Charles Ryan speaks - 4.6 million Americans claim to play D&D

[eyebeams]

Which is exactly my point. Just because he's Brand Manager doesn't automatically make him an EEEEEEEvvvvvillll Corporate Shill (tm), nor does it mean he's lying. Correlation does not equal causation.

It has nothing to do with EEEEEEvvvillll. But yeah -- he is a corporate shill. It's his job to be a corporate shill. The whole point of his job is to convince you to buy product and convince others that the brand is as strong as he can present it.

It amuses me that people find this simple truth so very difficult to accept.

As for how true it is: There are probably many perspectives under which the numbers are true, perspectives under which they are false, and those in which the numbers mean nothing. In Ryan's place, I would feel that I ought to choose the numbers that put the D&D brand in the best light, because it would be my job.

 

[Belen]

Which is exactly my point. Just because he's Brand Manager doesn't automatically make him an EEEEEEEvvvvvillll Corporate Shill (tm), nor does it mean he's lying. Correlation does not equal causation.

No worries. I think someone peed in his cereal a few years ago and he has never forgiven the world.

I also get the impression that he really dislikes Mr. Ryan, but I could be wrong there.

 

[Turjan]

So, in response to Turjan, I have no trouble topping "best year ever"--how does "best year ever--again!" sound? I don't think I'll ever get tired of that, so, as long as it's true, I'm happy to use it again and again!

Sounds great ! Thanks for sharing !

 

[eyebeams]

Can't we at least get one, just one, single thread about something Charles Ryan said, without getting the "he's the brand manager, and I'll explain it to you really slowly because it seems you are to stupid to figure that out" treatment.

-end rant-

/M

We can have it when people actually bother to respond to the relationship between his position, what he says and what it might actually mean with any respectable depth, rather than blinding accepting it as a bootstrap for people's intense denial of anything that does not unconditionally glorify the prospects of Dungeons and Dragons.

Believe me, I would welcome a time when the sophistication of the discussion actually reaches this point. But it keeps not doing so. Over and over again. Passionately.

With an eye to that, it's interesting to compare the alleged 1.5% of the population from the 2005 scenario with the 3% of the population who play any RPG at all described at:

http://www.theescapist.com/WotCsummary1.htm

Both have, "play at least monthly" requirements and are based on statistical sampling. Yet the projected numbers of the group have risen from the parenthesis in the '99 survey despite the fact that the percentage is less by estimate here.

Interestingly, the '99 survey has D&D players at 66%. Two thirds of that three percent is about 2%, which is not that far off from the current number (leaving aside the problems with the raw numbers in the '99 data).

What does this mean? It's hard to tell. The methodology may have been much different between the two and furthermore, there are the problems with nonsensical projects. The question, though, is which projects are in fact problematic and why.

 

[Jim Hague]

No worries. I think someone peed in his cereal a few years ago and he has never forgiven the world.

I also get the impression that he really dislikes Mr. Ryan, but I could be wrong there.

Well, if Beams=Beamz from other boards, I've got an inkling there and won't go any further into it; it's bad news, no need to dig it up. As far as Charles goes...there's a big difference in being someone who promotes a product and someone who's a shill, at least in my book.

Example: I promote the WLD all the time - I think it's a good, solid product with a lot of gameplay in it. I also wrote a fair-sized chunk of it. Technically, I work for AEG as a freelancer; got a contract that says so. But just because I wrote some of it doesn't make me blind to its faults - and they're present, rest assured - in the material I wrote or the book overall. You can promote a product without being a snake-oil salesman/shill. And that's where I think Charles is coming from.

 

[Thunderfoot]

I personally think this about right - 1.55% is not a widely played game in the grand scheme of things, we are still a niche market. Besides last year in my campaign alone we added 7 new players 2 were drawbacks, they used to play in the 80s and were drawn back due to renewed interest, the other 5 were new players as in NEVER had played before. These were all adult players too, not kids, between the ages of 25 - 35. If you match that with the marketing campaigns and some of the quote marketing data, it appears that this is right on the money.
One reason I feel for the resurgence is because of folks our age are introducing the hobby to our SOs or in a lot of cases spouses (two of our new players are spouses of players and 1 is the fiance' of a player). Of course this means that there is probably a near future drop in sales due to life happening (as it did at the end of the 80s) but, in this field, that should be expected. Let's not blow this all out of proportion. Frankly, in about 10 - 15 years I suspect we'll be having this same conversation all over again.

