D&D 5E Could D&D Die Again?

Zardnaar

Legend
I’m counting one time D&D almost died. That was when TSR went under. Not sure about the other two times. 4E wasn’t one as it was still the #1 and for a time #2 selling RPG in the world.

Every fad fades. Even D&D. If Hasbro is smart they won’t bank on the extreme popularity of D&D lasting forever. As with most entertainment right now, D&D and MtG are taking hits because people are not isolating and are going back to the office. They kept producing mid-pandemic levels of product when the pandemic is ending.

I'm not including 4E as a time D&D almost died.

Basically in the 70's they ran out of money and the Blumes put money in essentially Gary lost control of D&D at that point. That's the 1st time.

The other time was 85 when the Blumes sold to Lorraine and her money bailed D&D out leading to Gary's eviction.

So basically without other people's money D&D would have died.
 

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tolcreator

Explorer
Of course D&D will die, but that's on a long enough time table. I can see it fading from its current height. But D&D is bigger than WotC: if they go under we still have the OGL and the SRD. For D&D to die its player base needs to die/stop playing.
As to whether it will just fade away back to the nadir of the 2000s, from riding the crest of the zeitgeist like it is now, I wouldn't count on that. If nothing else, in 20-30 years, there will be 2010s/2020s nostalgia media like Stranger Things is now, and D&D is bigger now than it ever was in the 80s.
 


Snarf Zagyg

Notorious Liquefactionist
Will D&D die? Will it be bad?

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One D&D flops for whatever reason. Bit harder to know but if it's 4E 2.0 and it goes out of print in a few years it's probably a flop.
And here we go with your "4e was a huge failure that nearly killed the game" rhetoric again.

It wasn't true before and it isn't true now.

D&D has not "died," other than when TSR nearly drove the IP into the ground and locked it into the tomb with it. None of your fears are going to cause that to happen any time in the even somewhat near future. Hasbro is not in massive financial danger, and issues with MtG are unlikely to cause widespread damage within Wizards.

Get back to me in five years, when we've actually had time to see how "One D&D" has been received. I strongly suspect D&D will be below the heights achieved during the pandemic, but still doing quite well, much to my chagrin as I would prefer much larger changes than Wizards is willing to make.
 

I can't see it dying in the foreseeable future, even if Hasbro closed up shop and nothing for D&D was produced ever again. No other game does what D&D does, the way D&D does it.
 

CleverNickName

Limit Break Dancing
At some point down the road, D&D will lose its charm, and be tossed into the corner, forgotten. I'm thinking it will be in decline around 2025, but we've got plenty of time to see.
D&D will only "die" when the publishers stop bringing new players into the hobby. Only then.
Once that happens, @Stormonu 's prophecy will come to pass.
 

Hex08

Adventurer
Maybe if some private equity firm buys Hasbro and saddles it with billions of dollars in debt forcing it into bankruptcy (Toys R Us). Even then they would only kill it for a little while and eventually they would sell everything off to squeeze out the last little bits of profit. Then the future of the game would depend on the new owners.
 

the Jester

Legend
I'm not including 4E as a time D&D almost died.

Basically in the 70's they ran out of money and the Blumes put money in essentially Gary lost control of D&D at that point. That's the 1st time.

The other time was 85 when the Blumes sold to Lorraine and her money bailed D&D out leading to Gary's eviction.

So basically without other people's money D&D would have died.
None of those stopped me and my group from playing D&D.

I can't see D&D dying until there are no more, or at least very few, people playing it.
 

Clint_L

Hero
D&D's cultural footprint is WAY too big for it to die any time soon - folks referring to it as a "fad" apparently do not understand what the word "fad" means. Fads do not last for half a century.

So D&D will be around for the foreseeable future. It's popularity will go up and down, though WotC are aiming to make it less cyclical than it has been. Right now, it is coming down from a surge in popularity. That was inevitable, as a huge chunk of the new player base get older and get busier, or want to try new things, etc. But just as tons of middle-aged folks who played it as kids have been heavily influenced by it or even come back to the game, that will happen again when the current crop are older. Only it will happen on steroids, because there are a lot more of them than there were of us.

It is probably in for a bit of a correction and decline after several years of crazy growth, and there will be no shortage of folks overreacting and declaring the death of D&D. But millions will just keep on playing it.
 


Ennh.. I think for D&D to truly die, one of three things would need to happen:
  1. The TTRPG hobby needs to die,
  2. They do something with the IP to make it radioactive (likely would have to be deeply and irredemably offensive), or
  3. The economics of game publishing change such that it is so unprofitable as to be actively harmful to produce at any level of demand.
Pretty much. D&D will probably be the last TTRPG standing, unless they do something so ridiculously bad it's unimaginable. Same with MtG and collectable card games, because they're the OG and 800 lb behemoth of the industry. D&D could lose the latter, but likely they'll recover it before collapsing.
 

Art Waring

halozix.com
Though I have been talking bout the mtg stuff a bit, mtg & d&d are separate divisions of wotc, and the d&d side of things has been managed well for the interim, at least from a general perspective (no oversaturation of product, and generally good standing with most of the community as well as 3pp publishers).

I have no idea about one dnd, but nobody does until its release.

That said, D&D has changed hands before and its survived TSR's multiple mishandlings, as well as several previous failed film attempts (the third one was funny though, right?).

It has an OGL ensuring its technical survival, at least in mechanical form. The d&d brand could one day lose popularity or go out of business, but the OGL will survive beyond the original games brand legacy.
 



TerraDave

5ever, or until 2024
PHB, #53 in all Amazon books right now...

The fact that D&D "almost died" so many times, yet is now bigger than ever, might answer the question.

And its hard to kill a game that reaches a critical mass of popularity. (Unless its a licensed property, thats a whole other story). I am sure that some version of, say, Squad Leader, is being sold and played right now.

Can D&D fall, oh yeah, it could fall very very far. We may be witnessing the creation of a whole new generation of grognards (neogrognards, fiveognards, fognards, 5gnards...). Thats not the same is it dying, or even having another late 2e or 4e experience.

Probably just a 6e experience.
 

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