D&D 4E Careful Shot vs Twin Strike....No Contest (4e spoilers)

[Stalker0]

Careful Shot compares poorly with basic attacks... let us leave it at that. Careful Shot should probably be around +6 or +7. I'm not joking about those numbers, as it happens. That is what it needs to be competitive with Twin Attacks, Reaping Strike or Cleave (Fighter's Sure Strike is a Careful Shot clone).

Looking at my numbers, I completely agree, even a +4 isn't really competitive, so yeah I think compared to reaping strike sure strike is utter garbage. Slight chance to hit for my weapon damage, or automatic damage?

I was going to post my math as it was requested, but I have found an error that might favor twin strike even more. I'll probably get it posted tomorrow, almost bed time for me.

 

[parasyte]

Yes, but he's just flat-out doubling the damage per attack together. There's higher math at work here that I'm trying to work out...

First, that was me originally.

Secondly a doubling works in this case because the damage per attack already takes into account the probability of a hit or miss occurring. The second attack does no more or less damage just because the first did or did not hit; barring any monster ability the two are identical.

 

[Stalker0]

I remember prior to the release of the actual rules, careful shot was thought to grant a +4 bonus hit, via the characters released for DDxp. I guess that changed somewhere along the line. I was not impressed with only a +2 bonus to hit with careful shot but keep in mind also that with Twin Strike you dont get any bonus to damage for high Str/Dex. I didn't see this taken into account in any of the calculations above. I would assume most people are going to design a character with a 16 in their prime damage stat (my dragonborn ranger as an 18 str) and when you get to higher levels this means you are missing a lot of extra damage. Although you will probably get offset by just hitting and having a higher crit rate I guess as well, especially since at higher levels you will crit much harder with magic weapons.

Both twin strike and careful shot drop your dex or str bonus to damage.

I'm curious what would happen if careful shot gave you +1 to your crit range? I'll have to run some math and see.

 

[baberg]

I'm getting the same numbers you are now, though I was a bit more rigorous (read: anal) about the calculation. But actually if your intent is to damage the mob you're actually better off going with Careful Attack in the AC 19 case, because your chance to miss there is 80% (16/20) while the chance to miss with both double attacks is 81% (90% squared). But that's an extreme case. In the more realistic case of AC 14 it's very clear cut that Double Attack is best.

Math below, since I spent so long typing it out

[sblock]Assuming AC 19:

Careful Attack
5% chance of doing 8 damage
15% chance of doing 1d8 damage
80% chance of missing

One Double Attack
5% chance of doing 8 damage
5% chance of doing 1d8 damage
90% chance of missing

Both double attacks
Chance to miss with both attacks: 81%
Chance to hit with one attack only: 9%
Chance to crit with one attack only: 9%
Chance to hit with both attacks: .25%
Chance to crit with both attacks: .25%
Chance to hit with one and crit with one: .5%

=====================================

Now, assuming AC 14:

Careful Attack
5% chance of doing 8 damage
40% chance of doing 1d8 damage
55% chance of missing

One Double Attack
5% chance of doing 8 damage
30% chance of doing 1d8 damage
65% chance of missing

Both double attacks
Chance to miss with both attacks: 42.25%
Chance to hit with one attack only: 39%
Chance to crit with one attack only: 6.5%
Chance to hit with both attacks: 9%
Chance to crit with both attacks: .25%
Chance to hit with one and crit with one: 3%
[/sblock]

 

[Lore Raithbone]

Well lets start from the top. Careful attack is STR/DEX + 2 vs AC to hit, with damage as 1W [no +str/dex to damage]. Twin Strike is two attacks at STR/DEX with damage as 1W [also no +str/dex to damage].

Hunter's Quarry adds an extra 1d6 damage to both of these.

Assuming a 10 or higher attack roll normally hits with a basic attack (so a +8 or higher hits with Careful Attack), the chance of hitting at least once is 60% with Careful Attack.

