D&D 5E Companion thread to Survivor:Backgrounds

[The Glen]

Hey, it was my first thread! I have regerts.

I was thinking of halving all of the values (rounding up) when we hit 50 entries.

I wouldn't wait that long. After the next one gets eliminated cut all the point values in half. Or else we're going to take the better half of a year

 

[CleverNickName]

It's a bit of a balancing act, isn't it?

On one hand, you want to have enough options so the list is balanced, fair, and complete. And on the other, you want it to be fast-paced, interesting and fun. Include too many options, and people will complain that it's taking too long, or includes the wrong things. Include too few, and folks will complain that it isn't fair, or it doesn't have The Obviously Best Options^TM.

And the topic itself matters. The more interesting the topic, the more participants you will get, which means more votes per day, which means the contest will go more quickly--you can get away with having more points. Quieter topics have fewer participants, which slows things down, so fewer points can pick up the pace.

I'm not sure there is a formula, it's more of a gut-thing and there's no single "right way" to do it. Much like D&D!

 

[CleverNickName]

My original plan was to eliminate all of the "Nobility" backgrounds, because blah. But I might have to put that on hold and take out an Archaeologist, if a certain someone doesn't stop downvoting my darling City Watch background...

 

[JoeyD473]

It retrospec should've done a different background vote for each source, i.e. a baulders Gate thread, a GMGtR vote, PHB vote and then have the finalists go agaisnt each other. PHB would still be a little long

We could still change the the coting rules have let people vote up 1 item by 1 and vote down two different items by two each per day . It would speed up the voting a little

 

[RealAlHazred]

I'm not sure there is a formula, it's more of a gut-thing and there's no single "right way" to do it. Much like D&D!

So you're saying there's only One True Way to do it, and we'll be arguing which one it is on this thread for the next forty years?

 

[RealAlHazred]

After reading your comments above, I will do it tomorrow with my next vote.

 

[JoeyD473]

Until we have a new license that doesn't allow us to talk about things on forums

So you're saying there's only One True Way to do it, and we'll be arguing which one it is on this thread for the next forty years?

 

[EzekielRaiden]

so will it get down to a dozen backgrounds before or after April?

By my math, the thread eliminates (on average) 2 backgrounds every page. Which is pretty much spot on, because there are 20 downvotes per page (40 points down), and each thing started with 20 points. Given that that means 35 things were eliminated in 28 days (counting today and the nearly-guaranteed elimination of another contender), that's (very roughly) 1.25 options eliminated per day. If we do see an elimination today, there will be 55 options left; we would have to lose 43 more to hit a dozen remaining, so 43/1.25 = 34.4. So, if the rate remains steady, we should expect to see that in roughly mid-March.

However, it's likely that the thread has been churning through low-hanging fruit (things that haven't gotten any/many upvotes), especially since some options are now in the 40s. So it could slow down quite a bit before reaching the final dozen options. As a result, I am inclined to guess that no, we won't see a dozen options remaining before April 1, unless (like me) there are a significant number of people waiting for the options to condense enough before participating.

I have decided I will participate when I can read all the listed backgrounds without scrolling, which on my screen will occur when there are only 38 left. That means we have to see at least 18 more eliminations (counting the one almost guaranteed to happen today), which should happen in about two weeks, give or take a day.

 

[EzekielRaiden]

I wouldn't wait that long. After the next one gets eliminated cut all the point values in half. Or else we're going to take the better half of a year

By definition, every vote removes 1 point from the board (or, in the instances where you vote down an option with only 1 point remaining, you leave the total unchanged, but those can be accounted for.) Hence, if we tally up the scores and divide by the posting rate, we can get an estimate for how long it will take to eliminate everything in the worst-case scenario, that is, where voters prolong the vote as long as possible.

There are currently 1342 points on the board across 56 options. This means a maximum of 56 "wasted" votes that don't reduce that value, plus 1341 votes that actually do reduce the points by 1 (because there must be at least 1 point left on the board at the end.) Hence, we have an absolute maximum of 1396 posts remaining. Even if we take a very conservative estimate and assume that 40 posts in the thread are non-voting (e.g. corrections, comments, etc.), we would have had 280 votes in the 28 days, which works out to 10 votes per day. That means 140 days from now, or 140+28 = 168 days in total. That is actually (very slightly) less than 6 months, assuming the rate of posting remains constant. If we end up with fewer wasted votes, points remaining on the board for the ultimate winner, and/or increased rate of posting, it will almost certainly be less.

Given I believe there are at least two (myself and at least one other) people who are waiting for the list to shorten and then intending to participate after that, the rate should actually go up with time, not remain constant. So I don't think this will take 6 months....but I do think it's going to run longer than intended.

 

[CleverNickName]

As a result, I am inclined to guess that no, we won't see a dozen options remaining before April 1, unless (like me) there are a significant number of people waiting for the options to condense enough before participating.

"This Contest is Taking Forever," says Reason This Contest Is Taking Forever.