 

[eyebeams]

Well, if Beams=Beamz from other boards, I've got an inkling there and won't go any further into it; it's bad news, no need to dig it up.

Rest assured it's because I'm a Bad Man, if it makes everyone feel better instead of discussing what's happening.

As far as Charles goes...there's a big difference in being someone who promotes a product and someone who's a shill, at least in my book.

Example: I promote the WLD all the time - I think it's a good, solid product with a lot of gameplay in it. I also wrote a fair-sized chunk of it. Technically, I work for AEG as a freelancer; got a contract that says so. But just because I wrote some of it doesn't make me blind to its faults - and they're present, rest assured - in the material I wrote or the book overall. You can promote a product without being a snake-oil salesman/shill. And that's where I think Charles is coming from.

What would that difference be, exactly? You seem to think I'm accusing Charles Ryan of being a liar or a bad person. This is not the case.

If you are so offended, feel free to describe what you think a "corporate shill" is, and we can write it off to different sensibilities in slang.

 

[Ankh-Morpork Guard]

But no, it does not mean lies or really anything that most people would call "corporate propaganda"; I respect (and rely on) our core gamers too much to ruin my relationship with you through petty misrepresentations. Plus I'm really just a call-em-as-you-see-em kind of guy.

But that could all be LIES!!! LIES, ALL OF THEM!



Thanks for chiming in.

 

[Jim Hague]

Rest assured it's because I'm a Bad Man, if it makes everyone feel better instead of discussing what's happening.

I was responding to another poster's comment, EB. No need to get riled. I couldn't care less if you're eyebeamz or not; I was just clarifying for another poster.

What would that difference be, exactly? You seem to think I'm accusing Charles Ryan of being a liar or a bad person. This is not the case.

If you are so offended, feel free to describe what you think a "corporate shill" is, and we can write it off to different sensibilities in slang.

I described what I consider a shill (equivalent to snake-oil salesmen, willing to say anything, true or not, to get you to buy product) above. As for accusations...well, yeah. Call me weird, but the general tone doesn't seem to be one of skepticism but derision because of Charles' employer. And me, I don't think the veracity of a statement should be based on your job, but rather on your moral character.

IIRC, you used to work for WW, yes? The feeling I'm getting (and not just from you) would be equivalent to someone saying 'Yeah, that EB, he's a neo-Luddite hypocrite!' or 'Yeah, that EB, he likes beating women, because WW put out that game!' Are the preceding statements true? Highly unlikely.

All I'm saying is consider the person different from the position. Or not. Hey, nobody's twisting your arm. I'd rather this not turn into some flamewar, honestly...and for the record, I'm not offended by some folks, merely puzzled.

 

[Umbran]

4. If you say thing like that to Umbran, then he will explain how the statistics works in detail, and none of us want that.

MavrickWeirdo, I'd like to thank you. I needed a laugh more than I realized, and this provided me a darn good one.

i'd tell Ben or Chris a mistake they made in a statement.

i believe Umbran (Arnis) was saying just that.

Yep. I could have tried contacting him directly, but between the fact that as a lone unknown individual I would probably not merit a response, and the fact that doing so would not communicate both question and response to the wider audience in a timely fashion, stating it here seemed the berst alternative.

Obviously, it is a statistical projection (we haven't been contacted by 4.6 million people who claimed, to us, that they play D&D).

Well, now it is obvious, yes. My apologies if my questioning seemed nitpicky. I really do prefer to be able to take people at their word, and I don't like to have to play "read between the lines" games that DanMcS would have me do.

If your research shows that 4.6 million people play, say that - I like a well done statistical projection just fine. Please don't tell me that 4.6 million people claim a thing unless you have 4.6 million claims in hand. To do so.. well, it isn't true. Tell me the truth with clarity, and I'll believe you. Tell it to me so I can clearly see that there's some sping going on, and I have to begin to look for where I didn't notice the spin, and everything you say becomes suspect.