With Twin Strike, the chance of 1 attack hitting is 50%, the chance of both attacks hitting is 25%, and the chance of both attacks missing is also 25%.

Since the chance of a critical hit with Twin Strike is 5% and 5%, 9.75% is the total chance of at least one critical hit when rolling two attacks.

 

[FadedC]

Careful shot seems like it would be fine if it wasn't competing with twin strike. As you level up losing your dex damage will not be as big a deal when your still getting hunter's quary, magic weapon damage, and whatever other damage bonuses you can scrounge up such as weapon focus. Often it's more important just to hit, especially against a higher level enemy.

The problem is just that 2 attacks is almost always better then 1 attack at +2. That's why rapid shot was so good in 3.x.

 

[Otterscrubber]

Here are two tables of data based on damage per round given a ranger who has a +4 damage bonus due to Str and dual wielding bastard swords for style and the fact it matches longbow for damage . Generally speaking if you have a bonus to damage careful shot edges out Twin Strike until you can hit on a 10 or better. If you have a lower damaging weapon careful shot remains better throughout. Guess Twin Strike is good for taking out minions in that case. This does not take into account quarry in any way, fyi. I'll figure that out in a minute...Hope this looks ok:

Careful Shot
Needed to hit Avg Damage Max Damage # attack/rd DPR
20 9.5 14 1 1.65
19 9.5 14 1 2.125
18 9.5 14 1 2.6
17 9.5 14 1 3.075
16 9.5 14 1 3.55
15 9.5 14 1 4.025
14 9.5 14 1 4.5
13 9.5 14 1 4.975
12 9.5 14 1 5.45
11 9.5 14 1 5.925
10 9.5 14 1 6.4
9 9.5 14 1 6.875
8 9.5 14 1 7.35
7 9.5 14 1 7.825
6 9.5 14 1 8.3
5 9.5 14 1 8.775
4 9.5 14 1 9.25
3 9.5 14 1 9.725

------------------------------------

Twin Strike
Needed to to hit Avg Damage Max Damage # attack/rd DPR
20 5.5 10 2 1
19 5.5 10 2 1.55
18 5.5 10 2 2.1
17 5.5 10 2 2.65
16 5.5 10 2 3.2
15 5.5 10 2 3.75
14 5.5 10 2 4.3
13 5.5 10 2 4.85
12 5.5 10 2 5.4
11 5.5 10 2 5.95
10 5.5 10 2 6.5
9 5.5 10 2 7.05
8 5.5 10 2 7.6
7 5.5 10 2 8.15
6 5.5 10 2 8.7
5 5.5 10 2 9.25
4 5.5 10 2 9.8
3 5.5 10 2 10.35

 

[half-dragon dragon]

I don't have books or torrents so the following is merely conjecture on my part, but I did have one thought/question about the elusive usefulness of Careful shot/Sure strike.

Has anyone done a thorough look through the books for 'rider effects' that one would want to make absolutely certain hit? By rider effects I mean extras placed onto an attack from Utility powers, magic items, etc. and ditching str/dex to damage might be worth it for the extra bonus to hit to make sure they affect the target? Because right now, the possible existence of such things is the only thing keeping me from completely writing off these powers.

 

[Oldtimer]

<math>

Why is the longbow's max damage 14? There is no ability bonus damage on Careful Shot.

 

[Stalker0]

Why is the longbow's max damage 14? There is no ability bonus damage on Careful Shot.

Yeah a lot of people seem to be forgetting this.

If careful shot kept its dex, it would be a wonderful power, definitely one I would use. But it doesn't, no damage bonus.

As far as sure hitting powers go, take a look at the rogue's penetrating strike or the paladin's valiant strike. The rogue's is a high attack vs reflex, which for many creatures will give you a +3-+5 advantage then hitting AC. The paladin's valiant strike will net you bare minimum a +1, and often +2 or even +4. And both of those let you keep your stat bonus to damage.