Careful Attack/Sure Strike: A mathematical analysis

[Nifft]

Just poking at the math a bit, I noticed that Sure Strike is *always* inferior to Reaping Strike if you have a positive strength modifier. (...) Rangers are a little more complicated with their Twin Strike and Hunter's Quarry, but the fighter is easy -- Sure Strike is a sucker bet.

Sure Strike is inferior to a Basic attack if you have a half-decent Strength modifier, except at "natural 20 hits" range.

Some are saying that Twin-Strike isn't overpowered, but given it's versatility, it looks that way to me.

Twin Strike is a very good power. It's almost as good as Righteous Brand.

IMHO Twin Strike is a large part of why Rangers are so awesome. Nerfing the power nerfs every well-made Ranger, and I don't think they're broken, so I don't think it's necessary to alter them.

Cheers, -- N

 

[PSchirf]

While I agree that it's what makes Rangers so awesome, it's also an option that every intelligent ranger player uses as it's bread and butter regardless of situation, with other at-wills falling to the wayside. I'm not trying to reduce the effectiveness of the power in all cases, just make it so there are situations where a ranger would opt for another attack. Maybe we'll see viable options in Martial Powers.

 

[KarinsDad]

I think all At Will powers should be slightly more powerful / useful than a Basic Attack.

Reaping Strike = Basic Attack plus 1/2 Str mod on miss
Twin Strike = Basic Attack - mod damage + Basic Attack - mod damage

Most At Will powers in the game system are a Basic Attack plus something else (e.g. Cloud of Daggers = Basic Attack plus continuing damage in square).

Hence, Sure Strike and Careful Attack should also be slightly more powerful / useful than a Basic Attack.

The easiest way to do that is to add mod damage to them.

Sure Strike = Basic Attack at +2 to hit
Careful Attack = Basic Attack at +2 to hit

Then, Sure Strike averages about the same damage as Reaping Strike.

For example, first level 50% to hit with Str 18 and Longsword.

Reaping Strike = .45 * (4.5+4) + .05 * (12) + .5 * (2) = 5.425 average damage

Sure Strike = .55 * (4.5+4) + .05 * (12) = 5.275 average damage

Doing this balances these At Will powers.

Without doing this (i.e. according to RAW):

Sure Strike = .55 * (4.5) + .05 * (8) = 2.875 average damage

This is just plain unbalanced. Nobody with any mathematical capability would ever take this power. It's about half as powerful / useful as Reaping Strike and should be errataed.

 

[Ulorian - Agent of Chaos]

I think all At Will powers should be slightly more powerful / useful than a Basic Attack.

Yes.

Most At Will powers in the game system are a Basic Attack plus something else (e.g. Cloud of Daggers = Basic Attack plus continuing damage in square).

Yes!

Hence, Sure Strike and Careful Attack should also be slightly more powerful / useful than a Basic Attack.

OMG, YES!

The easiest way to do that is to add mod damage to them.

NOOOOOO!!!!!!!! See posts 1, 16, 27, 33, 49 in this thread to see why this doesn't work (for Careful Attack anyway... you could debate its utility for Sure Strike, since it doesn't compete with a Twin Strike-like power).

 

[Kordeth]

NOOOOOO!!!!!!!! See posts 1, 16, 27, 33, 49 in this thread to see why this doesn't work (for Careful Attack anyway... you could debate its utility for Sure Strike, since it doesn't compete with a Twin Strike-like power).

Hey, Ulorian, I totally figured out the fix! Just give Careful Attack your Strength/Dex bonus to damage! Problem solved!

(Sorry, just wanted to see if I could make your head explode. )

 

[Nifft]

I think all At Will powers should be slightly more powerful / useful than a Basic Attack.

No kidding.

The easiest way to do that is to add mod damage to them.

Sure Strike & Careful Attack need to do something other than pure damage on a hit. Period.

Cheers, -- N

 

[KarinsDad]

NOOOOOO!!!!!!!! See posts 1, 16, 27, 33, 49 in this thread to see why this doesn't work (for Careful Attack anyway... you could debate its utility for Sure Strike, since it doesn't compete with a Twin Strike-like power).

I see your point.

Let's take level 30 since it is most obvious there.

28 Dex plus +6 bow + Hunter's Quarry + Agile Hunter + Lethal Hunter + Weapon Focus + Devastating Critical + Epic Resurgence + Triumphant Attack

With Careful Attack, this is D10 + 9 + 6 + 3D8 + 1 = 35 points of damage on a non-critical hit.

With Twin Strike, this is D10 + 6 + 3D8 + 1 = 26 points of damage on the first non-critical hit and 12.5 more points of damage on a second non-critical hit.

Careful Attack = .55 * (35) + .05 * (39.5+5.5) = 21.5 average damage

Twin Strike =
.0025 * 69 (first criticals, second criticals) +
.0225 * 59 (first criticals, second hits) +
.0250 * 46.5 (first criticals, second misses) +
.0225 * 59 (first hits, second criticals) +
.2025 * 38.5 (first hits, second hits) +
.2250 * 26 (first hits, second misses) +
.0250 * 46.5 (first misses, second criticals) +
.2250 * 26 (first misses, second hits)
=24.64875

Twin Strike does more damage and has more utility (e.g. specials on more criticals, kill 2 minions in a round, etc.).


This is with a 50% chance to hit with a Basic Attack. If one were to decrease that to a 40% chance to hit (which is quite common for solos or elites):

Careful Attack = .45 * (35) + .05 * (39.5+5.5) = 18 average damage

Twin Strike =
.0025 * 69 (first criticals, second criticals) +
.0175 * 59 (first criticals, second hits) +
.0300 * 46.5 (first criticals, second misses) +
.0175 * 59 (first hits, second criticals) +
.1225 * 38.5 (first hits, second hits) +
.2100 * 26 (first hits, second misses) +
.0300 * 46.5 (first misses, second criticals) +
.2100 * 26 (first misses, second hits)
=20.66375

Twin Strike still averages more damage, but not by as much as it does against easier targets.

This means that just a small tweak could balance these out.

For example, +1 to defenses for using Careful Attack (plus mod damage). Careful Attack becomes "being careful".


The real issue here is that Twin Strike is more potent than most any other At Will power in the game system (even multi-target ones like Scorching Burst). That makes it hard to compete against.

 

[Nifft]

The real issue here is that Twin Strike is more potent than most any other At Will power in the game system (even multi-target ones like Scorching Burst). That makes it hard to compete against.

Nah. You get at least two at-will powers. Twin Strike is only one of them.

Careful Attack just needs to be able to compete against the other one.

You won't see smart Strength-based Clerics without Righteous Brand, ever, even after we get a book with more Divine at-will powers.

Cheers, -- N

 

[Ulorian - Agent of Chaos]

hey, ulorian, i totally figured out the fix! Just give careful attack your strength/dex bonus to damage! Problem solved!

(sorry, just wanted to see if i could make your head explode. )

b l a m

 

[Ulorian - Agent of Chaos]

For example, +1 to defenses for using Careful Attack (plus mod damage). Careful Attack becomes "being careful".

I've seen a few similar suggestions to this, and flavour/balance-wise this seems to me the best 'fix' for Careful Attack (aside from just tossing it).