and coughed the ball up a few times while looking terrible. In all, I was not impressed.
That brings up tonight's contest. If the Bear's D plays like that against the Saints, they will get into a shootout that they do not want against a hot team with karma on their side. With the exception of the Redskins game at home the Saints have looked like a solid winner for two months while the Bears have looked shaky, especially at QB.
There are three factors I'm basing my pick on: The weather/home field for the Bears, the QBs & special teams.
The forecast is for snow (60% chance, low wind, temp ~30F) and that does not bode well for the long passing game and the versatile Saints offense. Anything that can take away a chunk of their attack is a big plus for the other team. It will be interesting to see if the running back tandem could be enough in the elements against a banged up Bears Defense if they can look for the run. That said, the Saints have been a solid road team so take away a little of the home field advantage away from the Bears there.
There isn't even a question of who the better QB is. Grossman looks terrible under pressure and turns the ball over when on the run. Brees is the opposite and the perfect example of a battle tested veteran. If the game is close, the QBs are a big factor. Grossman is very good on deep passes but I don't expect to see many of those if the weather is bad.
And last, special teams. Hester was a non-factor against the Seahawks. He was fumbling punts and looked like the rookie he is. For much of the season the Bears counted him a weapon for scoring. I expect him to bounce back, even if the weather is bad, and have a good game to at least give the Bears some decent field position.
So, which Grossman do we see? The shaky version or the composed version? Smith did a good job of opening up the offense early last week to give him some confidence. He made some bad plays along the way but got the job done with a huge pass in OT. I say we see that same guy this week as the Saints don't have the defensive personnel to take advantage of the shaky QB.
I could see both games coming down to OT. If the weather is bad, each team should score in the early 20's. If it's not snowing, it will be cold but we'll see more points, probably in the 30's. The Saints are the sexy pick, the feel good pick and the team I'll be routing for - hard.
But the Super Bowl we all want to see isn't going to happen. The Bears, with an inspired defensive effort squeak one out at home, in the elements.
Patriots @ Colts
By far the better of the 2 games, and for obvious reasons. We've heard, read and seen all week about Manning's quest for a ring, his struggles against Belichick's Defense and the comparisons to Marino's inability to win the big one. Then, the largest knock against Manning - choking in the playoffs. Manning can put that all behind him in one fell swoop by beating the Pats. There will never be a better time than now.
Manning played well enough to win last week against a terrific defense. He could have been picked 2 more times if Ray Lewis hadn't tipped the ball away at the last second. No touchdowns is not a good day for him but he did seal the game with a perfect finishing drive that killed the clock and put the game away. He converted the 3rd downs on that drive that his team needed and that was enough. The Ravens played a terrible game and McNair looked done. That interception as they were going in for a touchdown was the turning point of that game. Credit the Colts Defense. Huh? More on this in a second...
The Pats stole one in San Diego. McCree's pick-n-fumble was all Brady needed to pull himself off the mat and work his late game magic. Brady could have had 6 picks in that game and was under fire the whole time. It turns out that Belichick couldn't take away LDT. And in the critical last quarter, the Bolts stopped giving the best player in the league the ball when he was killing the Pats all day. Wow. Terrible play calling by the current head coach of the Dolphins. Credit Brady for making the plays when needed and fault the Bolts for essentially giving them the game when they had all the advantages.
So now, the Colts end up with the AFC Championship game at home. That's what they need if they are ever to beat the Pats. Both QB's looked terrible last week and that won't happen again. The Pats offense is better than they looked last week and the Colts will play much better on the carpet at home. The Pats offense is not scary but they have the best clutch QB on the planet which gives them a fighting chance for 50 minutes and turns into an advantage in the last 10 + OT.
Both defenses look good and the Colts are even playing a little physical which is great to see. Bob Sanders has really helped them get a little swagger. But then you have the mastermind on the other sideline in Belichick. Overall, if this game was in Foxborough the Pats should be a heavy favorite and I would give the Colts little chance. But it's not so I'm calling this one an even battle.
I see Special Teams playing a big role in this one. Score will probably be somewhere tight in the mid-20's. The only way I see this not coming down to the final drive is if somehow Manning is able to score a few quick touchdowns and let the Colt's pass rushers pin back their ears and go after Brady. And I don't see that happening.
This is a different Colts team than in the past. They don't need an A+ effort from Manning to win (although it would be nice). That will get them over the hump against the hated Pats who will not go easily. The Pats have gotten all the breaks in their Super Bowl runs and what better place for the clock to strike midnight than in Indy? I'll take the Colts to stay unbeaten at home this season and send Manning into the Super Bowl spotlight he deserves.
Enjoy the games, everyone!