Can computers predict which movies will flop?

[WayneLigon]

The delays in release are another bad sign that editors are struggling to make a decent movie out of a bunch of film that's drek. Or am I mixing this up with some other movie; it has had delays in the release date, hasn't it?

It was originally slated for release in November; I remember seeing a single review for it quite some time back, then notihng more. I can't find any mention of extensive re-editing or whatever; It might be that they didn't want to stand up against the Harry Potter / Narnia / King Kong triad. Or maybe they thought a movie about killing Indians and taking their stuff was a little gauche to be released right at Thanksgiving. Who knows? Now it goes into limited release on Christmas Day, and wide release January 13.

It didn't look all that interesting. Didn't they basically do all that in ... something fairly recent? Can't remember what it was.

 

[WayneLigon]

In my experience sci fi was not hugely popular at that time; it was viewed as a niche market at best. It was a massive shock to anyone I knew that a movie like that could be such a hit.

That was my experience as well. It totally changed how people - and studio execs - saw science fiction.

 

[WayneLigon]

Huh. Double post.

Might as well make use of the space

Box Office Mojo's movie receipts so far this week.

 

[David Howery]

if they put "Snakes on a Plane" into this computer program, would the computer crash, curse, smoke, and die?

 

[satori01]

My most recent prediction vis-a-vis Hollywood mindset vs. mainstream America: Brokeback Mountain is not a movie that mainstream America wants to see. Because of the critical buzz and controversial subject matter, it'll do a brisk business the first few weeks from either the sympathetic portion of the audience, or just people who want to see what all the hullaballoo is about, but after that, ticket sales will remain low but steady. Given that it's a relatively low budget "romance" movie, and not a blockbuster, it'll be modestly successful enough, though. But that's a great example of a "Hollywood" movie that reflects tastes and values of Hollywood itself, but not of mainstream America, in my opinion. It won't be a huge hit.

C'mon; you can't pay enough for wisdom like that...

Brokeback Mountain is a "Hollywood" film in the same vein that Clint Eastwood directed films are "Hollywood".
Most people associate the term "Hollywood" with flashy special effects and little heart or character development. Smoke and Mirrors and little substance. War of the Worlds is Hollywood, Mystic River would generally not be considered "Hollywood". Likewise I would suggest a film about 2 people working on a Ranch in the west and falling in love
while being of the same gender would not fit the "Hollywood" moniker.

Then again whatever people dont like they term "Hollywood".

As for "West Coast Values", I havent a clue where to begin to process that. I guess if you are against functioning economies, multi-culturalism, and tolerance, those values might seem scary.

Really I havnt a clue what you could possibly mean, but I guess the left coast is just strange to those people not in it, or what I suspect more likely, portrayed badly and a whipping boy for whatever they dont like.

 

[Joker]

Brokeback Mountain is a "Hollywood" film in the same vein that Clint Eastwood directed films are "Hollywood".
Most people associate the term "Hollywood" with flashy special effects and little heart or character development. Smoke and Mirrors and little substance. War of the Worlds is Hollywood, Mystic River would generally not be considered "Hollywood". Likewise I would suggest a film about 2 people working on a Ranch in the west and falling in love
while being of the same gender would not fit the "Hollywood" moniker.

Then again whatever people dont like they term "Hollywood".

As for "West Coast Values", I havent a clue where to begin to process that. I guess if you are against functioning economies, multi-culturalism, and tolerance, those values might seem scary.

Really I havnt a clue what you could possibly mean, but I guess the left coast is just strange to those people not in it, or what I suspect more likely, portrayed badly and a whipping boy for whatever they dont like.

Much more eloquent and concise than what my response would be .

 

[Mark CMG]

Hmmm... Alright, I'll put my money where my mouth is. But I don't know all of those movies mentioned, having not seen a teaser/trailer or poster, or heard any buzz, so for those I've simply ignored them...

• Munich -- Moderately successful. Since this doesn't look like a really big budget movie (although I could be wrong there) it'll be a good investment anyway.
  
• The Producers -- Moderate success. On Broadway this has done very well, and lots of folks will want to see it for that reason alone to see what the big deal is. Not a blockbuster though.
  
• Rumor Has It... -- Moderately successful, but this is a low budget sex-comedy, so that's within expectations.
  
• Fun with Dick and Jane -- Based on what I've seen of it so far (not much) I think this will do well enough. It depends a lot on things I don't know about it, though, like is it actually funny or not. The concept's OK, though.
  
• Cheaper by the Dozen 2 -- Very minor hit, edging towards bomb. It depends on the budget if this is successful or not, because I don't predict big sales. Although it may pick up a lot of folks looking for a family movie and not seeing many other options in theaters at the moment; that could give it some extra legs.
  
• The New World -- Bomb. Looks too PC and overtly Oscar ambitious, which tends to turn off mainstream audiences. Of course, that could be a function of poor marketing, but I don't see this one getting anyone excited. The delays in release are another bad sign that editors are struggling to make a decent movie out of a bunch of film that's drek. Or am I mixing this up with some other movie; it has had delays in the release date, hasn't it?
  
• King Kong -- it'll be a hit. People will see it on name (both the King Kong name and Peter Jackson name) alone. It'll need to be, though--with a budget like it has, it'll have to make crazy money to be profitable. Based on early feedback, it just might be good enough to do it, too.

You've left yourself more wiggle room than a garter snake slipping through a hulu-hoop.

Let's put some numbers on each film and let's see how we do, shall we? Let's see if we can guess within two million dollars on the Domestic Total Gross of each of these films through their first theatre run per Box Office Mojo. But let's also put a 26 week cap, just in case some little theatre somewhere is still dragging one along to make it's budget back, ALA Cinderella Man (which is a fine film, I'm sure, but too long "in theatres" IMO). Here's my numbers -

• King Kong - $210,000,000
  
• Munich - $175,000,000
  
• Fun with Dick and Jane - $110,000,000
  
• The Producers - $105,000,000
  
• Wolf Creek - $90,000,000
  
• Cheaper by the Dozen 2 - $75,000,000
  
• Rumor Has It... - $50,000,000
  
• The New World - $45,000,000

Seriously, the most difficult films I find predicting (straight up as a flop or success) are things like Saw II, The Dukes of Hazzard, March of the Penguins, and Herbie: Fully Loaded which, to me, are doing inexplicably well.

 

[Flyspeck23]

I think Ramesh Sharda is on to something, and it scares me. Check out the link to his 2002 paper in the news link above. His model is very accurate. Naturally, the factors he speaks of do not include nor even nod to the effect of creativity and artistic voice in movies. This makes hits above all else IMHO.

Some people in this thread seem to think that creativity and artistic voice aren't factors. I mean, if all you're doing is catoring the mainstream taste, how much creativity could be involved?

And that's at least half correct. The really (financially) successful movies are hardly creative - more often than not. Then again, a movie industry trying to produce blockbuster after blockbuster and nothing else would be awfully boring.

 

[Umbran]

Seriously, the most difficult films I find predicting (straight up as a flop or success) are things like Saw II, The Dukes of Hazzard, March of the Penguins, and Herbie: Fully Loaded which, to me, are doing inexplicably well.

For one of them, it's entirely explicable. Penguins man! Penguins! They just charm the socks off of people. Don't be surprised if Hollywood catches on, and instead of having big special effects budgets, they start having big penguin budgets.

 

[Dagger75]

Just wait for all the clones,

March of the Cats,
March of the dogs
Flight of the Birds
Single File line of the Lemmings
Running of the Turtles


Just watch.